Global, regional, and national burden of visceral leishmaniasis, 1990–2021: findings from the global burden of disease study 2021
BackgroundLeishmaniasis is a vector-borne parasitic disease caused by protozoa of the Leishmania genus; it is transmitted through the bites of infected phlebotomine sandflies. Clinically, it manifests in three primary forms: cutaneous, mucocutaneous, and visceral leishmaniasis (VL). Among these, VL represents the most severe form, characterized by high morbidity and mortality, and poses a considerable public health burden, particularly in endemic regions. This study utilizes data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2021 to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the global epidemiological trends and burden of VL from 1990 to 2021, aiming to generate evidence-based insights to inform prevention and control strategies.MethodsUsing GBD 2021 data, this study examined trends in the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of VL across 204 countries and territories, stratified by age, sex, and sociodemographic index (SDI) levels. Average annual percent change (AAPC) was calculated to describe trends in age-standardized rates and indicator counts from 1990 to 2021.ResultsFrom 1990 to 2021, the global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR; AAPC = −0.25, 95% confidence interval (CI) −0.25, −0.24), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR; AAPC = −0.06, 95% CI −0.06, −0.05), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR; AAPC = −0.03, 95% CI −0.04, −0.02), and DALY rate (AAPC = −2.38, 95% CI −2.44, −2.33) for VL all showed a declining trend. The ASMR was highest among children under 5 years old and decreased progressively with age. VL remains a critical and under-recognized tropical disease in Latin America, the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia.ConclusionsVL disproportionately affects males and presents the highest risk in children under 5 years. Enhanced global collaboration in infectious disease control, with a focus on regions such as Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia, is essential to further reduce the burden of VL.Graphical abstract
Highlights
Leishmaniasis is a vector-borne parasitic disease caused by protozoa of the Leishmania genus; it is transmitted through the bites of infected phlebotomine sandflies
From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) (AAPC = −0.25, 95% confidence interval (CI) −0.25, −0.24), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) (AAPC = −0.06, 95% CI −0.06, −0.05), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) (AAPC = −0.03, 95% CI −0.04, −0.02), and age-standardized disabilityadjusted life years (DALYs) rate showed a marked decline (AAPC = −2.38, 95% CI −2.44, −2.33) in visceral leishmaniasis (VL)
Five sociodemographic index (SDI) regions In 2021, the ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and age-standardized DALY rate of VL were highest in low SDI regions and lowest in high SDI regions
Summary
Leishmaniasis is a vector-borne parasitic disease caused by protozoa of the Leishmania genus; it is transmitted through the bites of infected phlebotomine sandflies. It manifests in three primary forms: cutaneous, mucocutaneous, and visceral leishmaniasis (VL). Leishmaniasis, known as kala-azar, is a parasitic disease caused by protozoan parasites of the Leishmania genus, which are transmitted to humans through the bite of infected female phlebotomine sandflies, including visceral leishmaniasis (VL), cutaneous leishmaniasis, and mucocutaneous leishmaniasis [1–4]. The global incidence of VL has shown a declining trend in recent years, VL remains one of the key neglected tropical diseases prioritized by the World Health Organization (WHO), with a high mortality and morbidity burden. Urbanization, global warming, and changing precipitation patterns have expanded the ecological niche of sandflies, potentially contributing to the emergence of VL in nonendemic areas and an increase in cases in traditionally endemic regions [13–15]
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- 10.1016/j.eclinm.2024.102873
- Oct 4, 2024
- eClinicalMedicine
2
- 10.1016/j.soh.2024.100098
- Jan 1, 2025
- Science in One Health
18
- 10.1186/s40249-024-01230-3
- Aug 16, 2024
- Infectious Diseases of Poverty
10
- 10.1016/j.soh.2024.100067
- Jan 1, 2024
- Science in One Health
5
- Mar 1, 1986
- Soins. Cardiologie
6
- 10.1016/j.tmaid.2023.102637
- Aug 25, 2023
- Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease
3
- 10.1016/j.soh.2024.100086
- Jan 1, 2024
- Science in One Health
4
- 10.1093/oxfordjournals.annonc.a059295
- Sep 1, 1995
- Annals of Oncology
430
- 10.1016/s0140-6736(24)00476-8
- Mar 11, 2024
- The Lancet
19
- 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005231
- Mar 9, 2017
- PLoS neglected tropical diseases
- Research Article
- 10.1016/j.soh.2025.100123
- Sep 6, 2025
- Science in One Health
Global, regional, and national temporal trend and patterns of change in the burden of leishmaniasis from 1990 to 2021: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
- Supplementary Content
- 10.3390/pathogens14060553
- Jun 2, 2025
- Pathogens
Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) significantly impact global child health, with mosquito-transmitted infections like malaria and arboviruses accounting for a substantial portion of this burden. However, other arthropod-borne diseases—transmitted by vectors such as ticks, fleas, sand flies, lice, and triatomine bugs—also pose serious health risks to children worldwide. This review specifically excludes mosquito-borne diseases to concentrate on these less-discussed yet clinically important pediatric VBDs. We examine their clinical manifestations, diagnostic challenges, and treatment options, highlighting the unique vulnerabilities of children, including immature immune systems, behavioral factors, and communication barriers that can delay diagnosis. Additionally, we explore how environmental and anthropogenic factors, such as climate change and urbanization, are expanding the geographic range of these vectors, leading to the emergence of diseases like Lyme disease and leishmaniasis in new regions. By focusing on non-mosquito VBDs, this review aims to raise awareness and inform healthcare providers and public health practitioners about the comprehensive landscape of pediatric vector-borne diseases.
