Head-to-head comparison between vibration-controlled transient elastography and histology in predicting liver-related events due to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease.

Increases and decreases in liver stiffness measurement are independently associated with the risk of liver-related events in NAFLD

Prognostic value of liver stiffness measurement vs. biochemical response in primary biliary cholangitis.

Low accuracy of FIB-4 test to identify people with diabetes at low risk of advanced fibrosis.

The utility of serial liver stiffness measurements (LSM) to predict decompensation in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) remains unclear. We aimed to validate whether comparing serial LSM is superior to using the current LSM to predict liver-related events (LRE) in patients with cACLD. In this retrospective analysis of an international registry, patients with cACLD and serial LSM were followed up until index LRE. We compared the performance of both the dynamic LSM changes and the current LSM in predicting LRE using Cox regression analysis, considering time zero of follow-up as the date of latest liver stiffness measurement. Overall, 480 patients with cACLD with serial LSM were included from 5 countries. The commonest etiology of cACLD was viral (53%) and MASLD (34%). Over a median follow-up of 68 (IQR: 45-92) months, 32% experienced a LSM decrease to levels below 10kPa (resolved cACLD) and 5.8% experienced LRE. Resolved cACLD were more likely to be non-diabetic and had better liver function. While a higher value of the current LSM was associated with higher LREs, LSM changes over time (LSM slope) were not associated with LRE. In multivariable Cox regression, neither the prior LSM nor the LSM slope added predictive value to latest liver stiffness measurement. Once the current LSM is known, previous LSM values do not add to the prediction of LREs in patients with cACLD.

Prognostic performance of the two-step clinical care pathway in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease.

The management of patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) depends on their clinical stage. Thus, noninvasive early recognition of patients with CHC at high risk for developing liver-related events (LREs) is important because it ensures optimal preventative management strategies may be employed that can affect the course of CHC disease. Our aim was to determine whether liver stiffness measurement (LSM) in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients is associated with a risk of LREs, particularly in cirrhotic patients. We carried out a retrospective study on 343 HCV-infected patients stratified according to cirrhosis (LSM<12.5 kPa vs. LSM≥12.5 kPa), and the cirrhotic patient group (LSM≥12.5 kPa) was divided according to risk of esophageal varices (LSM <25 kPa vs. LSM≥25 kPa). For all patients, each incremental unit in the natural logarithm (Ln) of LSM was associated with 14.76 times higher risk of developing LREs (p<0.001). Patients with cirrhosis (LSM≥12.5 kPa) had a higher risk of LREs than patients without cirrhosis (LSM<12.5 kPa) [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 30.97; p<0.001]. When only cirrhotic patients were analyzed (n = 60), each incremental unit in the Ln of LSM was associated with 10.56 times higher risk of developing LREs (p = 0.010). Patients with LSM≥25 kPa had a greater risk for LRE development compared to those with LSM<25 kPa (aHR = 3.65; p = 0.045). The AUROC for predicting the onset of LREs was 0.876 in all patients and 0.729 in cirrhotic patients. In conclusion, LSM was associated with an increased risk of developing LREs in HCV-infected patients, even within the group of cirrhotic patients.

Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) is recommended for risk stratification of patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). More recently, AGILE3 + and AGILE4 have combined LSM with clinical parameters to identify patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis, respectively. However, there are limited data on prognostic performance of these scores in key at-risk subgroups such as those with diabetes and obesity compared to LSM alone. This is a retrospective cohort study including 1903 adult patients with NAFLD from tertiary care centers in the United States and Singapore undergoing VCTE between 2015 and 2022. Primary predictors were FAST, LSM, AGILE3 + , and AGILE4 scores and the primary outcome was liver-related events (LRE). Patients were further stratified by diabetes and obesity status. Prognostic performance was measured using the time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (tAUC) at 5years. In total, 25 LRE occurred and the overall incidence rate of LRE was 4.4 per 1000 person-years. tAUC for predicting LRE in the overall group was significantly higher with AGILE3 + (0.94 [95% CI: 0.90-0.98]) and AGILE4 (0.94 [95% CI: 0.90-0.98]) compared to LSM (0.87 [95% CI: 0.80-0.94]) (p = 0.001 and 0.009, respectively) and FAST (0.73 [95% CI: 0.59-0.86]) (p < 0.001 for both). Similarly, tAUC was significantly higher in those with T2D for AGILE3 + compared to LSM (0.92 vs 0.86, respectively) (p = 0.015) and FAST (0.92 vs 0.73, respectively) (p = 0.008). Among people with obesity, tAUC was significantly higher for AGILE3 + compared to LSM (0.95 vs 0.89, respectively) (p = 0.005) and FAST (0.95 vs 0.76, respectively) (p = 0.0035). Though AGILE4 had a higher tAUC in these subgroups compared to LSM, it did not reach statistical significance. AGILE3 + significantly outperforms LSM and FAST for predicting LRE in patients with NAFLD including in those with diabetes or obesity.

