Abstract
Abstract. Coastal flood hazard and exposure are expected to increase over the course of the 21st century, leading to increased coastal flood risk. In order to limit the increase in future risk, or even reduce coastal flood risk, adaptation is necessary. Here, we present a framework to evaluate the future benefits and costs of structural protection measures at the global scale, which accounts for the influence of different flood risk drivers (namely sea-level rise, subsidence, and socioeconomic change). Globally, we find that the estimated expected annual damage (EAD) increases by a factor of 150 between 2010 and 2080 if we assume that no adaptation takes place. We find that 15 countries account for approximately 90 % of this increase. We then explore four different adaptation objectives and find that they all show high potential in cost-effectively reducing (future) coastal flood risk at the global scale. Attributing the total costs for optimal protection standards, we find that sea-level rise contributes the most to the total costs of adaptation. However, the other drivers also play an important role. The results of this study can be used to highlight potential savings through adaptation at the global scale.
Highlights
In recent years, the effects of climate change on coastal flood hazards and its impacts on society have been studied extensively
Four adaptation objectives for reducing coastal flood risk through structural measures have been explored and a benefit–cost analysis has been performed on the sub-national scale for the entire globe
The costs of adaptation have been attributed to different drivers of flood risk: sea-level rise, socioeconomic change, subsidence, and optimizing to current conditions
Summary
The effects of climate change on coastal flood hazards and its impacts on society have been studied extensively. According to a recent study by Raftery et al (2017), it is unlikely that the Paris Agreement’s aim of keeping global warming below a 2 ◦C increase by the end of the 21st century will be met. This may lead to changes in storm surges (Tebaldi et al, 2012), extreme sea levels (Vousdoukas et al, 2017), and tides (Pickering et al, 2012).
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