- Research Article
- 10.3390/tropicalmed10090250
- Sep 1, 2025
- Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease
Kala-azar is associated with case-fatality rates as high as 10% in certain regions. Early identification of mortality biomarkers can significantly reduce this risk. This study, strengthened by a relatively high number of kala-azar-related deaths, aimed to identify serum cytokines as predictive biomarkers of fatal kala-azar. We compared 48 deceased patients with kala-azar to 42 survivors. The concentrations of IL-1β, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, IL-12, and tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) were measured by flow cytometry. Cytokine levels were compared between groups using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, coupled with Youden’s index, defined the optimal diagnostic threshold. Upon admission, IL-8 concentrations were substantially higher in deceased kala-azar patients (median 76.5 pg/mL [IQR 35.2–242.4 pg/mL]) than in survivors (median 26.4 pg/mL [IQR 15.1–47.7 pg/mL]; p < 0.0001). ROC analysis identified 49.3 pg/mL as the optimal cutoff. When rounded to the clinically convenient value of 50 pg/mL, IL-8 predicted a fatal outcome with an area under the curve of 0.75, sensitivity of 70.8%, and specificity of 76.2%. In contrast, IL-1β, IL-6, IL-10, IL-12, and TNF-α showed no significant prognostic utility. Our findings suggest that IL-8 levels equal to or greater than 50 pg/mL are a reliable predictor of fatal kala-azar.
- Research Article
- 10.1038/s41598-025-10545-6
- Jul 10, 2025
- Scientific Reports
Leishmaniasis is one of the infectious diseases caused by protozoa and is considered the second most significant parasitic disease after malaria. In this research, thiosemicarbazone Schiff base derivatives were synthesized via a one-pot, two-step, three-component reaction. Then, the effectiveness of the compounds against the two forms of Leishmania major and Leishmania tropica called amastigote and promastigote, was tested. All synthesized compounds displayed weak to good anti-amastigote and anti-promastigote activities. Notably, compounds 5g and 5p were the most potent compounds against amastigote and promastigote forms, respectively, of Leishmania major, with IC50 = 26.7 µM and 12.77 µM. Analogues 5e and 5g were the most potent compounds against amastigote and promastigote forms of Leishmania tropica, with IC50 = 92.3 µM and 12.77 µM, respectively. The cytotoxicity activity of the compounds was also evaluated using the J774.A1 cell lines. Some of the screened derivatives displayed low cytotoxicity to macrophage infection. Among compounds, 5p and 5e showed the highest SI (95.4 and 34.6) against L. major and L. tropica, respectively. In the next phase, the most effective thiosemicarbazone derivatives were examined for their ability to induce apoptosis in promastigotes. According to the results, these compounds displayed different early and late apoptosis as well as necrotic effects on promastigotes of Leishmania major and Leishmania tropica. Furthermore, the compounds’ drug-likeness and pharmacokinetic parameters were predicted in silico. All compounds showed acceptable drug-likeness and pharmacokinetic profiles. Furthermore, the most likely sites of the compounds metabolized by the major cytochromes were identified. Additionally, the in silico compounds’ cardiotoxicity potential was assessed. This investigation showed compounds 5m-p were cardiotoxic. Lastly, molecular docking and molecular dynamics simulations were performed to explore the potential mechanisms of anti-leishmanial activity in the LmPRT1 active site.
