Global Markets for Indian Basmati Rice: Trends and Forecasts

Abstract

The present study was carried out to examine the trends, variability, direction of trade, and future projections of basmati rice exports from India. The study was based on secondary data collected from the APEDA website for the period 1990-91 to 2022-23. Descriptive analysis, compound annual growth rate, instability index, and Markov chain analysis were employed to achieve the objectives of the study. The results indicated that basmati rice exports showed an overall increasing trend during the overall study period in both quantity and value terms, with a CAGR of 10.5 per cent for quantity, 16.2 per cent for value and 5.1 per cent for unit value. The instability was the highest for export value (44.9 per cent) compared to the quantity exported (26.9 per cent) and unit price (20.7 per cent) throughout the overall period. Throughout this period, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, UAE, Yemen, USA, Kuwait and the U.K. remained the top importing nations of Indian basmati rice. From 2012-13 to 2022-23, Saudi Arabia and UAE stood as the most stable countries with retention probabilities of 0.485 and 0.480, respectively. The study projected that Saudi Arabia and Iran would emerge as the primary markets for Indian basmati rice between 2023-24 and 2027-28. Keywords: Compound annual growth, direction of trade, exports, instability index. JEL Codes: C88, F13, Q17.