Greater Flash Flood Risks From Hourly Precipitation Extremes Preconditioned by Heatwaves in the Yangtze River Valley

Abstract

AbstractCompared to singular hot or wet extremes, their occurrence in close sequence might cause larger impacts, because the initial hazard either increases exposure/vulnerability of affected communities to the next or physically worsens the second hazard. Heatwave‐preconditioned hourly precipitation extremes in the Yangtze River Valley are typical of the latter situation. Fueled by soaring convective energy after heatwaves' passage, hourly precipitation extremes are heavier, intensifying faster, and more concentrated during afternoon to evening, compared to those not proceeded by heatwaves. Consequently, flash flood‐producing events (e.g., 50 mm/hr or stronger) account for larger fractions in preconditioned events than in the non‐preconditioned group, with the spectrum difference further exaggerated by warming. This drives the frequency increase in potentially high‐impact events several‐fold larger than expected from the widely‐adopted univariate perspective. These results point to heatwave‐preconditioned hourly precipitation extremes as an emerging hazard of climate change carrying greater flash flood risks.