Global-mean radiative feedbacks and forcing in atmosphere-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean climate change experiments

Abstract

Analysis of the available Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models suggests that sea surface temperature-forced, atmosphere-only global warming experiments (“amip4K,” “amipFuture,” and “aqua4K”) are a good guide to the global cloud feedbacks determined from coupled atmosphere-ocean CO2-forced simulations, including the intermodel spread. Differences in the total climate feedback parameter between the experiments arise primarily from differences in the clear-sky feedbacks which can largely be anticipated from the nature of the experimental design. The effective CO2 radiative forcing is anticorrelated with the total feedback in the coupled simulations. This anticorrelation strengthens as the experimental design becomes simpler, the number of potential degrees of freedom of the system's response reduces, and the relevant physical processes can be identified. In the aquaplanet simulations the anticorrelation is primarily driven by opposing changes in the rapid cloud adjustment to CO2 and the net cloud response to increased surface warming. Establishing a physical explanation for this behavior is important future work.