Global burden of gastroesophageal reflux disease in women of perimenopausal age: trends and forecasts

Global Disease Burden From Acute Glomerulonephritis 1990–2019

Objective: To assess the trends in the burden of periodontal disease among individuals aged 60 years and above in China from 1990 to 2021, thereby providing a scientific foundation for the development of targeted prevention and control strategies for periodontal disease in the elderly. Methods: Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021), key indicators including incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rates were analyzed. Age-standardized rates were determined using the global standard population. Trends in the disease burden of periodontal disease among the elderly population in China from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed using Joinpoint regression analysis, and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was applied to forecast the disease burden from 2022 to 2036. Results: The annual average percentage changes (AAPC) in the number of incident cases, prevalent cases, and DALYs due to periodontal disease among individuals aged 60 years and above in China from 1990 to 2021 were 3.215% (95%CI: 3.149%-3.281%, P<0.05), 3.161% (95%CI:3.037%-3.286%, P<0.05), and 3.091%(95%CI:2.887%-3.296%, P<0.05), respectively. The results indicated that the average annual change trends of the number of incident cases, number of prevalent cases, and number of DALYs were real upward trends. Compared with other age groups, the number of incident cases, prevalent cases, and DALYs were the highest among the population aged 60-69 years. The AAPC for age-standardized incidence rate, prevalence, and DALY rates were -0.012 (95%CI:-0.031%-0.008%, P>0.05), 0.023% (95%CI:-0.070%-0.116%, P>0.05), and 0.013% (95%CI:-0.089%-0.115%, P>0.05), respectively. This indicated that the average annual change trends of the age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized prevalence rate, and age-standardized DALY rate might be caused by random fluctuations. Males exhibited higher prevalence and DALY rates than females across all age groups (P<0.05), whereas the incidence rates showed minimal differences between males and females across all age groups. The ARIMA forecast model indicated that the age-standardized incidence rate among males in the elderly population in China was relatively stable, while that among females showed a downward trend; the age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates followed a pattern of "decline-rise-decline". Conclusions: The disease burden of periodontal disease among Chinese adults aged 60 and above showed an overall upward trend from 1990 to 2021, with males and individuals aged 60-69 identified as high-risk groups. With the exacerbation of aging, the prevention and control situation remains severe, necessitating the implementation of gender-differentiated interventions to reduce the disease burden.

Ischemic heart disease (IHD) continues to be the foremost contributor to global morbidity and mortality. This analysis aims to report an updated assessment of prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to IHD and its attributable risk factors in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021, by age, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI). This analysis used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021. IHD was defined as acute myocardial infarction, chronic stable angina, chronic IHD, and heart failure due to IHD. Major indicators used in this study were prevalence, death and DALYs. All estimates were reported as absolute counts and age-standardized rates per 100,000 population, along with their 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Globally, IHD accounted for 254.3 (95%UI: 221.4 to 295.5) million prevalent cases, 9.0 (95%UI: 8.3 to 9.5) million deaths and 188.4 (95%UI: 177.0 to 198.1) million DALYs in 2021. There was a noticeable decline in the global age-standardized death rate (ASDR) [-31.6% (95%UI: -34.9 to -28.3)] and age-standardized DALYs (ASRDALYs) [-28.8% (95%UI: -32.5 to -25.2)] from 1990 to 2021, with an estimated annual percentage change of -1.3 (95%CI: -1.34 to -1.26) and - 1.2 (95%CI: -1.25 to -1.16), respectively. In 2021, the global prevalence, death, and DALY rates of IHD were higher among males across all age groups, while death and DALY rates reaching a peak in the oldest group for both sexes. Regionally, we found a nonlinear but negative association between age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) and SDI. Nationally, similar negative associations were observed between ASRDALYs and SDI. High systolic blood pressure and high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were the factors contributing most to the deaths and DALYs due to IHD. Despite declining global age-standardized death and DALYs rates of IHD, sustained multilevel prevention strategies remain essential. This requires population-wide risk factor reduction, targeted interventions for high-risk populations, and strengthened community healthcare networks to ensure accessible, guideline-based management.

