Harnessing emerging technologies to address data gaps in natural disaster risk management: A conceptual framework and applications

Achieving long-term effectiveness in natural disaster risk management needs a multifaceted approach. This approach should integrate the disaster’s impact with the region's social, economic, and physical characteristics. A variety of models have been developed to measure the disaster’s impact and propose risk reduction solutions. However, finding the optimal local solution is challenging. To enhance the sustainability of these solutions, it is crucial to consider the local pressing issues, which may be social, economic, cultural, or physical in nature. These issues manifest in the decision criteria when determining the most appropriate risk mitigation or management strategies. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methods are instrumental in evaluating suitable solutions by integrating the outputs of risk assessment models with local priorities, which are represented as rankings of the decision criteria. Since the local experts and community representatives have the most practical information regarding regional issues, their input is essential in ranking the decision criteria. Various preference elicitation methods can be employed to capture experts’ perceptions on important issues.When it comes to disaster risk mitigation and management, the elicitation of stakeholders’ collective perception on important issues is challenging. Different experts with different backgrounds, concerns, and visions for the future can have different perceptions on important issues that should be addressed by the disaster risk mitigation solution. This difference of opinion can lead to conflict of priorities. Since the disaster risk mitigation and management solutions are usually led to policy making or implementation of those solutions, the existing conflicts can have a negative impact on the effectiveness of these solutions. As such, it is vital to address these conflicts and elicit the collective priorities of local stakeholders.In this research, a Simos-based silent negotiation process is developed for eliciting the stakeholders’ collective priorities for natural disaster risk mitigation and management. The developed process is designed to engage the representatives of local communities and other experts and decision-makers and systematically direct them to compromise on less important issues. The designed process benefits from different methods to increase robustness. By directing participants to compromise on their less important issues, this process provides the collective local priorities in mitigating disaster risk. Furthermore, it can gauge the level of conflicts among the stakeholders at the end of the silent negotiation. Additionally, it creates equal opportunity for all the participants to raise concerns and argue their point of view. This creates the opportunity to address issues and concerns from different communities.The process is developed and implemented in the Horizon Europe project MEDiate (Multi-hazard and risk-informed system for Enhanced local and regional Disaster risk management). The MEDiate project is dedicated to creating a decision-support system (DSS) for disaster risk management that considers the complexities of multiple interacting natural hazards and fits the final disaster risk management solution to the characteristics, priorities, and concerns of the local communities and decision-makers. The MEDiate framework is implemented on four different testbeds (Oslo (Norway), Nice (France), Essex (UK), and Múlaþing (Iceland)), each of which has a different multi-hazard pair and different socio-economic characteristics.

The paper found some problems by research of tourism administration in Si Chuan when dealing with 512 WenChuan Earthquake, which include both confused management system and misunderstanding of disaster risk management concept. It showed that earthquake forecasting or prediction is essentially a misconception in earthquake disaster reduction by extensive analyzing both from the theory and the practice. It can hardly give a definite forecasting according to the current technology and it's no use of reducing the impacts of disasters. The paper emphasized it is necessary to change ideas for government and stokeholds on natural disaster and implement risk management of disasters. It's impossible to avoid a natural disaster but could reduce the impacts with maximum from a disaster by risk management. It's an effective approach to enhance the vulnerability and minimize the losses. It will become a better methodology to confront the natural disaster in the future.

With the social and economic development, the losses caused by natural disasters were more and more serious. Natural disaster assessment, management and research are the important field, developing direction and hotspot issues on disaster science and geo-science in resent year. However, because most of the natural disasters are a small sample of events, and uncertainty of natural disasters, so natural disaster risk assessment is particularly difficult based on historical data. Information diffusion theory is useful method for natural disaster risk assessment based on small sample even; it is a fuzzy approach to quantitative analysis of the probability of natural disaster risk. Therefore, the information diffusion theory has unique advantages in natural disaster risk assessment and management. This chapter presents a Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and information diffusion theory-based methodology for spatio-temporal risk assessment of natural disasters, taking grassland fire disasters in the Northern China as the case study. Firstly, we discuss connotation and forming mechanism of natural disaster risk, basic theory and framework of natural disaster risk assessment and management. Secondly, we introduce information diffusion theories and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) in the form of definitions, theorems and applications comprehensively and systemically. Finally, we give the case study on application of information diffusion theory and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) on grassland fire disasters in the grassland area of the Northern China. We employed information matrix to analyze and to quantify fuzzy relationship between the number of annual severe grassland fire disasters and annual burned area. We also evaluated the consequences of grassland fire disaster between 1991 and 2006 based on historical data from 12 Northern China provinces. The results show that the probabilities of annual grassland fire disasters and annual damage rates on different levels increase gradually from southwest to northeast across the Northern China. The annual burned area can be predicted effectively using the number of annual severe grassland fire disasters. The result shows reliability as tested by two-tailed Pearson correlation coefficient. This study contributes as a reference in decision making for prevention of grassland fire disaster and for stockbreeding sustainable development planning. The fuzzy relationship could provide information to make compensation plan for the disaster affected area.

