HIGH-RESOLUTION RADAR DATA ASSIMILATION FOR HURRICANE ISABEL (2003) AT LANDFALL

Abstract

Major damage caused by hurricanes occurs over land during and after landfall. Accurate predictions of winds and precipitation in and around hurricanes at or near landfall are therefore of vital importance for hurricane preparation and damage mitigation, yet they continue to present a challenge for the hurricane research and numerical weather prediction (NWP) communities. This is, in part, due to rapid changes in hurricane intensity and structure during landfall associated with multiscale dynamical and physical interactions in the hurricane core regions and outer spiral rainbands, and also associated with sudden changes of surface conditions. In this study, we demonstrate the capability of improving predictions of hurricane intensity and structures near landfall by assimilating high-resolution, three-dimensional observations from land-based radars in the landfall regions into a mesoscale NWP model. The landfall of Hurricane Isabel on the east coast of the United States in 2003 is the focus of this study. O...