BackgroundVector-borne parasitic infectious diseases associated with poverty (referred to as vb-pIDP), such as malaria, leishmaniasis, lymphatic filariasis, African trypanosomiasis, Chagas disease, and onchocerciasis, are highly prevalent in many regions around the world. This study aims to characterize the recent burdens of and changes in these vb-pIDP globally and provide a comprehensive and up-to-date analysis of geographical and temporal trends.MethodsData on the prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of the vb-pIDP were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 for 21 geographical regions and 204 countries worldwide, from 1990–2021. The age-standardized prevalence rate and DALYs rate by age, sex, and sociodemographic index (SDI) were calculated to quantify temporal trends. Correlation analysis was performed to examine the relationship between the age-standardized rate and the SDI.ResultsOver the past 30 years, the age-standardized prevalence rate and DALYs rate of these vb-pIDP have generally decreased, with some fluctuations. The distribution of vb-pIDP globally is highly distinctive. Except for Chagas disease, the age-standardized prevalence rate and DALYs rate of other vb-pIDP were highest in low-SDI regions by 2021. Malaria had the highest age-standardized prevalence rate (2336.8 per 100,000 population, 95% UI: 2122.9, 2612.2 per 100,000 population) and age-standardized DALYs rate (806.0 per 100,000 population, 95% UI: 318.9, 1570.2 per 100,000 population) among these six vb-pIDP globally. Moreover, significant declines in the age-standardized prevalence rate and DALYs rate have been observed in association with an increase in the SDI . Globally, 0.14% of DALYs related to malaria are attributed to child underweight, and 0.08% of DALYs related to malaria are attributed to child stunting.ConclusionsThe age-standardized prevalence rate and DALY rates for the vb-pIDP showed pronounced decreasing trends from 1990–2021. However, the vb-pIDP burden remains a substantial challenge for vector-borne infectious disease control globally and requires effective control strategies and healthcare systems. The findings provide scientific evidence for designing targeted health interventions and contribute to improving the prevention and control of infectious diseases.Graphical

Analysis of global prevalence, DALY and trends of inflammatory bowel disease and their correlations with sociodemographic index: Data from 1990 to 2019

Background Ischemic heart disease (IHD) continues to be the foremost contributor to global morbidity and mortality. Few studies have comprehensively analysed IHD burden and its attributable risk factors at global, regional, and national levels using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) database. Therefore, updated information on the burden of IHD is essential for public health and advocacy purposes. Purpose To report the prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to IHD and its attributable risk factors in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021, by age, sex, and sociodemographic index (SDI). Methods This study used data from the GBD 2021 database. IHD was defined as acute myocardial infarction, chronic stable angina, chronic IHD, and heart failure due to IHD. Cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was used to model deaths from IHD. The nonfatal estimation of IHD burden was modeled using DisMod-MR 2.1 ,a Bayesian meta-regression tool for disease modeling. All estimates were reported as absolute counts and age-standardised rates (ASRs) per 100,000 population, along with their 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Pearson's correlation test was used to analyse the correlation between ASRs and SDI. Results Globally, IHD accounted for 254.3 (221.4,295.5) million prevalent cases, 9.0 (8.3,9.5) million deaths and 188.4 (177.0,198.1) million DALYs in 2021. There was a noticeable decline in the global age-standardised death rate (ASDR) [-31.6% (-34.9,-28.3)] and age-standardised DALYs (ASRDALYs) [-28.8% (-32.5,-25.2)] from 1990 to 2021, with an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of -1.3 and -1.2, respectively. However, the age-standardised prevalence rate (ASPR) remained steady during the same period, with an EAPC of 0. Comprehensive data on the burden of IHD across 204 countries and territories were presented using detailed tables. In 2021, the global prevalence, death, and DALY rates of IHD were higher among males across all age groups, while death and DALY rates reaching a peak in the oldest group for both sexes. Regionally, we found a nonlinear but negative association between ASPR and SDI (Figure 1). Nationally, similar negative associations were observed between ASDR and SDI, as well as between ASRDALYs and SDI (Figure 2). Globally, high systolic blood pressure and high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were the factors contributing most to the death and DALY rates of IHD. Other major risk factors included smoking, high fasting plasma glucose, air pollution, impaired kidney function, high body-mass index and diet low in whole grains. Conclusion Despite declining global age-standardised death and DALY rates for IHD, sustained multilevel prevention strategies remain essential. This requires population-wide risk factor reduction, targeted interventions for high-risk populations, and strengthened community healthcare networks to ensure accessible, guideline-based management.Figure1.ASRs and SDI, regional level Fugure2. ASRs and SDI, national level

