GlobeTERM, combining multi-country and sub-national detail

Introduction The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model is a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model which has its origins in the SALTER model (Jomini et al. 1991). Since its inception in 1993, GTAP has become widely used and respected by researchers and policy-makers around the world. In this Appendix we introduce some of the key features of the GTAP database and model, applications of which are used in a number of chapters in this book. We then explain how results from the GTAP model can be analysed and we conclude with a summary of some of the main advantages and limitations of global CGE analysis. The GTAP database The GTAP model and database are publicly available and fully documented; these features enhance the credibility of modelling work and facilitate comparability of analysis. The global database is updated approximately every eighteen months, with contributions coming from throughout the GTAP network of international organisations and country experts. Version 3 of the database comprises 37 commodities and 30 countries (McDougall 1997), while Version 4 of the database comprises 50 commodities and 45 regions (McDougall et al. 1998). In both versions, Indonesia is one of the countries specified and there is a relatively heavy disaggregation for agricultural sectors. Table A1 details the countries and regions in recent versions of the GTAP database, while Table A2 shows the commodity breakdown. To aid computation and to highlight the implications for the regions and sectors of particular interest, the GTAP database is generally aggregated to a smaller number of regions and sectors when running simulations and interpreting results.

In the interest of including additional countries from the Caribbean into the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database to support economic analysis on these countries, the Inter-American Development Bank commissioned the inclusion of Jamaica, Trinidad & Tobago, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic into version 8.2 (and 9) of the GTAP database. The document describes the process of transforming the original input-out and supply use tables of these four Caribbean countries into the GTAP format. Further details on the GTAP database may be found at www.gtap.org.

PurposeThe present study is an attempt to evaluate the impact of the proposed India-China free trade agreement (FTA) in goods trade on both countries under a static general equilibrium framework.Design/Methodology/ApproachThe study has utilized the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model of world trade with the presence of skilled and unskilled unemployment in the world. For analysis purposes, 57 GTAP sectors, representing the whole regional economy, have been aggregated into 43 sectors and 140 GTAP regions, representing the whole world, have been aggregated into 19 regions. The study has also used the updated tariff rates provided by the World Trade Organization for better results.FindingsThe preliminary analysis using trade indicators depicted that by utilizing their own comparative advantage, both of the countries can maximize their gains by exporting more to the world. The simulation results from the GTAP analysis revealed that a tariff reduction in all goods trade would be more beneficial for both the countries than the tariff reduction in each other's specialized products. All other regions lose in terms of shifting the Indian imports towards China in a post-simulation environment. Regions with a significant loss are: the European Union (28 members), Southeast Asia, the Unites States, Japan, Korea, West Asia, and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA).Originality/ValueThe disaggregated sector-wise analysis has been performed using the latest available GTAP database, version 9.

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are ubiquitous in energy and environmental economic research. Recent technological advancements in electricity fuels, generation technologies, and environmental policies which target specific generation technologies (e.g. emission regulations) have motivated detailed CGE modeling of the electricity sector. Modeling these issues requires distinct electricity generating technologies in a CGE database. Researchers using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Data Base have disaggregated the electricity sector into generating technologies independently using largely disparate, incomparable methodologies. This paper presents the methodology used to create the GTAP-Power Data Base, an electricity-detailed extension of the GTAP 9 Data Base with the following disaggregated electricity sectors: transmission and distribution, nuclear, coal, gas, hydroelectric, wind, oil, solar, and other. Gas, oil, and hydroelectric are further differentiated as base and peak load. The "bottom-up" data are electricity generation and levelized input costs for each technology and region. The levelized input costs for each technology are estimated to be as close as possible to the original data, but consistent with the original GTAP 9 Data Base. Major limitations in the initial version of the GTAP-Power Data Base are the lack of regional coverage in input cost data and disparity between available data and the total values for the electricity aggregate. All of the GTAP 9 Data Base is included in the GTAP-Power Data Base.

