Abstract

China's room air conditioning (RAC) sector is now undergoing a substitution of HCFC-22 (CHClF2) by HFC-410A (a blend of HFC-125 (C2HF5) and HFC-32 (CH2F2)) as refrigerant. However, HFC-410A is also one of the strong greenhouse gases (GHGs) and will be regulated under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol. In this study, an updated HFC-410A emission inventory for China's RAC sector is established for the period of 2006–2017 with a projection to 2050 based on a bottom-up method. Our estimation indicates that the HFC-410A emissions increased from 0.0092 Gg yr−1 to 12.0 Gg yr−1 with an annual increase of 115.7%/yr during 2006–2017. More than 95% of the emissions were from end-of-life process. Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, projected emissions will continuously grow to 89.2 (54.8–126.0) Gg yr−1 in 2050. However, under a mitigation scenario with implementation of the Kigali Amendment, emissions will peak at 63.8 Gg yr−1 in 2039 and then decline to 43.1 (26.1–62.0) Gg yr−1 in 2050, and about 373 Gg of cumulative emission could be curbed during 2018–2050. Additionally, we find that the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Yangzi River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and provincial capital cities show greater HFC-410A emission intensities per unit of area than those of the rest of China during 2009–2017.

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