BackgroundMigraine is a common neurological disorder that has become an increasingly significant public health issue. This study aims to analyze the burden of migraine in China and globally from 1990 to 2021, exploring epidemiological trends and differences, thus providing scientific evidence for migraine prevention and control.MethodsBased on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, we assessed migraine burden in China and globally from 1990 to 2021 using indicators including incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized rates. The epidemiological trends were analyzed by calculating the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Health inequality analysis was conducted to explore the association between migraine burden and the sociodemographic index (SDI). Decomposition analysis quantified contributions of age structure, population growth, and epidemiological changes to migraine burden. Additionally, the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was applied to predict migraine burden in China and globally over the next 10 years.ResultsCompared with 1990, the number of migraine cases, prevalence, and DALYs in both China and globally significantly increased by 2021, though the global growth rate was considerably higher. Between 1990 and 2021, China experienced greater increases in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR), and age-standardized DALYs rates (ASDR) than the global average. Migraine burden was predominantly concentrated among adolescents and young adults, and females consistently exhibited a higher burden than males. Health inequality analysis revealed increasing disparity across 204 countries and regions, with a concentrated migraine burden in high socio-demographic index (SDI) countries, positively correlated with SDI. Decomposition analysis indicated that population growth was the primary driver of migraine burden changes in both China and globally. BAPC modeling predicted that the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates for migraine will continue to rise in China, whereas these rates are expected to slightly decline globally.ConclusionsMigraine burden is rising in both China and globally, driven by multiple factors such as age, gender, population growth, and SDI. There is an urgent need for precise interventions to reduce migraine's public health impact.

BackgroundThe zoonotic infectious diseases of poverty (zIDPs) are a group of diseases contributing to global poverty, with significant impacts on a substantial population. This study aims to describe the global, regional, and national burden of zIDPs—schistosomiasis, cystic echinococcosis, cysticercosis, and food-borne trematodiases (FBTs)—to support policy making and resource allocation for their control and elimination.MethodsData of zIDPs from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 were retrieved from 1990 to 2021. The age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rate were described and the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify their burden and temporal trends. Spearman correlation analysis was conducted to examine the relationship between age-standardized rates and Socio-demographic Index (SDI).ResultsIn 2021, these zIDPs exhibited a certain level of ASPRs and age-standardized DALY rates, while maintaining relatively low ASMRs. Noticeably, schistosomiasis presented the highest ASPR of 1914.299 (95% UI: 1378.920, 2510.853 per 100,000 population) and an age-standardized DALY rate of 21.895 (95% UI: 12.937, 37.278 per 100,000 population) among the zIDPs. The tapestry of burden—woven predominantly through low and lower-middle SDI regions—stretched across Africa, Latin America, and parts of Asia. From 1990 to 2021, a kaleidoscopic shift was observed globally as ASPRs, ASMRs, and age-standardized DALY rates declined significantly, as reflected by the EAPC values. Negative correlations were observed between the ASPRs, ASMRs, age-standardized DALY rates of schistosomiasis (r value = − 0.610, − 0.622 and − 0.610), cystic echinococcosis (− 0.676 of ASMR, − 0.550 of age-standardized DALYs), cysticercosis (− 0.420, − 0.797 and − 0.591) and the SDI. In contrast, a slight positive correlation was noted between the ASPR, age-standardized DALY rates of FBTs and SDI with r value of 0.221 and 0.213, respectively.ConclusionThe burden of zIDPs declined across almost all endemic regions from 1990 to 2021, yet still predominated in low and low-middle SDI regions. Substantial challenges exist to achieve the goal of control and elimination of zIDPs, and integrated approaches based on One Health need to be strengthened to improve health outcomes.Graphical