Noninvasive tests, such as Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), liver-stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography, and Fibroscan-AST (FAST), are frequently used for risk stratification in NAFLD. The comparative performance of FIB-4 and LSM and FAST to predict clinical outcomes of patients with NAFLD remained unclear. We aim to evaluate the performance of FIB-4, LSM, and FAST scores to predict clinical outcomes in patients with NAFLD. We included consecutive adult patients with NAFLD with transient elastography performed between 2015 and 2022 from the United States and Singapore. Patients with NAFLD stratified based on baseline FIB-4, LSM, and FAST score were followed up until clinical outcomes notably liver-related events (LREs), LREs or death, death, and major adverse cardiac events. A total of 1262 patients with NAFLD (63% with obesity and 37% with diabetes) with vibration-controlled transient elastography were followed up for median 3.5 years. FIB-4 stratified patients with NAFLD into low-risk (<1.3), intermediate-risk (1.3-2.67), and high-risk (>2.67) in 59.4%, 31.5%, and 9.1%, respectively. No LRE occurred with baseline FIB-4 <1.3, regardless of LSM and FAST score. Higher FIB-4 was associated with a higher risk of LREs within each LSM category. FIB-4 had a higher area under the received operating characteristic curve than LSM or FAST score to predict LRE. In this multicenter international study, FIB-4 and LSM synergistically predicted the risk of LRE. In patients with FIB-4 <1.3, vibration-controlled transient elastography may incorrectly classify up to 10% of the patients as high risk. FIB-4 should be incorporated into risk stratification in NAFLD even among patients who underwent VCTE.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is currently the most common chronic liver disease worldwide. It is important to develop noninvasive tests to assess the disease severity and prognosis. To study the prognostic implications of baseline levels and dynamic changes of the vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE)-based scores developed for the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis (Agile 3+) and cirrhosis (Agile 4) in patients with MASLD. This cohort study included data from a natural history cohort of patients with MASLD who underwent VCTE examination at 16 tertiary referral centers in the US, Europe, and Asia from February 2004 to January 2023, of which the data were collected prospectively at 14 centers. Eligible patients were adults aged at least 18 years with hepatic steatosis diagnosed by histologic methods (steatosis in ≥5% of hepatocytes) or imaging studies (ultrasonography, computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging, or controlled attenuation parameter ≥248 dB/m by VCTE). The primary outcome was liver-related events (LREs), defined as hepatocellular carcinoma or hepatic decompensation (ascites, variceal hemorrhage, hepatic encephalopathy, or hepatorenal syndrome), liver transplant, and liver-related deaths. The Agile scores were compared with histologic and 8 other noninvasive tests. A total of 16 603 patients underwent VCTE examination at baseline (mean [SD] age, 52.5 [13.7] years; 9600 [57.8%] were male). At a median follow-up of 51.7 (IQR, 25.2-85.2) months, 316 patients (1.9%) developed LREs. Both Agile 3+ and Agile 4 scores classified fewer patients between the low and high cutoffs than most fibrosis scores and achieved the highest discriminatory power in predicting LREs (integrated area under the time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.89). A total of 10 920 patients (65.8%) had repeated VCTE examination at a median interval of 15 (IQR, 11.3-27.7) months and were included in the serial analysis. A total of 81.9% of patients (7208 of 8810) had stable Agile 3+ scores and 92.6% of patients (8163 of 8810) had stable Agile 4 scores (same risk categories at both assessments). The incidence of LREs was 0.6 per 1000 person-years in patients with persistently low Agile 3+ scores and 30.1 per 1000 person-years in patients with persistently high Agile 3+ scores. In patients with high Agile 3+ score at baseline, a decrease in the score by more than 20% was associated with substantial reduction in the risk of LREs. A similar trend was observed for the Agile 4 score, although it missed more LREs in the low-risk group. Findings of this study suggest that single or serial Agile scores are highly accurate in predicting LREs in patients with MASLD, making them suitable alternatives to liver biopsy in routine clinical practice and in phase 2b and 3 clinical trials for steatohepatitis.