- Research Article
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- 10.1016/j.ekir.2021.04.038
- May 5, 2021
- Kidney International Reports
Global Disease Burden From Acute Glomerulonephritis 1990–2019
- Research Article
- 10.16250/j.32.1915.2024251
- Feb 5, 2025
- Zhongguo xue xi chong bing fang zhi za zhi = Chinese journal of schistosomiasis control
To investigate the global burden of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) from 1990 to 2021 and predict the trends in the burden of VL from 2022 to 2035, so as to provide insights into global VL prevention and control. The global age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates of VL and their 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) were captured from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) data resources. The trends in the global burden of VL were evaluated with average annual percent change (AAPC) and 95% confidence interval (CI) from 1990 to 2021, and gender-, age-, country-, geographical area- and socio-demographic index (SDI)-stratified burdens of VL were analyzed. The trends in the global burden of VL were projected with a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model from 2022 to 2035, and the associations of age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs rates of VL with SDI levels were examined with a smoothing spline model. The global age-standardized incidence [AAPC = -0.25%, 95% CI: (-0.25%, -0.24%)], prevalence [AAPC = -0.06%, 95% CI: (-0.06%, -0.06%)], mortality [AAPC = -0.25%, 95% CI: (-0.25%, -0.24%)] and DALYs rates of VL [AAPC = -2.38%, 95% CI: (-2.44%, -2.33%)] all appeared a tendency towards a decline from 1990 to 2021, and the highest age-standardized incidence [2.55/105, 95% UI: (1.49/105, 4.07/105)], prevalence [0.64/105, 95% UI: (0.37/105, 1.02/105)], mortality [0.51/105, 95% UI: (0, 1.80/105)] and DALYs rates of VL [33.81/105, 95% UI: (0.06/105, 124.09/105)] were seen in tropical Latin America in 2021. The global age-standardized incidence and prevalence of VL were both higher among men [0.57/105, 95% UI: (0.45/105, 0.72/105); 0.14/105, 95% UI: (0.11/105, 0.18/105)] than among women [0.27/105, 95% UI: (0.21/105, 0.33/105); 0.06/105, 95% UI: (0.05/105, 0.08/105)], and the highest mortality of VL was found among children under 5 years of age [0.24/105, 95% UI: (0.08/105, 0.66/105)]. The age-standardized incidence (r = -0.483, P < 0.001), prevalence (r = -0.483, P < 0.001), mortality (r = -0.511, P < 0.001) and DALYs rates of VL (r = -0.514, P < 0.001) correlated negatively with SDI levels from 1990 to 2021. In addition, the global burden of VL was projected with the BAPC model to appear a tendency towards a decline from 2022 to 2035, and the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality and DALYs rates were projected to be reduced to 0.11/105, 0.03/105, 0.02/105 and 1.44/105 in 2035, respectively. Although the global burden of VL appeared an overall tendency towards a decline from 1990 to 2021, the burden of VL showed a tendency towards a rise in Central Asia and western sub-Saharan African areas. The age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates of VL were relatively higher among men, and the age-standardized mortality of VL was relatively higher among children under 5 years of age. The global burden of VL was projected to continue to decline from 2022 to 2035.