The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) is a global network of researchers and policy makers conducting quantitative analysis of international policy issues. The motivation and ultimate success of the Project stems from the fact that collaboration is essential for detailed analysis of the global economy. The importance of collaboration to improve the quality of policy analysis world-wide is most clearly seen in the development of the GTAP Data Base. The GTAP Data Base is the centerpiece of the Global Trade Analysis Project. It records the annual flows of goods and services for the entire world economy in the benchmark year(s). It consists of bilateral trade, transport, and protection matrices that link individual country/regional economic data bases. The production of the GTAP Data Base relies on the valuable contributions of many individuals and organizations throughout the world. Individuals contribute the best available input-output table for their country, while other experts contribute the macro, trade, protection and other data required. The Center for Global Trade Analysis, the home of GTAP, then brings these contributions together into one useable, globally consistent, database. The result is a fully documented , publicly available and regularly updated global database. This year (2012), the eighth version of the GTAP Data Base was released, covering 129 countries, 57 sectors, 5 factors and two base years (2004 and 2007). The GTAP Data Base is utilized in a suite of comparative static and dynamic computable general equilibrium models and underlies most contemporary economic analysis of global policy issues related to trade, energy and the environment.

The making of projections often requires an economy-wide perspective, and the estimation of consumer demands at the international level. In this paper, an implicit, directly additive demand system (AIDADS) is estimated using cross-country data on consumer expenditures from the International Comparison Program (ICP), and then from Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) data. The two data sets are found to produce results that are quite consistent despite their differing origins, and the fact that the former is based on consumer goods that embody wholesale/retail margins, while margin demands are treated separately in GTAP. Given the similarity of the results, the estimation based on GTAP data is favored because it is readily matched to input-output based production and trade data, and provides valuable new information concerning how aggregate margin expenditures are related to per capita income.

The making of projections often requires an economy-wide perspective, and the estimation of consumer demands at the international level. In this paper, an implicit, directly additive demand system (AIDADS) is estimated using cross-country data on consumer expenditures from the International Comparison Program (ICP), and then from Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) data. The two data sets are found to produce results that are quite consistent despite their differing origins, and the fact that the former is based on consumer goods that embody wholesale/retail margins, while margin demands are treated separately in GTAP. Given the similarity of the results, the estimation based on GTAP data is favored because it is readily matched to input-output based production and trade data, and provides valuable new information concerning how aggregate margin expenditures are related to per capita income.

In the interest of updating the input-output data of Paraguay in the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database to support economic analysis in this country, the Inter-American Development Bank commissioned the update of these data using the data from a 2009 social accounting matrix (SAM) developed by Cicowiez and Santander (2015). The document describes the process of transforming the 2009 SAM of Paraguay into the GTAP format. Further details on the GTAP database may be found at www.gtap.org.

Historically fossil-fuel consumption subsidies have been one of the most widely used energy and public policy interventions. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), in 2014 they amounted to $493 billion worldwide, which is equivalent to 0.6% of global GDP. Their contribution is even more significant for most energy exporting countries, in many cases exceeding 5-15% of national GDP. However, despite their large magnitude, fossil-fuel consumption subsidies are not explicitly represented in most global economic databases and models, including the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Data Base, as they are generally not captured by the input-output framework. In this paper, we present methods to integrate pre-tax fossil-fuel consumption subsidies to the GTAP Data Base and produce a version of the GTAP 9.2 Data Base that includes these subsidies. The proposed approach includes updates of energy commodity market prices and corresponding tax rates, within the GTAP Data Base build process. Including fossil-fuel consumption subsidies in the GTAP Data Base provides several benefits for energy and environmental policy simulations, including availability of an additional policy instrument and more consistent representation of energy prices.

This book, drawn from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), aims to help readers conduct quantitative analysis of international trade issues in an economy-wide framework. In addition to providing a succinct introduction to the GTAP modelling framework and data base, this book contains seven of the most refined GTAP applications undertaken to date, covering topics ranging from trade policy to the global implications of environmental policies, factor accumulation and technological change. The authors of the applications are representative of the broader group of GTAP users. Some are academics, while others are professional economists in national and international agencies. All of their studies can be independently replicated by the reader through accessing software and files via the Internet. Readers can also explore the sensitivity of results to varying assumptions and use the applications to launch independent research projects.