Global, regional, and national burden of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis from 1990 to 2023, and projections to 2050: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Global, regional and national burden of rheumatoid arthritis 1990–2017: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study 2017

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021. Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BackgroundGlomerulonephritis (GN), one of the primary causes of chronic kidney disease (CKD), is gaining recognition as a major public health issue. This research sought to evaluate the worldwide impact of chronic kidney disease due to glomerulonephritis (GN-CKD) between 1990 and 2021 and to forecast trends up to 2036, leveraging data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study.MethodsThe analysis of GN-CKD from 1990 to 2021 utilized GBD open data as a secondary dataset to examine global prevalence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized rates of GN-CKD, and the changing trends of these indicators were statistically analyzed. To assess the practical difference between each country/region and the frontier, we utilized the 2021 DALYs and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). To assist healthcare institutions in formulating more effective public health policies, the age-standardized mortality and DALYs rate until 2036 were predicted using Bayesian age–period–cohort (BAPC) modeling techniques.ResultsThe global prevalence rate of GN-CKD, as indicated by the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), grew 10.81% between 1990 and 2021, with a marginal average annual change of 0.04 (AAPC0.04, 0.03–0.05). Similarly, there was an increase of 15.84% in the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) for GN-CKD during this period, with an average annual trend of 0.50 (AAPC0.50, 0.41–0.59). Moreover, the age-standardized DALYs rate (ASYR) for GN-CKD observed an upward trend of 8.60% from 1990 to 2021, with a modest average annual change of 0.27 (AAPC0.27, 0.17–0.37). Our findings indicate that the impact of GN-CKD differs across gender, geographic areas, and socioeconomic statuses. Elevated fasting plasma glucose levels, high body-mass index (BMI), and elevated systolic blood pressure were the main contributors to deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Fortunately, the burden of GN-CKD is expected to diminish by 2036.ConclusionsThe worldwide impact of GN-CKD has risen, with variations observed between genders and across SDI regions. Encouraging trends point toward a potential reduction in GN-CKD-related burden in the future.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11255-025-04440-2.

Schizophrenia is a chronic mental disorder and one of the greatest contributors to the global burden of disease. This study aimed to analyze the global burden of schizophrenia from 1990 to 2021 and predict its future trends. Data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study were used. Trend analysis was conducted using the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), Joinpoint regression, and age-period-cohort analysis. Future projections were generated using the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model and time-series machine learning (ML) models. 2021, schizophrenia was estimated to affect approximately 23.6 million individuals worldwide, with 1.22 million new cases reported globally. This disorder accounted for 14.82 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost. From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) exhibited a declining trend with an EAPC of -0.04% (95% UI: -0.04% to -0.03%), whereas the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR) demonstrated upward trajectories, showing EAPCs of 0.03% (95% UI: 0.02% to 0.04%) and 0.04%(95% UI: -0.03% to -0.05%), respectively. The peak age of onset was 20-24 years, while prevalence and DALYs peaked at 30-34 years, with males exhibiting a higher disease burden. The ARIMA, PROPHET, and Elastic Net models demonstrated superior predictive performance for forecasting future trends of global ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR. Projections suggest a continued global decline in ASIR, while ASPR and ASDR are expected to rise in the future. Our research indicates that the ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR of schizophrenia exhibit significant correlations with gender, socio-demographic index (SDI) and regions. From 2022 to 2036, while the global ASIR of schizophrenia may decline, both the ASPR and ASDR are projected to rise. The escalating disease burden of schizophrenia poses a significant challenge for countries across all development levels.

