Global Disparities in Liver Transplantation Relative to the Burden of Cirrhosis and Other Chronic Liver Diseases (2000-2023).

Global Disease Burden From Acute Glomerulonephritis 1990–2019

We recently read the article by Shin YH et al., utilizing the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 to analyze the trends in the global burden of asthma and atopic dermatitis (AD) from 1990 to 2021 [1]. This study found that while the total number of cases has been increasing, the age-standardized prevalence rates have been declining. Given that the GBD has been updated to the 2021 version [2], it is essential to uncover the latest burden of asthma and AD. Therefore, we analyzed the prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for asthma and AD, focusing exclusively on the data from 2021. Specifically, we conducted a cross-sectional analysis of the age-, sex-, and socio-demographic index (SDI)-specific burden, which is crucial for understanding the burden and informing strategies for prevention, control, and treatment. It is important to note that the GBD does not provide mortality data for AD. Consequently, our analysis and the presented figures do not include mortality data for this condition. In 2021, the highest age-standardized prevalence (ASP) and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) for asthma were observed in the High-income North America region, whereas the highest age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate (ASDR) were reported in the Oceania region. For AD, the highest ASP, ASIR, and ASDR were all recorded in the High-income Asia Pacific region (Figure 1; Figure S1). In terms of age distribution, the ASP and ASIR of asthma are primarily concentrated in children and adolescents, whereas the ASMR and ASDR are predominantly observed in the elderly population. In contrast, the disease burden of AD is mainly concentrated in children and adolescents (Figure 2). Regarding gender differences, no significant disparities are observed in the burden of asthma between males and females. However, the burden of AD is notably higher in females compared with males, which may be attributed to multifaceted etiology, encompassing culturally idealized expectations of appearance for females, hormonal influences such as the impact of sex hormones on immune responses and skin barrier function and genetic predispositions with a spotlight on filaggrin gene mutations (Figure 2) [3-5]. When stratified by SDI, the ASP and ASIR of asthma are significantly higher in high-SDI regions than in low-SDI regions, whereas the ASMR and ASDR of asthma are markedly higher in low-SDI regions than in high-SDI regions, which is due to limited access to and affordability of essential asthma treatment medications, leading to severe morbidity [6]. On the contrary, the disease burden of AD is predominantly concentrated in high-SDI regions (Figure S2). Overall, our study underscores the heterogeneity in the burden of asthma and AD across different age groups, genders, and socio-demographic regions. Addressing these disparities requires targeted strategies that consider the specific drivers of burden in each context. For asthma, this should include improving access to preventive care and treatment in lower-income regions, while for AD, interventions aimed at early childhood may be most effective. Additionally, to effectively manage AD, key interventions include regular moisturization to maintain skin hydration and the use of emollients to repair the skin barrier. It is also crucial to avoid irritants and allergens, modify bathing practices by using lukewarm water and gentle, fragrance-free cleansers, and consider environmental controls such as maintaining optimal indoor humidity levels to prevent skin dryness and irritation. Our findings highlight the importance of context-specific interventions and underscore the need for continued monitoring and research to effectively reduce the burden of these common allergic diseases. We appreciate the excellent works by the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 collaborators. The authors have nothing to report. The authors have nothing to report. The authors declare no conflicts of interest. Data sources and code used in the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 are available on the internet (http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool). The data presented is unpublished elsewhere and are not duplicated. Figure S1. Age-standardized rates of prevalence, incidence, mortality and DALYs of asthma and atopic dermatitis in 2021 in 21 GBD regions. Error bars indicate the 95% uncertainty interval for age-standardized rates. Abbreviations: Age-standardized prevalence (ASP); Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR); Age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR); Age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate (ASDR). Figure S2. Age-standardized rates of prevalence, incidence, mortality and DALYs of asthma and atopic dermatitis in 2021 in five SDI regions. Error bars indicate the 95% uncertainty interval for age-standardized rates. Abbreviations: Age-standardized prevalence (ASP); Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR); Age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR); Age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate (ASDR). Please note: The publisher is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting information supplied by the authors. Any queries (other than missing content) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article.

