Global burden of endometriosis from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2050: a comprehensive analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021

Global Disease Burden From Acute Glomerulonephritis 1990–2019

Objective: To assess the trends in the burden of periodontal disease among individuals aged 60 years and above in China from 1990 to 2021, thereby providing a scientific foundation for the development of targeted prevention and control strategies for periodontal disease in the elderly. Methods: Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021), key indicators including incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rates were analyzed. Age-standardized rates were determined using the global standard population. Trends in the disease burden of periodontal disease among the elderly population in China from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed using Joinpoint regression analysis, and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was applied to forecast the disease burden from 2022 to 2036. Results: The annual average percentage changes (AAPC) in the number of incident cases, prevalent cases, and DALYs due to periodontal disease among individuals aged 60 years and above in China from 1990 to 2021 were 3.215% (95%CI: 3.149%-3.281%, P<0.05), 3.161% (95%CI:3.037%-3.286%, P<0.05), and 3.091%(95%CI:2.887%-3.296%, P<0.05), respectively. The results indicated that the average annual change trends of the number of incident cases, number of prevalent cases, and number of DALYs were real upward trends. Compared with other age groups, the number of incident cases, prevalent cases, and DALYs were the highest among the population aged 60-69 years. The AAPC for age-standardized incidence rate, prevalence, and DALY rates were -0.012 (95%CI:-0.031%-0.008%, P>0.05), 0.023% (95%CI:-0.070%-0.116%, P>0.05), and 0.013% (95%CI:-0.089%-0.115%, P>0.05), respectively. This indicated that the average annual change trends of the age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized prevalence rate, and age-standardized DALY rate might be caused by random fluctuations. Males exhibited higher prevalence and DALY rates than females across all age groups (P<0.05), whereas the incidence rates showed minimal differences between males and females across all age groups. The ARIMA forecast model indicated that the age-standardized incidence rate among males in the elderly population in China was relatively stable, while that among females showed a downward trend; the age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates followed a pattern of "decline-rise-decline". Conclusions: The disease burden of periodontal disease among Chinese adults aged 60 and above showed an overall upward trend from 1990 to 2021, with males and individuals aged 60-69 identified as high-risk groups. With the exacerbation of aging, the prevention and control situation remains severe, necessitating the implementation of gender-differentiated interventions to reduce the disease burden.

BackgroundMigraine is a common neurological disorder that has become an increasingly significant public health issue. This study aims to analyze the burden of migraine in China and globally from 1990 to 2021, exploring epidemiological trends and differences, thus providing scientific evidence for migraine prevention and control.MethodsBased on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, we assessed migraine burden in China and globally from 1990 to 2021 using indicators including incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized rates. The epidemiological trends were analyzed by calculating the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Health inequality analysis was conducted to explore the association between migraine burden and the sociodemographic index (SDI). Decomposition analysis quantified contributions of age structure, population growth, and epidemiological changes to migraine burden. Additionally, the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was applied to predict migraine burden in China and globally over the next 10 years.ResultsCompared with 1990, the number of migraine cases, prevalence, and DALYs in both China and globally significantly increased by 2021, though the global growth rate was considerably higher. Between 1990 and 2021, China experienced greater increases in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR), and age-standardized DALYs rates (ASDR) than the global average. Migraine burden was predominantly concentrated among adolescents and young adults, and females consistently exhibited a higher burden than males. Health inequality analysis revealed increasing disparity across 204 countries and regions, with a concentrated migraine burden in high socio-demographic index (SDI) countries, positively correlated with SDI. Decomposition analysis indicated that population growth was the primary driver of migraine burden changes in both China and globally. BAPC modeling predicted that the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates for migraine will continue to rise in China, whereas these rates are expected to slightly decline globally.ConclusionsMigraine burden is rising in both China and globally, driven by multiple factors such as age, gender, population growth, and SDI. There is an urgent need for precise interventions to reduce migraine's public health impact.

BackgroundThe burden of disease associated with gastrointestinal (GI) tract cancer in Southeast Asia has changed significantly in recent years. This study analyzes data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD)-2021 to examine trends in the burden of GI tract cancers in Southeast Asia from 1990 to 2021, identifies key risk factors, and predicts future trends.MethodFirst, this study obtained data on GI tract cancer by age, sex, etiology, incidence, prevalence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and risk factor from the GBD-2021 study focused on Southeast Asia data from 1990 to 2021. Secondly, the study also examined the temporal trend of subtype-specific GI tract cancer disease burden in Southeast Asia from 1990 to 2021 using linear regression modeling to calculate estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) values. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was also used to project the future disease burden from 2022 to 2050. Finally, risk factors for GI tract cancer of different etiologies were also analyzed.ResultsIn 2021, the number of deaths, DALYs, incidence, and prevalence cases of GI tract cancers in Southeast Asia were about 216,074, 5,955,050, 258,629, and 686,835, respectively, with colorectal cancer (CRC) associated with the most severe burden of disease. Between 1990 and 2021, the number of deaths and DALYs associated with CRC and pancreatic cancer (PC) and the corresponding age-standardized rates (ASRs) showed a significant upward trend, with the fastest growth being in PC. The total number of esophageal (EC), gastric (GC), liver (LC), and gallbladder and biliary tract (GBTC) cancer-related deaths and DALYs increased, but the age-standardized rates declined significantly. Predictive data suggest that age-standardized death rate (ASDR), ASR of DALYs, age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), and age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) will continue to decline in EC, GC, and LC, with the most pronounced declines, especially in GC. Overall, ASRs will continue to rise in the cases of CRC, PC, and GBTC cancers. ASDRs associated with GI tract cancers are greatest among those over 90 years of age. The burden of disease is significantly greater in men than in women, and this gender-induced difference is most pronounced in LC.ConclusionWhile the disease burden of various types of gastrointestinal (GI) cancers in Southeast Asia is experiencing both increases and declines, the overall burden remains significant, with the total number of cases expected to rise in the coming years. To alleviate the impact of severe GI cancers, public health professionals and policymakers must proactively develop and adapt prevention and control strategies, ensuring they are aligned with the shifting disease trends and the evolving risk factors associated with each type of GI tumor.

