Gun Laws, Stay-at-Home Orders, and Poverty: Surges in Pandemic Firearm Violence in Large US Cities

Abstract

IntroductionThe COVID-19 pandemic heralded a surge in firearm homicides (FH) in many, but not all, urban centers. We aimed to determine the relationship of firearm restrictive legislation, stay-at-home orders (SaHOs), and FH during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in US cities. MethodsDemographics and socioeconomic data were captured from the 2020 US Census for large (population ≥250,000) cities. FH data were captured from the Gun Violence Archive. We retrieved firearm recovery estimates from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms Firearms Trace Database. Firearm restrictive legislation was gathered from the State Firearm Laws Database. SaHO durations were found from press releases and government sources. Variables with P ≤ 0.200 in univariate linear regression were entered into a final multivariable model. ResultsA median of 7.5 FH per 100,000 people occurred in the 85 included US cities across 32 states in 2020 (range, 0.35-69.80 per 100,000). In multivariable regression, longer SaHOs (β: 0.033, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.014-0.053, P = 0.001) and higher poverty (β: 0.471, 95% CI: 0.280-0.670, P < 0.001) were associated with increases in FH. Handgun-specific laws (β: −0.793, 95% CI: −1.430 to −0.160, P = 0.015) were associated with lower FH. ConclusionsWe found that poverty and longer SaHOs were associated with increased FH in large US cities during the height of the pandemic, while handgun-specific laws were associated with a decrease. Reducing poverty, mitigating the negative effects of SaHOs, and expanding handgun-specific legislation may protect from surges in FH during future crises.