The risk of natural disaster has been the focus of public policies. They are based on the Federal Law 12.608 / 2012, establishing the National Policy on Protection and Civil Defense. The overall goal is to understand the public policy related to the risks of natural disasters in the city of Blumenau, by identifying the structure of a public body and its powers. It constitutes an exploratory and descriptive qualitative approach. The method is characterized by systemic method and indirect technical documentation. The research was done in three steps: data collection, tabulation of information, analysis and discussion of results. The results indicate that the Supplementary Law 870/2013 which defines the administrative structure of the public power of Blumenau, does not detail the powers to the municipal responsible body for risk management of natural disasters, precisely indicated in Federal Law 12.608 / 2012.

Risk management for natural disasters is an important issue, especially in a rainy country like Taiwan where extreme rainfall can lead to significant economic losses. However, the availability of financial tools to diversify catastrophic risk is limited in the local insurance market. Therefore, this study aims to explore the effectiveness of financial tools used by some countries in the past to hedge against natural disaster risk. These financial tools were based on the concept of alternative risk transfer (ART). The goal of this study is to create a financial module within a natural disaster model to calculate the financial losses caused by Taiwan's monsoon, typhoon, and convectional rainfall, and produce expected losses table (ETL Table). The study then use the statistical framework of extreme value theory (EVT) to simulate the loss caused by these three types of rainfall in the form of extreme events. This will provide a more accurate assessment of the potential economic impact of these types of natural disasters on Taiwan. Furthermore, the study uses the CIR (Cox-Ingersoll-Ross) stochastic process to simulate Taiwan’s overnight interbank lending rate (Taiwan LIBOR). This is important because changes in the interbank lending rate affects the cost of borrowing for businesses and individuals, which in turn can impact the overall economy. By understanding how the interbank lending rate changes in the event of a natural disaster, financial institutions and policymakers can make more informed decisions about how to respond to such events. Finally, the study uses the Monte Carlo method to price catastrophe bonds, insurance, and futures. This provides a more accurate assessment of the potential financial value of these instruments, which can be used to hedge against natural disasters. By understanding the value of these financial tools, investors can therefore make more informed decisions about how to allocate their resources to protect against potential losses caused by natural disasters. Overall, this study strives to gain a deeper understanding of the financial tools that can be used to hedge against natural disaster risk, and how these tools can be applied to reduce the economic losses caused by extreme rainfall in Taiwan. By understanding the successes and challenges of these tools in other countries, Taiwan can better design and implement its own risk management strategies to protect against the financial impacts of natural disasters. The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support from the National Science and Technology Council of Taiwan ( Grant Number: 111-2124-M-002-006) 

The focuses are on the study of risk management of natural disasters from the perspective of complex systems, using the example of Mexico. It develops the theory of an arrival process taking into account an early warning system and we use it to create appropriate actuarial models. Then, it formulates a stochastic optimization problem to find an investment strategy for the management of a fund from the perspective of a risk-averse government. The solution is given with the use of the Follmer-Schweizer strategy. Umfang: XV, 153 S. Preis: €33.90 | £31.00 | $60.00

This report examines some of the implications of price risk and volatility, and weather risks in the LAC region that are important threats to already vulnerable populations. It considers the advantages and limitations of a set of financial instruments for managing these risks; and identifies potential mechanisms for addressing concerns about the socioeconomic consequences of price and weather volatility. In reviewing the innovations that are being tested in the LAC region and around the world, what is striking is that they appear to be disparate and largely piecemeal solutions to the problems of price and natural disaster risk management - they are not integrated. A more efficient and holistic solution should draw upon the recent efforts of coordination among countries within regions. The importance of risk aggregation and pooling combined with the comparative advantage of International Financial Institutions to access capital and work in a regional context, suggests a strategy to develop a fully multicountry approach to risk management. This strategy calls for establishing a Regional Asset Management Platform (RAMP) that integrates central stakeholders and develops pricing and measurement tools for extreme weather risk management and price volatility in a more efficient fashion. Global drivers of price volatility for major commodities can be managed using international futures exchange markets to some extent. However, regional climate anomalies will also mean that individual countries can suffer price volatility that represents a basis risks when using international futures markets. Thus, combining risk transfer products for regional climate anomalies with the use of careful hedging strategies for global volatility may offer better risk management strategies for either lower than expected prices that adversely affect producers or higher than expected prices that adversely affect consumers.

