Go west, young bunting: recent climate change drives rapid movement of a Great Plains hybrid zone.

Abstract

Describing how hybrid zones respond to anthropogenic influence can illuminate how the environment regulates both species distributions and reproductive isolation between species. In this study, we analyzed specimens collected from the Passerina cyanea x P. amoena hybrid zone between 2004 and 2007 and between 2019 and 2021 to explore changes in genetic structure over time. This comparison follows a previous study that identified a significant westward shift of the Passerina hybrid zone during the latter half of the twentieth century. A second temporal comparison of hybrid zone genetic structure presents unique potential to describe finer-scale dynamics and to identify potential mechanisms of observed changes more accurately. After concluding that the westward movement of the Passerina hybrid zone has accelerated in recent decades, we investigated potential drivers of this trend by modeling the influence of bioclimatic and landcover variables on genetic structure. We also incorporated eBird data to determine how the distributions of P. cyanea and P. amoena have responded to recent climate and landcover changes. We found that the distribution of P. cyanea in the northern Great Plains has shifted west to track a moving climatic niche, supporting anthropogenic climate change as a key mediator of introgression in this system.