Greenhouse gas emissions drive global dryland expansion but not spatial patterns of change in aridification

Abstract

Drylands play an essential role in Earth’s environment and human systems. Although dryland expansion has been widely investigated in previous studies, there is a lack of quantitative evidence supporting human-induced changes in dryland extent. Here, using multiple observational datasets and model simulations from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, we employ both correlation-based and optimal fingerprinting approaches to conduct quantitative detection and attribution of dryland expansion. Our results show that spatial changes in atmospheric aridity (i.e., the aridity index defined by the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration) between the recent period 1990–2014 and the past period 1950–74 are unlikely to have been caused by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, it is very likely (at least 95% confidence level) that dryland expansion at the global scale was driven principally by GHG emissions. Over the period 1950–2014, global drylands expanded by 3.67% according to observations, and the dryland expansion attributed to GHG emissions is estimated as ∼4.5%. Drylands are projected to continue expanding, and their populations to increase until global warming reaches ∼3.5℃ above preindustrial temperature under the middle- and high emission scenarios. If warming exceeds ∼3.5℃, a reduction in population density would drive a decrease in dryland population. Our results for the first time provide quantitative evidence for the dominant effects of GHG emissions on global dryland expansion, which is helpful for anthropogenic climate change adaptation in drylands.