Group-based product scheme-screening decision method based on fuzzy AHP and evidential reasoning theory

Abstract

Selecting the favourable product scheme is the first step to successful new product development (NPD). There are usually large numbers of uncertainties in product scheme evaluation and screening process of NPD due to lack of or incomplete reliable information. Considering fully the uncertainties and then conducting correct reasoning could guarantee reliability and rationality of scheme-screening results. As an extension of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), fuzzy AHP inherits multi-merits of the AHP approach and is capable of dealing with fuzzy information effectively, but it still has two weaknesses. One is the well-known ranking reversal problem. Although several researchers have analysed the reasons, we think the root cause for ranking reversal problem is due to the fact that AHP treats weights of attribute criteria and performance scores of alternatives in the same way. Therefore, we intend to deal with attribute weights and performance scores of alternatives separately and introduce evidential reasoning (ER) theory, which is good at uncertain reasoning, into fuzzy AHP to calculate the performance scores of alternatives. On the other hand, in view of the difficulty in resolution for fuzzy weights from fuzzy comparison matrix, a linear goal-programming model is proposed to calculate fuzzy weights, whose objective is to minimise the inconsistency degree of comparison matrix. By combining fuzzy AHP with ER, a group-based hybrid decision model FAHP-ER is developed. The hybrid model not only gets a great improvement in the capability of dealing with uncertainty, but also reflects the most real decision scenario and thinking process of the decision maker. Finally, a case study for schemes screening of the rotor and bearing system in the turbine generator is presented to demonstrate the application of the hybrid decision method.