Abstract
This study highlights the major players in the global food balance, potential implications of COVID-19 on global food supply, and SDG-2 (zero hunger). It found that developing countries, fifteen from Africa followed by ten from Latin America, six from Oceania, and four from Asia, are the most vulnerable to changes cereal supply shocks. It concludes that the current pandemic is likely to cause transitory food insecurity across such vulnerable countries. The effects of the pandemic on food security (SDG-2) may persist longer as a combined effect of economic slowdown and increase in poverty, limiting food supply and access beyond 2020.
Highlights
Arguably the world has enough food to feed everyone, food supply and distribution is not even in space and time
We highlight potential implications of COVID-19 combined with other externalities on global food supply using scenariobased exploratory analysis identifying countries most vulnerable to food supply shocks and on UN Sustainable Development Goal 2 (SDG-2: zero hunger goal)
The pandemic and associated direct and indirect impacts assessment are characterised by complexities and uncertainties, the scenariobased analysis provided here gives insights into implications for global food security in the form of changes in the components of food balance
Summary
Arguably the world has enough food to feed everyone, food supply and distribution is not even in space and time. Average diets supply 2881 kcal/person/day against the average dietary energy requirement of 2353 kcal/person/day [4] At both macro- and micro-levels, regions periodically experience food shortages due to unfavorable conditions for food production, environmental degradation, and labor or supply chain disruptions due to extreme weather, economic crises, conflicts/insecurity, sanctions, and health shocks including epidemics [8]. Climate change impacts such including droughts, floods, heatwaves, and cold spells can exacerbate pressures on food production and food security [20,21]. Measures are a typical outcome of Public Health Emergencies of international concern; for example, the Ebola outbreak during 2014–2016, known as the West Africa Ebola Epidemic, significantly affected the private sector, agricultural production, and trade [2]
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