Background:To date, no study has evaluated trends in the burden of alcohol-induced cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2019 study. Herein, we report on the global burden of alcohol-induced cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases in terms of age, sex, and sociodemographic index (SDI) from 1990 to 2019, based on analysis of GBD 2019 data.Methods:The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to determine the trends in the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for alcohol-induced cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases.Results:From 1990 to 2019, the global age-standardized incidence rate showed an upward trend (EAPC = 0.10), whereas the global age-standardized mortality rate and DALYs showed a downward trend (EAPC = − 0.88 and − 0.89, respectively). Low-(187.08 in 2019) and low-middle (178.11 in 2019)SDI regions had much higher age-standardized DALYs. Eastern Europe saw the largest increases in the age-standardized mortality rate and DALYs. Lithuania had the largest increase in mortalities caused by alcohol-induced cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases(EAPC = 4.61). The age-standardized mortality rates and DALYs were higher in men than in women.Conclusion:From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate of alcohol-induced cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases increased globally; however, both the age-standardized mortality rate and DALYs caused by alcohol-induced cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases showed decreasing trends. Future studies should devise preventive strategies for low and low-middle SDI regions, Eastern Europe, Lithuania, and other high-risk regions.

BackgroundThe zoonotic infectious diseases of poverty (zIDPs) are a group of diseases contributing to global poverty, with significant impacts on a substantial population. This study aims to describe the global, regional, and national burden of zIDPs—schistosomiasis, cystic echinococcosis, cysticercosis, and food-borne trematodiases (FBTs)—to support policy making and resource allocation for their control and elimination.MethodsData of zIDPs from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 were retrieved from 1990 to 2021. The age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rate were described and the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify their burden and temporal trends. Spearman correlation analysis was conducted to examine the relationship between age-standardized rates and Socio-demographic Index (SDI).ResultsIn 2021, these zIDPs exhibited a certain level of ASPRs and age-standardized DALY rates, while maintaining relatively low ASMRs. Noticeably, schistosomiasis presented the highest ASPR of 1914.299 (95% UI: 1378.920, 2510.853 per 100,000 population) and an age-standardized DALY rate of 21.895 (95% UI: 12.937, 37.278 per 100,000 population) among the zIDPs. The tapestry of burden—woven predominantly through low and lower-middle SDI regions—stretched across Africa, Latin America, and parts of Asia. From 1990 to 2021, a kaleidoscopic shift was observed globally as ASPRs, ASMRs, and age-standardized DALY rates declined significantly, as reflected by the EAPC values. Negative correlations were observed between the ASPRs, ASMRs, age-standardized DALY rates of schistosomiasis (r value = − 0.610, − 0.622 and − 0.610), cystic echinococcosis (− 0.676 of ASMR, − 0.550 of age-standardized DALYs), cysticercosis (− 0.420, − 0.797 and − 0.591) and the SDI. In contrast, a slight positive correlation was noted between the ASPR, age-standardized DALY rates of FBTs and SDI with r value of 0.221 and 0.213, respectively.ConclusionThe burden of zIDPs declined across almost all endemic regions from 1990 to 2021, yet still predominated in low and low-middle SDI regions. Substantial challenges exist to achieve the goal of control and elimination of zIDPs, and integrated approaches based on One Health need to be strengthened to improve health outcomes.Graphical

SummaryBackgroundCirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases (collectively referred to as cirrhosis in this paper) are a major cause of morbidity and mortality globally, although the burden and underlying causes differ across locations and demographic groups. We report on results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 on the burden of cirrhosis and its trends since 1990, by cause, sex, and age, for 195 countries and territories.MethodsWe used data from vital registrations, vital registration samples, and verbal autopsies to estimate mortality. We modelled prevalence of total, compensated, and decompensated cirrhosis on the basis of hospital and claims data. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of years of life lost due to premature death and years lived with disability. Estimates are presented as numbers and age-standardised or age-specific rates per 100 000 population, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). All estimates are presented for five causes of cirrhosis: hepatitis B, hepatitis C, alcohol-related liver disease, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), and other causes. We compared mortality, prevalence, and DALY estimates with those expected according to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) as a proxy for the development status of regions and countries.FindingsIn 2017, cirrhosis caused more than 1·32 million (95% UI 1·27–1·45) deaths (440 000 [416 000–518 000; 33·3%] in females and 883 000 [838 000–967 000; 66·7%] in males) globally, compared with less than 899 000 (829 000–948 000) deaths in 1990. Deaths due to cirrhosis constituted 2·4% (2·3–2·6) of total deaths globally in 2017 compared with 1·9% (1·8–2·0) in 1990. Despite an increase in the number of deaths, the age-standardised death rate decreased from 21·0 (19·2–22·3) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 16·5 (15·8–18·1) per 100 000 population in 2017. Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest age-standardised death rate among GBD super-regions for all years of the study period (32·2 [25·8–38·6] deaths per 100 000 population in 2017), and the high-income super-region had the lowest (10·1 [9·8–10·5] deaths per 100 000 population in 2017). The age-standardised death rate decreased or remained constant from 1990 to 2017 in all GBD regions except eastern Europe and central Asia, where the age-standardised death rate increased, primarily due to increases in alcohol-related liver disease prevalence. At the national level, the age-standardised death rate of cirrhosis was lowest in Singapore in 2017 (3·7 [3·3–4·0] per 100 000 in 2017) and highest in Egypt in all years since 1990 (103·3 [64·4–133·4] per 100 000 in 2017). There were 10·6 million (10·3–10·9) prevalent cases of decompensated cirrhosis and 112 million (107–119) prevalent cases of compensated cirrhosis globally in 2017. There was a significant increase in age-standardised prevalence rate of decompensated cirrhosis between 1990 and 2017. Cirrhosis caused by NASH had a steady age-standardised death rate throughout the study period, whereas the other four causes showed declines in age-standardised death rate. The age-standardised prevalence of compensated and decompensated cirrhosis due to NASH increased more than for any other cause of cirrhosis (by 33·2% for compensated cirrhosis and 54·8% for decompensated cirrhosis) over the study period. From 1990 to 2017, the number of prevalent cases more than doubled for compensated cirrhosis due to NASH and more than tripled for decompensated cirrhosis due to NASH. In 2017, age-standardised death and DALY rates were lower among countries and territories with higher SDI.InterpretationCirrhosis imposes a substantial health burden on many countries and this burden has increased at the global level since 1990, partly due to population growth and ageing. Although the age-standardised death and DALY rates of cirrhosis decreased from 1990 to 2017, numbers of deaths and DALYs and the proportion of all global deaths due to cirrhosis increased. Despite the availability of effective interventions for the prevention and treatment of hepatitis B and C, they were still the main causes of cirrhosis burden worldwide, particularly in low-income countries. The impact of hepatitis B and C is expected to be attenuated and overtaken by that of NASH in the near future. Cost-effective interventions are required to continue the prevention and treatment of viral hepatitis, and to achieve early diagnosis and prevention of cirrhosis due to alcohol-related liver disease and NASH.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

ObjectiveThis study aimed to assess the global, regional and national burden of non-rheumatic degenerative mitral valve disease (nrDMVD) from 1990 to 2021 using data from the global burden of disease (GBD) Study 2021, focusing on trends in incidence, prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). The analysis evaluated disparities by age, sex and sociodemographic index (SDI).DesignThis was a systematic analysis leveraging GBD 2021 data and employing decomposition and frontier analyses to quantify the contributions of ageing, population growth and epidemiological transitions. Age-standardised rates (ASRs) and absolute case numbers were analysed across 204 countries and territories.SettingGlobal, regional and national data spanning 1990 to 2021, stratified by SDI quintiles (low to high), 21 GBD regions and age-sex groups.ParticipantsIndividuals diagnosed with nrDMVD, with data representing global populations categorised by age, sex and SDI.Primary and secondary outcome measuresPrimary outcomes included incidence, prevalence, mortality and DALYs. Secondary outcomes encompassed age-standardised rates (ASR) (age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardised prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardised DALYs rate (ASDR)) and temporal trends.ResultsIn 2021, there were 15.49 million prevalent cases (ASPR: 182.13 per 100 000 population) and 36 843 deaths (ASMR: 0.46 per 100 000 population) globally. From 1990 to 2021, ASRs for prevalence, mortality and DALYs declined significantly (estimated annual percentage change range: −0.17% to −0.31%), while absolute case numbers increased by 85% due to population ageing. High-SDI regions exhibited the highest ASIR (28.49 per 100 000) and ASPR (364.24 per 100 000), while low-SDI regions showed underdiagnosis. Sex disparities were pronounced, with higher ASIR (16.13 vs 11.38) and ASPR (385.09 vs 241.64) in females. Projections to 2050 indicated continued ASR declines, yet rising absolute cases. Frontier analysis identified Serbia, Georgia and high-SDI countries (eg, the Netherlands) as having the largest gaps between actual and achievable disease burden.ConclusionsDespite declining ASRs, nrDMVD remains a critical global health challenge, driven by ageing populations and regional inequalities. Targeted interventions addressing gender disparities, ageing-related healthcare and resource allocation in low-SDI regions are urgently needed to mitigate future burdens.