With the Sendai Framework (2015-2030) and the Paris Agreement (2015), the UN has been promoting at a global level, the priority objectives to protect the life and well-being of people, these documents of global consensus have scheduled in several countries, an extensive list of actions of responsibilities and commitments to the environment, to address natural disasters among those of greatest impact earthquakes and floods and among earthquakes (seismic activity). The materialization of the disaster is a natural or human-induced event, it manifests itself in permanent changes in society and by its origin it is classified as natural, anthropogenic (anthropogenic) and mixed, creating a worldwide problematic situation of immediate reaction. The attention and alert in the scientific community have been adding efforts, but in a disorganized way, with limited human and material resources and with globalized strategies still to be improved. The literature review of disaster risk management due to seismic activity, from 2008 to 2023, allows us to have updated information to identify the factors and deepen them, with the understanding, comprehension, and multidisciplinary knowledge. The selected researches that mention the factors (elements) that influence risk management of natural disasters due to seismic activity (RMNDDSA) allow us to know the advances and spaces to approach them, which constitutes the motivation to study the twenty-four (24) factors present in this type of disasters. The selected research articles indicate important advances that associate disaster risk management (DRM) and communication technology (ICTs). The technological means mentioned are well received and accepted by society, capable of detecting and communicating in real time seismic activity worldwide, with the help of social mobile networks, technological platforms, Twitter, Facebook, and others.

A sustainable procedure can be described as a political conversation about desirable futures informed by scientific knowledge from a broad range of disciplines that are effectively integrated, and by the knowledge and perspectives of the concerned actors. A theoretical framework that defines what an integrated and participatory procedure implies has been successfully applied in the fields of strategic natural resources and disaster risk management (NRM and DRM). With a focus already on disciplinary integration, value integration, participation and democracy, the framework is here developed further with respect to organizational issues, such as coordination and collaboration among organizations of different types at different scales and with different mandates and incentives. The study thus establishes a new integrated approach to systematized scientific knowledge in relation to the concept of sustainable development, via the sustainability principles of integration and participation – a theoretical baseli...

Stakeholder participation is considered a key principle for sustainable development in the context of natural resource and disaster risk management. Participatory modelling (PM) is an interactive and iterative process in which stakeholder involvement is supported by modelling and communication tools. Planning and decision-making for sustainable development (SD)integrate three substantive dimensions − social, ecological and economic. The procedural dimension of SD, however, is equally important, and here we see great potential for PM. In this study, we evaluate five PM research projects against criteria for the procedural dimension of SD. This provides a basis for identifying key issues and needs for further research into PM for SD. While the cases show great potential, especially for supporting knowledge integration, learning and transparent handling of values and perspectives, they indicate a particular need to develop PM in respect of organizational integration. This issue is closely connected to the possibility of effectively implementing PM in practice.

Mozambique is one of the countries which is most vulnerable to natural catastrophes in the world with the second highest annual per capita death rate from disasters, 328 deaths per million, ranking only below the P.D.R of Korea; flood disasters are responsible for half of the fatalities and a third of the economic losses from natural disasters worldwide. Its geographical location, along the Indian Ocean with an area of more than 1,700 km2, gives a degree of higher exposure to tropical depressions of different magnitudes, severe floods and droughts. Within the country, disasters are under the management of the National Institute for Disaster Management (INGC) a governmental entity composed of a multisector commission to deal with emergencies and natural catastrophes. Natural disaster risk management is also a wide field that attracts the attention of many stakeholders in the country, namely NGO, governmental institutions, academics and researchers, international agencies and others at international level. This particular research paper aims to investigate and propose different techniques of responses in emergency situations such as floods and tropical depressions. The study will explore different approaches which are applied in emergency situations, combining theories and practices in order to formulate an integrated model. Stakeholder participatory approaches, earlier warning and probabilistic and mathematical simulation are among the main components of the Integrated Risk Response Techniques. The main objective in developing such Integrated Risk Response Techniques is to provide the natural disaster risk managers with a holistic tool that can be applied, in case of emergencies, and reinforce the sustainability of the emergency planning processes. The use of such techniques might create added value for the national and regional response mechanisms in case of emergency.