ObjectiveThis study aimed to assess the global, regional and national burden of non-rheumatic degenerative mitral valve disease (nrDMVD) from 1990 to 2021 using data from the global burden of disease (GBD) Study 2021, focusing on trends in incidence, prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). The analysis evaluated disparities by age, sex and sociodemographic index (SDI).DesignThis was a systematic analysis leveraging GBD 2021 data and employing decomposition and frontier analyses to quantify the contributions of ageing, population growth and epidemiological transitions. Age-standardised rates (ASRs) and absolute case numbers were analysed across 204 countries and territories.SettingGlobal, regional and national data spanning 1990 to 2021, stratified by SDI quintiles (low to high), 21 GBD regions and age-sex groups.ParticipantsIndividuals diagnosed with nrDMVD, with data representing global populations categorised by age, sex and SDI.Primary and secondary outcome measuresPrimary outcomes included incidence, prevalence, mortality and DALYs. Secondary outcomes encompassed age-standardised rates (ASR) (age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardised prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardised DALYs rate (ASDR)) and temporal trends.ResultsIn 2021, there were 15.49 million prevalent cases (ASPR: 182.13 per 100 000 population) and 36 843 deaths (ASMR: 0.46 per 100 000 population) globally. From 1990 to 2021, ASRs for prevalence, mortality and DALYs declined significantly (estimated annual percentage change range: −0.17% to −0.31%), while absolute case numbers increased by 85% due to population ageing. High-SDI regions exhibited the highest ASIR (28.49 per 100 000) and ASPR (364.24 per 100 000), while low-SDI regions showed underdiagnosis. Sex disparities were pronounced, with higher ASIR (16.13 vs 11.38) and ASPR (385.09 vs 241.64) in females. Projections to 2050 indicated continued ASR declines, yet rising absolute cases. Frontier analysis identified Serbia, Georgia and high-SDI countries (eg, the Netherlands) as having the largest gaps between actual and achievable disease burden.ConclusionsDespite declining ASRs, nrDMVD remains a critical global health challenge, driven by ageing populations and regional inequalities. Targeted interventions addressing gender disparities, ageing-related healthcare and resource allocation in low-SDI regions are urgently needed to mitigate future burdens.

BackgroundDown syndrome (DS), a neurodevelopmental disorder caused by a chromosomal abnormality, poses a major burden on global health. Analyzing the disease burden of DS, both in China and globally, is crucial for refining public health strategies.MethodsUsing the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, we examined age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate (ASDR) for DS in China and globally from 1990 to 2021. Joinpoint regression analysis was applied to identify temporal trends by calculating the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC). A bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was further employed to project prevalence changes from 2022 to 2036.ResultsFrom 1990 to 2021, China’s ASIR decreased from 1.68 per 100,000 to 1.18 per 100,000, compared to a global reduction from 1.27 per 100,000 to 0.97 per 100,000. Similarly, ASPR in China fell from 28.01 per 100,000 to 24.8 per 100,000, while globally it dropped from 27.98 per 100,000 to 21.07 per 100,000. Notably, China experienced steeper declines in ASMR (EAPC = −4.18%) and ASDR (EAPC = −3.87%) compared to the global averages (−0.44% and −0.69%, respectively). Joinpoint regression analysis shows that from 1990 to 2021, China’s ASIR (AAPC = −1.15, p < 0.001), ASPR (AAPC = −0.39, p < 0.001), ASDR (AAPC = −2.87, p < 0.001), and ASMR (AAPC = −3.08, p < 0.001) for DS all decreased. The SDI was negatively correlated with ASMR (R = −0.68, p < 0.001) and ASDR (R = −0.66, p < 0.001) but positively associated with ASIR (R = 0.55, p < 0.001) and ASPR (R = 0.80, p < 0.001). Projections from the BAPC model suggest that the ASPR of DS will continue to decline both in China and globally through 2036.ConclusionFrom 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of DS declined in China and globally. China’s decline in ASMR and ASDR outpaced the global level, though ASIR and ASPR remained higher. To further reduce DS burden, future efforts should prioritize early identification, counseling for informed decision-making, and equitable access to quality lifelong multidisciplinary support for affected individuals.