Urinary tract infections (UTIs) are prevalent; however, comprehensive and current epidemiological data remain scarce. This study examined the global, national, and regional burden of UTIs by sex, age, and socio-demographic index (SDI) from 1990 to 2021. The 2021 Global Burden of Disease study included age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardised prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardised death rate (ASDR), and age-standardised disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDAR). The estimated annual percentage change was used to depict temporal trends, whereas Pearson correlation analysis explore its correlation with the human development index (HDI), the SDI, and age-standardised rates (ASRs). An autoregressive integrated moving average model forecasted the UTI burden trends. From 1990 to 2021, the number of UTI cases increased by 66.45%, reaching 4.49 billion cases, with an ASIR of 5,531.88 per 100,000 population. The greatest incidence of UTIs was seen in women and older adult men. Tropical Latin America and low–middle SDI regions exhibited the highest ASIR, ASPR, ASDR, and ASDAR, while East Asia showed the lowest. ASDR and ASDAR decreased with higher SDI levels. ASR and HDI were weakly positively correlated with ASDR and ASDAR. ASIR, ASPR, and ASDAR are projected to increase until 2050. The global burden of UTIs is rising and is influenced by geographical location, age, sex, and economic development, crucial for guiding medical practices and forming relevant policies.

BackgroundThe aim of this study was to describe the trends in incidence, mortality, and burden of esophageal cancer (EC) in Asia from 2010 through 2019 and compare with other global continental data.MethodsWe collected EC data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study from 2010 to 2019 in 49 countries and territories in Asia based on the sociodemographic index (SDI). For all locations, annual case data and age‐standardized rates (ASRs) were extracted to investigate the EC incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability‐adjusted life‐years (DALYs). The ASR relative difference (%) between years and the male/female (M/F) ratio were calculated. Data are reported in values and 95% uncertainty interval (UI).ResultsIn 2019, more than 70% of EC new cases, deaths, prevalence, and DALYs occurred in Asian countries. From 2010 to 2019, incidences, deaths, prevalence cases, and DALY number of EC increased over 1.10‐, 1.07‐, 1.14‐, and 1.03‐fold, in Asia. During this period, the age‐standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age‐standardized death rate (ASDR), age‐standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and age‐standardized DALYs rate (DALYs ASR) of EC decreased by 18, 21, 14, and 22%, respectively. The rate of decline in Asia is higher than in the world and other continents. In 2019, age‐specific incidence, death, prevalence, and DALY cases of EC cancer peaked at 65–74, 70–74, 65–69, and 65–69 years, respectively. In 2019, the highest ASIR, ASDR, ASPR, and DALYs ASR of EC were observed in East Asian countries, while having the highest decreasing trend. In 2019, among high SDI Asian countries, Taiwan had the highest ASIR, ASPR, and DALYs ASR, and the United Arab Emirates had the highest ASDR. Among high‐middle SDIs, Kazakhstan had the highest ASIR, ASPR, ASDR, and DALYs ASR; among middle SDIs, China had the highest ASIR, ASDR, and ASPR, and Viet Nam had the highest DALYs ASR; among low‐middle SDIs, Mongolia had the highest ASIR, ASDR, ASPR, and DALY ASR of EC cancer. Among low SDI Asian countries, Pakistan had the highest ASIR and ASPR, and DALY ASR for EC cancer. For four indicators, in most countries, the ratio of men was higher than women, and in some countries, this ratio reached more than 10 times.ConclusionAlthough the rate of decline in incidence, death, prevalence and burden of EC in Asia was higher than in other areas in the last 10 years, more than 70% of these amounts occur in Asia. Therefore, it appears that adopting appropriate strategies in the field of identifying and controlling modifiable risk factors for EC, implementing screening programs, and timely diagnosis and treatment will help in reducing the burden of this disease in Asian countries.