- Research Article
15
- 10.1186/s12890-022-02301-7
- Jan 4, 2023
- BMC pulmonary medicine
BackgroundLower respiratory infections (LRIs) cause substantial mortality and morbidity. The present study reported and analysed the burden of LRIs in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region between 1990 and 2019, by age, sex, etiology, and socio-demographic index (SDI).MethodsThe data used in this study were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. The annual incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to LRIs were presented as counts and age-standardised rates per 100,000 population, along with their 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). The average annual percent changes (AAPC) in the age-standardised incidence, death and DALYs rates were calculated using Joinpoint software and correlations (Pearson’s correlation coefficient) between the AAPCs and SDIs were calculated using Stata software.ResultsIn 2019, there were 34.1 million (95% UI 31.7–36.8) incident cases of LRIs in MENA, with an age-standardised rate of 6510.2 (95% UI 6063.6–6997.8) per 100,000 population. The number of regional DALYs was 4.7 million (95% UI 3.9–5.4), with an age-standardised rate of 888.5 (95% UI 761.1–1019.9) per 100,000 population, which has decreased since 1990. Furthermore, Egypt [8150.8 (95% UI 7535.8–8783.5)] and Afghanistan [61.9 (95% UI 52.1–72.6)] had the highest age-standardised incidence and death rates, respectively. In 2019, the regional incidence and DALY rates were highest in the 1–4 age group, in both females and males. In terms of deaths, pneumococcus and H. influenza type B were the most and least common types of LRIs, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the burden of LRIs generally decreased with increasing SDI. There were significant positive correlations between SDI and the AAPCs for the age-standardised incidence, death and DALY rates (p < 0.05). Over the 1990–2019 period, the regional incidence, deaths and DALYs attributable to LRIs decreased with AAPCs of − 1.19% (− 1.25 to − 1.13), − 2.47% (− 2.65 to − 2.28) and − 4.21% (− 4.43 to − 3.99), respectively.ConclusionsThe LRI-associated burden in the MENA region decreased between 1990 and 2019. SDI had a significant positive correlation with the AAPC and pneumococcus was the most common underlying cause of LRIs. Afghanistan, Yemen and Egypt had the largest burdens in 2019. Further studies are needed to investigate the effectiveness of healthcare interventions and programs to control LRIs and their risk factors.
- Research Article
1
- 10.1016/j.archger.2024.105700
- Mar 1, 2025
- Archives of Gerontology and Geriatrics
Global burden of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease in older adults (60-89 years old), 1990-2019: systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- Research Article
1
- 10.1016/j.dcit.2024.100030
- Jan 1, 2024
- Decoding Infection and Transmission
Global, regional, and national burden of malaria, 1990–2021: Findings from the global burden of disease study 2021
- Research Article
10
- 10.1093/bjd/ljae352
- Sep 13, 2024
- The British journal of dermatology
Acne vulgaris is a common skin condition affecting adolescents and young adults worldwide, yet data on the burden and trends of this disease remain limited. We aimed to investigate trends in the burden of acne vulgaris among adolescents and young adults aged 10-24 years at global, regional and national levels. We retrieved data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 for individuals aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. We analysed the numbers, age-standardized rates and average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) of the prevalence, incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for acne vulgaris at the global, regional and national levels. Additionally, we examined these global trends by age, sex and Sociodemographic Index (SDI). Globally, the age-standardized prevalence rate of acne vulgaris among adolescents and young adults increased from 8563.4 per 100 000 population [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 7343.5-9920.1] in 1990 to 9790.5 (95% UI 8420.9-11 287.2) per 100 000 population in 2021, with an AAPC of 0.43 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.41-0.46]. The age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized DALY rate also showed a similar upward trend. Regionally, Western Europe had the highest age-standardized prevalence, incidence and DALY rates, while North Africa and the Middle East had the largest increase in these rates. By SDI quintile, the high SDI region had the highest age-standardized prevalence, incidence and DALY rates from 1990 to 2021, whereas the low-middle SDI region had the lowest burden of acne vulgaris but experienced the most significant increase in these rates. Globally, the age-standardized prevalence rate of acne vulgaris in 2021 was approximately 25% higher in young women than in young men (10 911.8 per 100 000 population vs. 8727.8 per 100 000 population). Among all age groups, adolescents aged 15-19 years had the highest age-specific prevalence rate, while adolescents aged 10-14 years experienced the largest increase from 1990 to 2021 (AAPC 0.50, 95% CI 0.48-0.52). The burden of acne vulgaris among adolescents and young adults has continued to increase in nearly all countries since the 1990s. Managing this condition remains a significant challenge, necessitating more effective and targeted interventions to control the acne burden.
