Google Trends and cycles of public interest in biodiversity: the animal spirits effect

Abstract

The paper introduces the idea of using Google Trends search query volumes for both economic and biodiversity-related terms and keywords as data source in order to produce a composite but simple indicator-early warning sign of public interest in conservation co-evolving with citizens’ concerns about economy and unemployment. The behavior of this indicator is examined mainly in the context of the European Union Member States facing the effects of economic recession after the 2008 economic crisis. Four EuroArea Member States (Germany, Greece, Italy and The Netherlands) representing various facets of the combination of biodiversity and economy conditions are used as examples of the characteristics of this indicator, during a ten year period, extending equally before and after the eruption of economic crisis. Results indicate that such an indicator uncovers that public interest in biodiversity does decelerate worldwide, in the European Union and in the four studied cases; however, an explanation of this decreasing trend as being part of larger cycles in public interest that resonate with some hysteresis with cycles of economy offers a more promising view of the phenomenon. The hypothesis that public interest in biodiversity is driven by “animal spirits”, according to Keynes’ prediction is formulated and its significance regarding communication and strategy of conservation is debated.