This study aims to describe temporal trends of thyroid cancer (ThC) from 2010 to 2019, in Asian countries by geographical region and sociodemographic index, compared with global data. Annual case data and age-standardized rates (ASRs) of epidemiological indicators of ThC cancer data were collected from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study from 2010 to 2019 in 49 countries and territories in Asia. The relative difference (%) between years was used to show comparative variations of ASRs for the indicators studied. The female/male ratio was calculated by dividing female ASRs by male ASRs. Also, these rates were compared between the age group ≥70 years old and younger age groups. In 2019, more than 50% of ThC cases and deaths occurred in Asian countries. A total of 53% of ThC patients lived in Asia and more than 60% of the global burden of ThC was imposed on Asian countries. From 2010 to 2019, incidences, deaths, prevalence cases, and DALYs number of ThC cancer increased over 1.28-, 1.26-, 1.3-, and 1.2-fold, in Asia, respectively. During this period, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of ThC cancer increased by 5% and 8%, respectively, while the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) and the age-standardized DALYs rate (DALYs ASR) of ThC cancer decreased by 6% and 4%, respectively. These trends are different from what happens in other continents. In 2019, age-specific incidence, death, prevalence, and DALY cases of ThC cancer were peaking at 50-54, 75-79, 50-54, and 55-59 years, respectively. In 2019, the highest ASIR and ASPR of ThC cancer was observed in high-income Asia Pacific countries and the highest ASDR and DALYs ASR in Southeast Asia countries. Only high-income Asia Pacific countries experienced a decreasing trend in ASIR and ASPR from 2010 to 2019. ASDR and DALYs ASR have the highest decreasing trend in high-income Asia Pacific. In 2019, among high SDI Asian countries, the Republic of Korea had the highest ASIR and ASPR, and Brunei Darussalam had the highest ASDR and DALYs ASR. The highest ASIR, ASDR, ASPR, and DALY ASR of ThC cancer was found in Lebanon and Malaysia (high-middle SDIs), Vietnam (middle SDIs), and Cambodia and Palestine (low-middle SDIs). Among low SDI Asian countries, Pakistan had the highest ASIR, ASDR, ASPR, and DALY ASR of ThC cancer. All indicators for most countries were higher in women than men. More than half of the burden of thyroid cancer is imposed on the residents of the Asian continent. Although the incidence and prevalence of this cancer in Asian countries is lower than that of the world, America, and Europe, the highest rate of death from thyroid cancer occurs in Asia and they witness the highest burden of the disease. Therefore, it seems that implementing early detection strategies and increasing access to treatment facilities in Asia is one of the necessities of thyroid cancer control in its residents.

