Abstract
The boreal felt lichen (Erioderma pedicellatum (Hue) P.M. Jørg.) is globally critically endangered, being threatened by forestry operations, habitat disturbance, and air pollution. To determine if loss of habitat due to forestry activities has occurred in Nova Scotia, a predictive habitat model was built using historical data from 1988. Satellite data were used for the period between 1987 and 2005 to determine the amount of suitable habitat harvested during this period. Available habitat was modeled through time from 1988 to 2005 in which area harvested was subtracted and regeneration was added in 3- to 5-year time steps. The predicted suitable boreal felt lichen habitat area was then modeled from 2005 to 2055 using the same harvesting assumptions and modeling process, but using 10-year time steps. The results of the model indicated that there has been a loss of 2311 ha (11.5%) in the amount of predicted suitable boreal felt lichen habitat between 1988 and 2005. A forward-projected drop is predicted between 2005 and 2055 that will amount to 4499 ha (25.4%), assuming no change in forest harvesting. Protection of unoccupied habitat surrounding existing boreal felt is recommended.
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