- Research Article
1
- 10.1186/s12889-025-21993-0
- Mar 6, 2025
- BMC Public Health
BackgroundLaryngeal cancer (LC), as a common head and neck tumor, significantly impacts the quality of life. Utilizing data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, we sought to delve deeply into the global LC burden experienced by individuals aged 55 and older from 1990 to 2021 at the global, regional, and national levels. This research encompassed three key indicators: incidence rate, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).MethodsBased on the GBD 2021 database, we selected data from 204 countries and regions covering the period from 1990 to 2021 for individuals aged 55 and above. We analyzed LC’s performance in terms of incidence, mortality, and DALYs, calculating the age-standardized rates and the mean average annual percent change (AAPC) at global, regional, and national levels. In our analysis of global trends, we carefully considered multiple variables including age, sex, and the socio-demographic index (SDI). Furthermore, we assessed potential risk factors for LC-associated DALYs and made prospective predictions for the possible scenario by 2035.ResultsGlobally, the age-standardized DALY rate of LC among adults aged 55 years and older has undergone significant changes. Specifically, this rate dropped sharply from 245.89 cases per 100,000 people in 1990 to 153.76 cases per 100,000 people in 2021, with an AAPC showing a decreasing trend of -2.916. Simultaneously, the age-standardized incidence rate and mortality rate also exhibited a similar downward trend. From a regional perspective, South Asia ranked highest in relevant indicators in 2021, reporting a death toll of 29,258.96, confirmed cases of 34,234.23, and DALYs related to LC reaching 709,622.00. In contrast, the figures in Oceania were the lowest, with only 26.23 deaths, 29.53 incident cases, and 609.09 DALYs. When divided according to the quintiles of the SDI, in 2021, the medium-high SDI led in incidence rates, while the low SDI ranked last. However, in terms of mortality and DALY rates, medium-low SDI topped the list, with high SDI being the lowest. In terms of gender differences, in 2021, the age-standardized DALY rate of LC in males was approximately 7.13 times that of females, with the former reaching 282.12 cases per 100,000 people and the latter only 39.59 cases per 100,000 people. Among all age groups, a notable decrease was observed in the age-specific incidence rate and DALY for adults aged 60–64 years, with AAPC values of -0.123 (95% CI: -0.130 to -0.116) and − 3.553 (95% CI: -3.620 to -3.486), respectively. Similarly, the mortality rate for adults aged 65–69 years also showed a significant decline, with an AAPC of -0.123 (95% CI: -0.127 to -0.118). Additionally, tobacco has been revealed as the most important risk factor affecting the mortality and DALY of LC in adults aged 55 years and older. Looking ahead, it is predicted that by 2035, the incidence rate, mortality rate, and DALY rate of LC among people over 55 years old will continue to decline.ConclusionsDespite the current data and future predictions indicating a decline in the global age-standardized incidence rate, the absolute number of estimates continues to increase. Therefore, we advocate that cancer prevention strategies should place greater emphasis on vigorously addressing modifiable risk factors, particularly for the male population, which requires special attention and scientific intervention.
- Research Article
3
- 10.3389/fmed.2024.1515961
- Dec 10, 2024
- Frontiers in Medicine
BackgroundPulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is a severe and progressive lung disease that significantly impairs patients’ health and imposes heavy clinical and economic burdens. Currently, there is a lack of comprehensive epidemiological analysis on the global burden and trends of PAH.MethodsWe estimated the prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of PAH from 1990 to 2021 using the results of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). The average annual percentage changes were used to estimate the trends of PAH across 21 regions and 204 countries and territories.ResultsFrom 1990 to 2021, the number of prevalent cases and deaths associated with PAH worldwide increased by 81.5 and 48.4%. However, the age-standardized prevalence rate of PAH remained relatively stable, while the age-standardized mortality rate and DALYs declined. In 2021, the global age-standardized prevalence rate of PAH was 2.28 per 100,000, with 1.78 per 100,000 in males and 2.75 per 100,000 in females. The age-standardized mortality rate of PAH globally was 0.27 per 100,000, and the age-standardized DALYs was 8.24 per 100,000. Among the 21 regions, Western Europe had the highest age-standardized prevalence rate (3.56 per 100,000), while North Africa and the Middle East had the highest age-standardized mortality rate (0.44 per 100,000) and DALYs (14.81 per 100,000). Additionally, older individuals and females are at higher risk of PAH. The age-standardized mortality rate and DALYs associated with PAH increase with age, peaking in the 95+ age group. As the sociodemographic index increased, the age-standardized prevalence rates showed an upward trend, while both the age-standardized mortality rates and DALYs exhibited a downward trend.ConclusionFrom 1990 to 2021, the overall trend of PAH burden presents regional and national variations and differs by age, sex, and sociodemographic index. These findings emphasize the importance of implementing targeted interventions to alleviate the burden of PAH.
