Abstract
The accurate quantification of human error probability (HEP) has long been a main pursuit for most human reliability analysis (HRA) methods. This paper proposes a strategy to analyze and predict human error on the basis of a further modification of the existing cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) in HRA. Through providing a broader definition for the key parameters used in the quantification method, this paper produces a relatively flexible strategy to determine the nominal HEP (HEP 0 ). Basing on this strategy, the actual quantification of HEP in CREAM is able to be applied to more verified conditions. To prove the validity of the method proposed, a case study of spacecraft launch is also introduced, in which the prediction derived from the method is proved consistent with real field data.
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