Abstract
On 3 April 2020, the Director-General of the WHO stated: “[COVID-19] is much more than a health crisis. We are all aware of the profound social and economic consequences of the pandemic (WHO, 2020)”. Such consequences are the result of counter-measures such as lockdowns, and world-wide reductions in production and consumption, amplified by cascading impacts through international supply chains. Using a global multi-regional macro-economic model, we capture direct and indirect spill-over effects in terms of social and economic losses, as well as environmental effects of the pandemic. Based on information as of May 2020, we show that global consumption losses amount to 3.8$tr, triggering significant job (147 million full-time equivalent) and income (2.1$tr) losses. Global atmospheric emissions are reduced by 2.5Gt of greenhouse gases, 0.6Mt of PM2.5, and 5.1Mt of SO2 and NOx. While Asia, Europe and the USA have been the most directly impacted regions, and transport and tourism the immediately hit sectors, the indirect effects transmitted along international supply chains are being felt across the entire world economy. These ripple effects highlight the intrinsic link between socio-economic and environmental dimensions, and emphasise the challenge of addressing unsustainable global patterns. How humanity reacts to this crisis will define the post-pandemic world.
Highlights
On 9 January 2020, the World Health Organisation (WHO) first reported the outbreak of a coronavirus disease (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) [1], from the Chinese city of Wuhan
Reductions in greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions are larger than any drop in anthropogenic emissions in human history (SI 6.5, SI11 Fig in S1 File), including when fossil-fuel CO2 emissions dropped by 0.46 Gt CO2 in 2009 due to the global financial crisis (GFC) [53], and when CO2 emissions from land use change dropped by 2.02 Gt CO2 in 1998 [53]
The loss of connectivity imposed to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 has triggered an economic “contagion”, with the crisis precipitated by the COVID-19 pandemic cascading across socio-economic sectors, and causing major disruptions to trade, tourism, energy and finance sectors
Summary
On 9 January 2020, the World Health Organisation (WHO) first reported the outbreak of a coronavirus disease (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) [1], from the Chinese city of Wuhan. By the end of January, there were more than 10,000 existing cases and more than 2,000 new confirmed cases daily, mostly in China’s Hubei province, and more than 250 people had died. By 3 April, with over 1 million confirmed cases worldwide [4], many countries implemented lockdown measures, with close to 3 billion people asked to stay at home [5], more than 1 billion people alone in India. These restrictions meant that people were unable to commute to their workplaces, and as a result, offices and factories closed. Broad entry bans were applied, and flight routes suspended
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