- Research Article
- 10.1186/s12885-025-14416-1
- Jun 6, 2025
- BMC Cancer
AimThe issue of breast cancer in young women (BCYW) has gained increasing attention over the past few decades. However, a notable gap exists in the literature concerning the comparison of the disease burden of BCYW with that of other age groups. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the disparities in global, regional, and national burden between BCYW and their middle-aged and elderly counterparts.MethodsThe breast cancer data in this study were collected from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021). The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR), and the Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) were employed to assess the disease burden of BCYW. The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model was used to forecast disease burden from 2022 to 2030.ResultsThe AAPC of ASIR of BCYW from 1990 to 2021 was 0.91 (95% CI: 0.77 to 1.05), exceeding the global average (0.49, 95% CI: 0.40 to 0.58) as well as both middle-aged (0.60, 95% CI: 0.47 to 0.73) and elderly groups (0.30, 95% CI: 0.21 to 0.39). The AAPC for ASMR of BCYW experienced a marginal increase of 0.02 (95%CI: -0.07 to 0.11) from 1990 to 2021, surpassing the rates observed in both the middle-aged group (-0.40, 95%CI: -0.47 to -0.32) and the elderly group (-0.50, 95%CI: -0.62 to -0.38). The ASIR in BCYW significantly increased in regions with low (AAPC = 1.87), low-middle (AAPC = 2.32), middle (AAPC = 1.84), and high-middle SDI (AAPC = 0.98), while it remained unchanged in regions with high SDI (AAPC = -0.02). This trend was also observed among middle-aged and older groups. The ASMR in BCYW significantly increased in regions with low (AAPC = 1.01) and low-middle SDI (AAPC = 1.25), but remained unchanged in regions with middle SDI (AAPC = 0.02), while it decreased in regions with high-middle (AAPC = -1.10) and high SDI (AAPC = -1.60). Among the middle-aged and elderly populations, there was an increase in ASMR rates observed in regions with low, low-middle, and middle SDI groups (all AAPC > 0), whereas a decrease was noted in the regions with high-middle and high SDI (all AAPC < 0). The BAPC predicts a consistent annual increase in ASIR, ASMR, ASPR, and ASDR of BCYW globally and in China from 2022 to 2030. Notably, China has higher ASIR and ASPR rates compared to the global average, while its ASMR and ASDR rates are lower.ConclusionThe burden of BCYW was particularly significant in regions with low-SDI, low-middle SDI, and middle SDI. Despite the progress made, China still faces considerable challenges in effectively addressing this issue. The prevention and control of BCYW must remain a priority. Different countries and regions should develop personalized, targeted intervention strategies for this population and establish public health policies tailored to the specific needs of each region.
- Research Article
- 10.1200/jco.2025.43.5_suppl.325
- Feb 10, 2025
- Journal of Clinical Oncology
325 Background: Prostate cancer is the second most common cancer in men globally, posing significant health challenges. Conflicting findings on its global burden and trends necessitate updated analyses. This study provides recent estimates of prostate cancer's global, regional, and national burden from 1990 to 2021, analyzes temporal trends, and offers epidemiological insights for clinicians, researchers, and policymakers. Methods: We analyzed data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 on prostate cancer cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2021, including age-standardized rates (ASRs) for incidence, mortality, and DALYs. Trend analyses utilized average annual percent change (AAPC) calculations and joinpoint regression models. Age-period-cohort analysis assessed the effects of age, period, and cohort on incidence and mortality trends. Pearson correlation evaluated associations between ASRs and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) to explore socioeconomic impacts. Results: From 1990 to 2021, global prostate cancer cases, deaths, and DALYs increased, reflecting aging populations. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) showed a slight global increase (AAPC = 0.15, 95% CI: 0.05–0.25), while the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) decreased (ASMR AAPC = -0.83, 95% CI: -0.92 to -0.74; ASDR AAPC = -0.75, 95% CI: -0.82 to -0.68), indicating improved survival. High-SDI regions had decreasing ASMR and ASDR despite high ASIRs due to better detection and treatment. Low-SDI regions saw increases in ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR, with the highest mortality and DALY rates, indicating rising burden and potential healthcare access issues. Joinpoint regression showed initial increases then decreases in ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR, with regional differences in timing. Age-period-cohort analysis revealed age effects with rising incidence and mortality risks, declining incidence risk in the oldest age groups. Period effects showed incidence risk increasing until 2011–2017, then declining; mortality risk decreased over time. Cohort effects showed stable then increasing incidence risk in younger cohorts, while mortality risk decreased across cohorts, reflecting healthcare improvements. Conclusions: The global absolute burden of prostate cancer has increased, but age-standardized mortality and DALY rates have decreased, especially in high-SDI regions due to advancements in detection and treatment. Low-SDI regions face rising incidence and mortality, highlighting growing disparities. Targeted interventions and resource allocation in low-SDI regions are needed to address the increasing burden and reduce global health inequalities.