Global, regional and national burden of ischemic heart disease and its attributable risk factors from 1990 to 2021: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundThis study aimed to describe the trends in incidence, mortality, and burden of tracheal, bronchial and lung (TBL) cancer in Asia from 2010 through 2019 and compare with global and other continental data.MethodsWe collected TBL cancer data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study from 2010 to 2019 in 49 countries and territories in Asia. For all locations, annual case data and age‐standardized rates (ASRs) were used to investigate the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability‐adjusted life‐years (DALYs) of TBL from 2010 to 2019. The relative difference (%) between years was used to show comparative variations of ASRs for the indicators studied.ResultsIn 2019, more than 55% of TBL cancer cases and deaths occurred in Asian countries. A total of 57% of lung cancer patients lived in Asia and almost 60% of the global burden of lung cancer was imposed on Asian countries. From 2010 to 2019, incidences, deaths, prevalence cases, and DALYs number of TBL cancer increased over 1.34‐, 1.31‐, 1.31‐, and 1.26‐fold, in Asia. During this period, the age‐standardized incidence rate (ASIR), the age‐standardized death rate (ASDR), the age‐standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and the age‐standardized DALYs rate (DALYs ASR) of TBL cancer decreased by 1, 3, 4, and 4%, respectively. While at the same time, the decreasing trend of these rates globally and in America and in Europe happened faster. In 2019, age‐specific incidence, death, prevalence, and DALY cases of TBL cancer were peaking at 65–74, 70–74, 65–69, and 65–69 years, respectively. In 2019, the highest ASIR, ASDR, and DALYs ASR of TBL cancer was observed in East Asia countries and the highest ASPR in high‐income Asia Pacific countries. Central Asia and high‐income Asia Pacific countries experienced a decreasing trend in ASIR and ASDR, and the South Asia countries experienced the highest increasing trend from 2010 to 2019. ASPR only decreased in Central Asia, and DALYs ASR only increased in South Asia. In 2019, among high sociodemographic index (SDI) Asian countries, Brunei Darussalam had the highest ASIR, ASDR, and DALYs ASR and the Republic of Korea had the highest ASPR. Among high‐middle SDIs, Turkey and Georgia; among middle SDIs, China and Armenia; among low‐middle SDIs, Mongolia and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea had the highest ASIR, ASDR, ASPR, and DALY ASR of TBL cancer. Among low SDI Asian countries, Pakistan had the highest ASIR, ASDR, ASPR, and DALY ASR of TBL cancer.ConclusionMost of the global burden of lung cancer occurs in Asian countries, and the decreasing trend of incidence, death, prevalence, and burden of this cancer in these countries is slower than in other regions. Therefore, the implementation of necessary measures in order to reduce the process of this cancer is considered urgent.

INTRODUCTIONAs global population aging intensifies, the burden of lip and oral cavity cancer (LOCC) among middle-aged and older adults continues to worsen. This research systematically analyzed global LOCC burden trends among adults aged ≥45 years, aiming to inform evidence-based policy and public health strategies.METHODSKey metrics were obtained from the GBD 2021 database including age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR). Their correlations with the sociodemographic index (SDI) were explored. Joinpoint models assessed trends via annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC). Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) models projected future trends.RESULTSFrom 1990 to 2021, globally, the ASPR (EAPC=0.77; 95% CI: 0.72–0.82) and ASIR (EAPC=0.35; 95% CI: 0.29–0.41) of LOCC among adults aged ≥45 rose significantly, while ASMR (EAPC= -0.15; 95% CI: -0.20 – -0.09) and ASDR (EAPC= -0.25; 95% CI: -0.31 – -0.20) rates declined. Regionally, all SDI quintiles experienced rising ASPR and ASIR, with middle SDI regions showing the fastest growth. Low-middle and low SDI areas saw increases in ASMR and ASDR. A notable correlation was identified between ASPR, ASIR and SDI. East Asia and Oceania had the most severe increases in ASPR/ASIR and ASMR/ASDR, respectively. Males bore a greater burden than females. Population growth and epidemiological shifts drove the rise in ASIR and ASPR, with alcohol and tobacco use as key mortality contributors. Projections estimate ASPR will reach 61.81 (95% UI: 37.31–86.30) and ASIR 17.09 (95% UI: 11.95–22.23) by 2050, with ASMR and ASDR expected to initially decline before rising again.CONCLUSIONSThe study highlights the need for early prevention, especially in high-risk regions and among male adults aged ≥45 years, and emphasizes the importance of considering multiple factors in public health interventions for effective disease management.

Epidemiological trends and burden of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer in Belt and Road Initiative countries: A comprehensive analysis from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database.