Reply to: Correspondence on “EASL Clinical Practice Guidelines on non-invasive tests for evaluation of liver disease severity and prognosis – 2021 update”

The prognostic importance of changes in vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) parameters, liver stiffness measurement (LSM), and controlled attenuation parameter (CAP), in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is unknown. A prospective cohort of 288 patients underwent 2 VCTE exams at least 2 years apart, and the relative percentage changes in LSM and CAP were calculated. Outcomes were the occurrence of any liver-related events (LREs), cardiovascular events (CVEs), and all-cause mortality. Multivariable Cox analyses, adjusted for liver and cardiometabolic factors, assessed associations between VCTE parameters changes, both as continuous and dichotomical variables (LSM increase >15% and CAP reduction >10%), and outcomes. During a median follow-up of 6 years, there were 22 LREs, 28 CVEs, and 37 all-cause deaths. For LREs, baseline LSM was the strongest predictor, but LSM increases added further prognostic value (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.5 [1.0-2.1], 1-SD increment). For CVEs, both LSM increase (HR: 1.7 [1.3-2.3]) and CAP reduction (HR: 1.5 [1.0-2.3], 1-SD decrease) were significant predictors. For all-cause mortality, baseline CAP was a protective predictor. When classified into subgroups based on LSM and CAP changes, the subgroup with both increased LSM and reduced CAP had the highest risks for CVEs (HR:5.3 [1.4-19.6]) and all-cause mortality (HR: 3.4 [1.2-9.6]). The highest risk for LREs was observed in the subgroup with increased LSM without CAP reduction (HR: 3.5 [0.9-12.9]). VCTE parameters changes, LSM increase and CAP reduction, provide prognostic information for adverse liver, cardiovascular, and mortality outcomes in individuals with T2D and MASLD.

Hepatology Clinical.

Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by transient elastography (TE) has shown promising results for prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and hepatic decompensation in patients with chronic liver disease (CLD). However, whether prognostic performance of TE differs according to etiology or type of outcome remains further clarification. Performance of LSM for the prediction of HCC and hepatic decompensation was analyzed in a cohort of 4026 patients with asymptomatic CLD. During median 4.5years of follow-up (range 3.0-6.2years), liver-related events (LRE) were observed in 196 patients (166 with HCC, 45 with hepatic decompensation, and 15 with both). In the multivariate analysis, LSM was independent factor associated with LRE and showed high AUROC (0.78). When stratified by type of outcome and etiology of liver disease, LSM showed high AUROC for the prediction of HCC for patients with non-viral hepatitis (0.89), while it showed relatively low AUROC for the prediction of HCC for patients with viral hepatitis (0.75). For the prediction of hepatic decompensation, LSM showed high AUROC for patients with both viral- and non-viral hepatitis (0.90, 0.90, respectively). LSM showed powerful prognostic role for the prediction of LRE in patients with CLD. Notably, HCC risk was not negligible in patients with viral hepatitis who showed LSM value < 10kPa, indicating watchful attention for HCC is still needed for viral hepatitis patients with low LSM.

AGILE 3+ Score for the Diagnosis of Advanced Fibrosis and for Predicting Liver-related Events in NAFLD

Numerous biomarkers have been developed for assessing the presence and severity of liver fibrosis associated with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Fibrosis can be assessed by liver stiffness measurement (LSM) using vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE). Here we examined whether diagnostic accuracy and applicability can be further improved by combining various biomarker measurements with LSM. A total of 278 patients with biopsy-confirmed Japanese NAFLD patients were enrolled. Area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) was evaluated for obtaining the optimum interpretation criteria for LSM by VCTE and comparing various biomarkers alone and in combination with LSM. Liver stiffness measurements including cases with interquartile range (IQR)/median (M) < 30% or LSM ≤ 7.1kPa demonstrated high applicability (90% of patients with NAFLD) and accuracy (AUROC: 0.891) for predicting stage ≥ 3 fibrosis. For all biomarkers tested, the AUROC values for predicting stage ≥ 3 fibrosis were increased when combined with LSM [platelet count, 0.734 vs. 0.912; type-4 collagen 7s (T4C7s), 0.894 vs. 0.921; aspartate aminotransferase to alanine aminotransferase ratio (AST/ALT), 0.774 vs. 0.906; AST to platelet ratio index, 0.789 vs. 0.902; FIB-4 index, 0.828 vs. 0.922; NAFLD fibrosis score, 0.800 vs. 0.906; CA index-fibrosis, 0.884 vs. 0.913; FM-fibro index, 0.920 vs. 0.943; FIB-4 index + T4C7s, 0.901 vs. 0.930], demonstrating the advantage of concurrent LSM. While VCTE has slightly limited applicability (90%) for patients with NAFLD, concurrent measurement with certain biomarkers (especially FM-fibro, T4C7s, and FIB-4) greatly improves the diagnostic accuracy.