We estimate international transportation margin shares by mode of transport for the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Data Base. For each available origin-destination-GTAP sector triplet, we estimate the fractional share of the transport margin attributable to air, water, and other shipping modes. We use published relationships between ad valorem proportional changes in prices due to transportation costs and distances, weight-value ratios and fuel prices. Our final database contains 344,554 observations (origin-destination-sector-mode combinations) with transportation margin modal shares organized by 228 exporter countries, 209 importer countries, 45 traded GTAP sectors and 3 transportation modes. The main contribution of this article is to bring a more comprehensive set of information on trade by transport mode covering around 65% of global trade in 2004 and 55% in 2011. Our estimated shares contrast with those traditionally used in the GTAP Data Base which are extrapolations based solely on the modes of transport used by US exporters. A comparison of our shares with those used in version 9.0 of the GTAP Data Base reveals that the role of water transportation services in international trade is underestimated, while that of air transportation is overestimated. Overall, we find that estimations using the modal shares in version 9.0 of the GTAP Data Base overestimate the greenhouse gas emissions associated with international transport. Our new data were used to estimate transport margins by mode in Version 9.1 of the GTAP Data Base, and it is expected that our methods will be used to update future versions of the database.

In this paper, we develop an approach towards incorporation of nutritional accounts for the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Data Base. We rely on the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) food balance sheets data and nutritive indicators to estimate nutritional content of primary commodities and derived commodities represented in primary equivalent within the food balance sheets. Calories, fats, proteins and carbohydrates are estimated and reported. We further identify use categories that account for food, feed, seed, losses and other uses. In terms of food supply, we identify GTAP Data Base primary commodity sectors, food processing sectors and service sectors that supply food. To redistribute nutritional data according to GTAP Data Base sectors, we calculate Leontief inverses, operating only over those sectors (and uses) that supply food. Trade in both primary and processed commodities is taken into account. The approach is applied to all four GTAP 10 Data Base reference years and can be replicated in a dynamic modelling framework for each simulated year (time step).

The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) benchmark data and parameters are specified for 37 commodities and 24 regions. Due to the size of this data set, an aggregated version of the data base and parameters will be desired for most GTAP simulations. The precise dimensions of each aggregation will depend on the problem at hand. Experienced users tend to favor strategic aggregations that allow them to focus on key sectors and regions of interest. This makes the job of sorting through the simulation results less daunting. For teaching purposes, we usually begin with the three-region, three-commodity (3×3) aggregation referred to in Chapters 2 and 4. Section II introduces you to the GTAP aggregation facility that created this 3×3 data set. We will also examine some of the key value flows, as well as the full parameter file. In section III, local behavior of the 3×3 model will be examined through the use of general equilibrium demand elasticities. This offers a valuable summary of the interaction between theory, data, and parameters in the model.

This paper provides an overview of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Data Base and its latest release, version 9. The GTAP Data Base has been used in thousands of economy-wide analyses over the past twenty-five years. While initially focused on supporting trade policy analysis, the addition of satellite accounts pertaining to greenhouse gas emissions and land use has resulted in a surge of applications relating to climate change as well as other environmental issues. The Data Base comprises an exhaustive set of accounts measuring the value of annual flows of goods and services with regional and sectoral detail for the entire world economy. These flows include bilateral trade, transport, and protection matrices that link individual country/regional economic datasets. Version 9 disaggregates 140 regions, 57 sectors, 8 factors of production, for 3 base years (2004, 2007 and 2011). The great success enjoyed by this Data Base stems from the collaboration efforts by many parties interested in improving the quality of economic analysis of global policy issues related to trade, economic development, energy and the environment.

The purpose of this paper is to describe a version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium (CGE) model implemented in the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) that is a literal implementation of the standard General Economic Modeling Package (GEMPACK) version. There are a number of GAMS-based models that rely on the basic GTAP Data Base structure, but none is an exact replica of the GTAP model itself. This paper relies on version 7.0 of the GTAP model released in 2017 and that represents the latest version of the 'standard' GTAP model, acknowledging that there are multiple variants. The code has been tested with release 9 of the GTAP Data Base that has 57 commodities and 140 countries/regions.