In 2016, the World Health Assembly adopted the resolution to eliminate viral hepatitis by 2030. This study aims to provide an overview of the burdens of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) in Europe and their changes from 2010 to 2019 using estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. We used GBD 2019 estimates of the burden associated with HBV-related and HCV-related diseases: acute hepatitis, cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases, and liver cancer. We report total numbers and age-standardised rates per 100 000 for mortality, prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) from 2010 to 2019. For each HBV-related and HCV-related disease and each measure, we analysed temporal changes and percentage changes for the 2010-19 period. In 2019, across all age groups, there were an estimated 2·08 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·66 to 2·54) incident cases of acute hepatitis B and 0·49 million (0·42 to 0·57) of hepatitis C in Europe. There were an estimated 8·24 million (7·56 to 8·88) prevalent cases of HBV-related cirrhosis and 11·87 million (9·77 to 14·41) of HCV-related cirrhosis, with 24·92 thousand (19·86 to 31·03) deaths due to HBV-related cirrhosis and 36·89 thousand (29·94 to 45·56) deaths due to HCV-related cirrhosis. Deaths were estimated at 9·00 thousand (6·88 to 11·62) due to HBV-related liver cancer and 23·07 thousand (18·95 to 27·31) due to HCV-related liver cancer. Between 2010 and 2019, the age-standardised incidence rate of acute hepatitis B decreased (-22·14% [95% UI -35·44 to -5·98]) as did its age-standardised mortality rate (-33·27% [-43·03 to -25·49]); the age-standardised prevalence rate (-20·60% [-22·09 to -19·10]) and mortality rate (-33·19% [-37·82 to -28·13]) of HBV-related cirrhosis also decreased in this time period. The age-standardised incidence rate of acute hepatitis C decreased by 3·24% (1·17 to 5·02) and its age-standardised mortality rate decreased by 35·73% (23·48 to 47·75) between 2010 and 2019; the age-standardised prevalence rate (-6·37% [-8·11 to -4·32]), incidence rate (-5·87% [-11·24 to -1·01]), and mortality rate (-11·11% [-16·54 to -5·53]) of HCV-related cirrhosis also decreased. No significant changes were observed in age-standardised rates of HBV-related and HCV-related liver cancer, although we observed a significant increase in numbers of cases of HCV-related liver cancer across all ages between 2010 and 2019 (16·41% [2·81 to 30·91] increase in prevalent cases). Substantial reductions in DALYs since 2010 were estimated for acute hepatitis B (-27·82% [-36·92 to -20·24]), acute hepatitis C (-27·07% [-15·97 to -39·34]), and HBV-related cirrhosis (-30·70% [-35·75 to -25·03]). A moderate reduction in DALYs was estimated for HCV-related cirrhosis (-6·19% [-0·19 to -12·57]). Only HCV-related liver cancer showed a significant increase in DALYs (10·37% [4·81-16·63]). Changes in age-standardised DALY rates closely resembled those observed for overall DALY counts, except for HCV-liver related cancer (-2·84% [-7·75 to 2·63]). Although decreases in some HBV-related and HCV-related diseases were estimated between 2010 and 2019, HBV-related and HCV-related diseases are still associated with a high burden, highlighting the need for more intensive and coordinated interventions within European countries to reach the goal of elimination by 2030. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

To comprehensively assess the global burden of syphilis and related risk factors over 1990-2021, forecast future disease trends, and understand the impact of syphilis on global health. Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) data were used for age-, sex-, and region-stratified analysis of the numbers and age-standardized rates (per 100,000 population) of syphilis incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Next, a differential analysis of syphilis risk factors was performed. Finally, trends for years after 2021 were predicted using Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) prediction models. In 2021, the total number of syphilis prevalence globally was 70,541,482.80 (95% uncertainty interval: 54,910,897.66-88,207,651.97), with the highest numbers noted in Central Sub-Saharan Africa [4,622.60 (95% uncertainty interval: 3,591.97-5,753.45)]. Over 1990-2021, the global age-standardized prevalence and incidence rates increased, whereas the age-standardized death and DALY rates decreased. Among all groups, infants aged <5 years demonstrated the highest age-standardized DALY rates. Moreover, the lower the sociodemographic index (SDI), the higher was the age-standardized rate. The primary factor contributing to syphilis disease burden was identified to be unsafe sex. BAPC analysis revealed an overall increase in age-standardized prevalence rate in the <5-year age group over 1990-2035, and the highest age-standardized prevalence rate occurred in the 25-34-year age group. Between 1990 and 2021, syphilis occurrence and prevalence increased consistently. Projections indicated a continual increase in syphilis incidence in children aged <5 years, and age-standardized prevalence rates were the highest in adults aged 25-34 years. Our results regarding the epidemiological trends of syphilis and its variations across regions, age groups, and sexes may aid policymakers in addressing the global impact of the disease effectively.