- Research Article
- 10.3389/fonc.2024.1499384
- Dec 18, 2024
- Frontiers in oncology
Gastric cancer (GC) is a significant public health concern in the USA, and its burden is on the rise. This study utilized the latest data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. We provided descriptive statistics on the incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized rates (ASRs) of GC across the USA and states. By calculating percentage changes and average annual percentage changes (AAPC), along with conducting age-period-cohort analysis, we assessed the trends in the burden of GC. Decomposition analysis was then performed, followed by the application of an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to forecast changes in ASRs through 2036. From 1990 to 2021, the number of incidence and prevalence of GC in the USA increased, but age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) trended downward (AAPC = -0.73, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.77 to -0.68) and age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR) (AAPC = -0.99, 95% CI: -1.08 to -0.9) showed a decreasing trend. In addition, the number of deaths, DALYs, age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and age-standardized DALYs rates (ASDR) in GC showed a decreasing trend. The burden of GC was significantly higher in males compared to females. In addition, we found that the highest incidence and prevalence in females was in the age group of 75-79 years, whereas the highest incidence and prevalence in males was in the age group of 70-74 years. GC is a major public health issue in the USA. Although ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR for GC are decreasing, the number of incidence and prevalence of GC in the USA remains high, and the disease burden of GC in the USA remains high. Strengthening preventive interventions, particularly for men and patients over the age of 60, will be crucial in the future.
- Research Article
- 10.1186/s12916-025-04268-8
- Jul 28, 2025
- BMC medicine
Epilepsy among older populations has emerged as a growing global health concern in recent decades. However, comprehensive analyses of epilepsy burden among older adults are limited. This study aimed to assess the global burden of idiopathic epilepsy in the population aged 60 and above from 1990 to 2021 and project trends through 2035. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2021, we analyzed epilepsy-related metrics including incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) across 204 countries and territories, stratified by age, sex, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Data analysis encompassed relative change calculations, as well as average annual percentage change (AAPC). Additionally, we performed a decomposition analysis to determine the contributions of population growth, aging, and epidemiological changes, and used Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) modeling to project future burden through 2035. From 1990 to 2021, the global burden of idiopathic epilepsy in older adults increased substantially, with rises in age-standardized incidence (26.64%), prevalence (20.01%), mortality (4.45%), and DALYs (0.32%). Males consistently showed higher burden across metrics. Regional analysis revealed significant disparities, with Western Europe reporting the highest age-standardized incidence rate and Andean Latin America the highest prevalence rate in 2021. Higher SDI regions demonstrated better outcomes in mortality and DALYs, though showing unique increases in age-standardized rates. Population growth emerged as the primary driver of increased burden across regions. Projections through 2035 indicate continuing increases in incidence (AAPC: 1.64%) and prevalence (AAPC: 1.34%) rates, while mortality (AAPC: -1.29%) and DALY (AAPC: -0.12%) rates are expected to decline. The global burden of idiopathic epilepsy in older adults has increased significantly, with notable disparities across regions and socioeconomic levels.While projected declines in mortality and DALY rates suggest improving healthcare outcomes, rising incidence and prevalence rates highlight the need for enhanced prevention strategies and specialized geriatric epilepsy care, particularly in resource-limited settings.
