High-accuracy four-dimensional trajectory prediction for civil aircraft

Abstract

AbstractCurrent state-of-the-art trajectory prediction tools typically model aircraft as three-dimensional point-masses, and make a number of simplifying assumptions about the actual and anticipated dynamics states of the aircraft. They are typically based on predefined settings obtained from existing databases such as Eurocontrol’s Bada rather than real-time information, including on the environment, available onboard the aircraft. This significantly limits trajectory prediction performance. This paper proposes a high-accuracy four-dimensional trajectory prediction model for use onboard civil aircraft, as well as by ground-based systems, which addresses these limitations. It is designed for strategic traffic capacity optimisation and conflict-detection and resolution over time-horizons covering the entire duration of a flight. The model incorporates a number of features including a novel flight-control-system and an enhanced flight-script that incorporates new taxonomy and content thereby enabling better definition of aircraft intent. The accuracy of the model is characterised using operational data acquired during a real flight trial. Results show that the performance of the proposed model is significantly better than the current models. Its accuracy is better than the required navigation performance for departure, en route and Non-Precision-Approach phases of flight.