The materialization of natural disasters stems from the interaction and exchange of temperatures in bodies, dynamic manifestations concentrated in the environment, where natural phenomena manage to manifest and combine, with the help of water, large amounts of oxygen, unstable temperatures, relative humidity, and closed and open spaces, generating abrupt and disruptive changes in the normal habitat process and finding temporary equilibrium, moving on to others, where the repercussions reach to impact, penetrate, and alter the normality of the natural status quo for living organisms. The leadership of the United Nations (UN) has been globally promoting priority objectives to protect the lives and well-being of people affected by natural disasters. The working group documents that have been obtained are supported by meetings and exercises of hundreds of participants, including academics and scientists from various countries, and have provided an opportunity to present an extensive list of priorities, objectives, goals, and actions on five continents. These initiatives seek to address environmental responsibilities and commitments to reduce vulnerability to the risk of natural disasters, with particular emphasis on those with significant impacts, such as earthquakes (seismic activity) and floods (torrential rains). The occurrence of a disaster, whether natural or manmade, generates drastic and permanent changes in society. Disasters are classified according to their origin as natural, man-made, or mixed, creating a global problem that demands an immediate response. Although the scientific community has increased its joint efforts, these efforts remain insufficient and require a better understanding and comprehension, with trained human resources and limited materials, associated with global strategies that still require refinement and improvement. The bibliographic review on seismic activity disaster risk management (FCGRDAS), covering the period 2010-2025, provides updated information to identify and explain the factors considered critical and that influence seismic activity natural disaster risk management. This review is based on multidisciplinary knowledge and understanding. The selected research articles highlight the factors that impact natural disaster risk management due to seismic activity, showing progress and identifying gaps. This underscores the motivation for the study with the detection of twenty-four factors considered critical and related to such disasters. The selected research articles also indicate significant academic and scientific advances linking disaster risk management (DRM) with information and communication technologies (ICTs). Technological media play a crucial role in the real-time exchange and transmission of information. Some of these technologies already enjoy widespread social acceptance and are capable of detecting and communicating global seismic activity in real time, leveraging mobile social networks and technological platforms, among others.

Effective DRM aims to identify and minimize both hazards and vulnerabilities of a territory. This case study carried out in Chile analyzes national programs and disaster risk management structures at different administrative levels (national, regional, and municipal) and identifies gaps that contribute to the vulnerability of the current system. The proposed measures and options for improvement presented in this study are based on a literature review of scientific discussions about international governance, disaster risk management, and case studies conducted in Chile. The results indicate that the national disaster risk management plan has been adjusted in recent years, especially after the 2010 Chilean earthquake. The national administration, which is primarily responsible for managing potential risks, as well as the regional and local governments, has been replaced by the National Disaster Prevention and Response System (SINAPRED) in 2021, according to the 21364 law. This law was created to make cities more resilient, contributing to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This change is intended to decentralize disaster risk management, considering local conditions and preventing oversight of disaster risk management, which is not mandatory at the local level. It has also noted some gaps, such as the lack of standardization of emergency and early warning systems and funding at local levels. It is hoped that the system will move forward in this transition period and that the gaps will not affect effective risk management, as they have caused loss of life in past disasters.

Among the many challenges facing Kenya today is the menace of natural disasters, which have become a perennial problem affecting the country. Disasters cause suffering to communities and economic losses to the country. Projections indicate that Natural Disasters will not only increase in frequency but will also be more severe. Disasters are caused by a myriad of both natural and human factors. Ninety percent (90%) of all natural disasters worldwide are caused by weather related natural hazards, with different regions of the world being more vulnerable to certain types of natural disasters than others. Africa, and more specifically Kenya, is more vulnerable to hydro-meteorological disasters, among the most prevalent of which are drought, floods and landslides. The study sought to investigate the strategies being taken in disaster risk management at policy level, with mounting evidence that the problem of natural disasters is set to worsen. It also investigated how the management of a cross-cutting service like disaster risk management can be carried out in an effective and efficient manner. Thirdly, the study examined the measures that are necessary to mitigate natural disasters, in order to ensure public safety. The research was carried out in the form of a survey of the public sector institutions responsible for Natural Disaster Risk Management at policy formulation and implementation levels. It established that different institutions implemented their disaster risk management strategies independently with minimal coordination among them. The net effect is a reduction in the overall efficiency and effectiveness of disaster risk management as a function. The study concludes that there is need to reorganize the natural disaster risk management structure in the country, in order to enable the responsible institutions deliver their mandate in a more efficient manner that satisfies all their stakeholders. In this respect, the research gives recommendations on ways to improve the disaster Risk Management function.

The concept of effective and proactive natural disaster risk management represents a highly complex phenomenon researched in different scientific disciplines. While the nature of the events that trigger risk scenario and resources that need to be protected are quite clearly defined, there is no such similar compliance level regarding the response. In most countries, civil (emergency response units) and military (modelled forces) structures represent the basis for effective natural disasters risk management. Full-scale collaboration and prompt corrective action during mitigation phase are prerequisites for successful task completion, which poses the necessity of effective civil—military collaboration model development. In this paper, the different approaches aimed to effective disaster collaboration are analysed. Also, the side aim of this chapter is stewarded to in-depth, objective analysis of current state in Republic of Serbia within the field.