- Research Article
- 10.1097/md.0000000000045215
- Oct 24, 2025
- Medicine
As a severe public health issue, depressive disorders (DD) have caused an increasing burden of disease. The global status of women’s DD is underestimated, particularly the burden on women of child-bearing age (WCBA). We aim to investigate the pattern and trend of DD among WCBA from 1990 to 2021. We retrieved data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 on the incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. And we calculated the average annual percentage changes in age-standardized incidence rates, age-standardized prevalence rates, and DALYs rates, stratified by age and socio-demographic index (SDI), to quantify temporal trends. Additionally, a Bayesian age–period–cohort model was employed to project age-standardized rates up to 2030. Spearman correlation analysis was used to examine the correlation between age-standardized rates and SDI. In 2021, globally, the number of DALYs of DD among WCBA increased by 69% from 12.4 million to 21.0 million compared to 1990. The global burden of DD among WCBA has significantly increased from 1990 to 2021, with projections indicating continued growth. The average annual percentage changes from 1990 to 2021 for the age-standardized DALYs rates, age-standardized prevalence rates, and age-standardized incidence rates all demonstrated a highly significant positive correlation with SDI levels. Globally, the DALYs rate, incidence rate, and prevalence rate of DD increase with age. The rising global incidence of DD, coupled with regional variations in prevalence and DALYs, underscores the urgent need for innovative prevention and healthcare strategies to mitigate the burden among WCBA worldwide.
- Research Article
4
- 10.7189/jogh.14.04172
- Aug 30, 2024
- Journal of global health
As hypertensive heart disease (HHD) presents a significant public health challenge globally, we analysed its global, regional, and national burdens and trends from 1990 to 2019. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study, focussing on the age-standardised prevalence rates (ASPRs) of HHD prevalence, age-standardised disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates, average annual percentage change (AAPC), and risk factor attributions. We compared the HHD burden across sociodemographic index (SDI) strata, gender, age groups, and 204 countries and territories. In 2019, the global prevalence of HHD was estimated at 18 598 thousand cases, with DALYs reaching 21 508 thousand. From 1990 to 2019, the ASPRs increased (AAPC = 0.21; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.17, 0.24), while the age-standardised DALY rates decreased (AAPC = -0.45; 95% CI = -1.23, -0.93). We observed the highest increase in ASPRs in high-middle SDI quantile countries, and an overall negative correlation between age-standardised DALY rates and SDI. Individuals above 70 years of age were the most affected, particularly elderly women. There has been a significant increase in HHD burden attributed to high body mass index (BMI) since 1990. The burden of HHD is concentrated in the middle SDI quintile, with population ageing and growth being major drivers for the increase in DALYs. We identified opportunities for reducing age-standardised DALY rates in the middle SDI quintile or lower. Despite a declining trend in the age-standardised DALY rates, the ASPRs of HHD continue to rise, especially in high-middle SDI regions. Meanwhile, countries in middle and lower SDI quintiles face a higher burden of age-standardised DALY rates. Targeted attention towards elderly women and controlling high BMI, alongside enhancing hypertension and HHD management awareness, is crucial for reducing the global burden of HHD.
- Research Article
4
- 10.1186/s12889-025-21414-2
- Jan 22, 2025
- BMC Public Health
BackgroundYoung chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) refers to people with COPD between the ages of 20 and 50 years. Current epidemiological studies focus on local geography, and there is a lack of global-level analysis. This study provides in-depth analyses of the disease burden of young COPD at global, regional, and national levels.MethodsThis study used the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD). The age-standardised prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardised death rate (ASDR), and age-standardised disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate were used to describe the disease burden. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) during the study period was calculated. Joinpoint regression analysis examined the time trend from 1990 to 2021. Annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) were calculated. Risk factors were reported by region and sex.ResultsIn 2021, the global number of young COPD cases was 30,384,539, and the ASPR, ASIR, ASDR, and age-standardised DALYs rates fell slightly. Oceania reported the highest ASPR, ASDR, and age-standardised DALYs rate. High-income North America has the highest ASIR. In 2021, the prevalence, incidence, death, and DALYs rates exhibited similar trends, increasing with age. From 1990 to 2021, both the prevalence and death rates showed a consistent downward trend across all age groups. Joinpoint regression analysis indicated a slight increase in both the ASPR (APC: 0.13; 95% CI: 0.06 to 0.19) and the ASIR (APC: 0.17; 95% CI: 0.10 to 0.24) during the period from 1990 to 1994. The leading DALYs attributable to risk factors for young COPD are household air pollution from solid fuels (20.4%), ambient particulate matter pollution (17.9%), and smoking (13.5%).ConclusionsThe global burden of ASPR, ASIR, ASDR, and age-standardised DALYs rates in young COPD has decreased, however, the absolute number of patients has increased. The global burden shows noticeable regional differences, with particularly high burdens observed in Oceania. Improving air quality, promoting smoking cessation, and increasing access to lung function tests, raising awareness of young COPD are key strategies for alleviating the burden of young COPD.
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