Urinary tract infections (UTIs) are a major public health concern, yet the burden in children remains poorly quantified. This study analyzed global, regional, and national trends in pediatric UTIs from 1990 to 2021. Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data, we assessed incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for individuals aged ≤ 14years. Age-standardized incidence (ASIR) and DALY rates (ASDR), along with estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC), were calculated by age, sex, and region. From 1990 to 2021, the incidence of urinary tract infections and the global burden of associated diseases remained consistently higher among pediatric populations compared to the general population. Globally, there were 50,173,655 UTI cases in 2021, marking a 10% increase from 45,485,831 in 1990. The age-standardized incidence rate per 100,000 population decreased from 2,615.40 in 1990 to 2,493.89 in 2021, with an estimated annual percentage change of -17% (95% confidence interval [CI] -0.33 to -0.01). Additionally, the number of disability-adjusted life years associated with UTIs in pediatric populations decreased by 33%, from 827,127 in 1990 to 554,185 in 2021. The age-standardized disability rate also decreased from 0.53 per 100,000 in 1990 to 0.30 per 100,000 in 2021, with an EAPC of -1.36 (95% CI -1.51 to -1.21). The highest burden was in low-middle SDI regions, especially South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Despite a modest decline in age-standardized rates, the absolute burden of pediatric UTIs increased from 1990 to 2021. Disparities across SDI regions highlight the need for targeted, age- and region-specific public health strategies to reduce the global impact of pediatric UTIs.

Our aim was to explore the disease burden caused by gallbladder and biliary tract cancer globally, regionally, and nationally, by age and sex. The absolute number of cases and age-standardized rates (ASR) of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to gallbladder and biliary tract cancer were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. We estimated the trends in disease burden by calculating the percentage change in the absolute number of cases and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in ASR, by social development index (SDI), region, nation, sex, and age. From 1990 to 2019, the number of incident cases, prevalent cases, deaths, and DALYs worldwide significantly increased by 1.85-fold, 1.92-fold, 1.82-fold, and 1.68-fold, respectively. However, the age-standardized rates of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs tend to decrease globally over time. Nevertheless, heterogeneous disease burden patterns exist between geographic regions due to different geographical risk factors, distinct epidemiologically predominant gallbladder and biliary tract cancer subtypes, and potential genetic predispositions or ethnicity. Additionally, socioeconomic status mediates the regional variation in disease burden, with increasing SDI or HDI scores associated with downward trends in the age-standardized rates of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs. Older individuals and females are at higher risk of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer, but the increasing burden of early-onset gallbladder and biliary tract cancer is a cause for concern, especially for those living in lower SDI areas and males. High BMI is the primary risk factors underlying gallbladder and biliary tract cancer, accounted for 15.2% of deaths and 15.7% DALYs globally in 2019. Our study comprehensively elucidated the distribution and dynamic trends of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer burden over the past three decades, from multiple dimensions. These findings emphasize the importance of promoting a healthy lifestyle as a population-level cancer prevention strategy and tailoring cancer control actions based on localized risk factors and the epidemic profiles of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer by anatomical subtype.

BackgroundBipolar disorder (BD) is a severe mental illness characterized by alternating episodes of mania and depression. Among women of reproductive age (15–49 years), the risk of onset is higher and clinical manifestations are more complex due to the combined influence of hormonal fluctuations, reproductive pressures, and conflicts in social roles. Mental health problems in this population not only significantly impair quality of life but also place a sustained burden on family stability and public health systems. Although awareness of BD has been increasing, studies specifically focusing on the disease burden among women of reproductive age remain limited, particularly lacking systematic analyses based on the latest Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data.MethodsThis study was based on data from the GBD 2021 and systematically analyzed the incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of BD among women aged 15–49 at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2021. We calculated age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), prevalence rate (ASPR), and DALYs rate (ASDR), along with the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) for each metric. In addition, cross-national health inequality was assessed using the slope index of inequality (SII) and the concentration index (CII). Future trends in the disease burden were projected to 2041 using a Bayesian age–period–cohort (BAPC) model.ResultsFrom 1990 to 2021, the overall burden of BD among women aged 15–49 years has continued to rise globally. In 2021, the numbers of new cases, prevalent cases, and DALYs were all significantly higher than in 1990. Although the ASIR showed a slight decline (EAPC = −0.07; 95% CI: −0.08 to −0.05), the ASPR and ASDR continued to increase, with EAPC of 0.06 (95% CI: 0.04–0.07) and 0.05 (95% CI: 0.04–0.07), respectively. High-SDI regions ranked highest across all three metrics, while middle-high SDI regions had the lowest ASIR and ASPR, and middle-low SDI regions had the lowest ASDR. Regionally, South Asia bore the heaviest absolute burden in terms of incident cases, prevalence, and DALYs, whereas Oceania had the lightest burden. In terms of standardized rates, Tropical Latin America had the highest ASIR, while Australasia recorded the highest ASPR and ASDR; East Asia had the lowest values across all three indicators. At the national level in 2021, New Zealand reported the highest ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR globally; China had the lowest ASIR, and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea had the lowest ASPR and ASDR. The burden of BD was positively correlated with the level of socio-demographic development, showing a mild positive correlation between ASIR and SDI, and a stronger correlation for ASPR and ASDR. Age-wise, all age groups saw increases in incident cases, prevalence, and DALYs compared to 1990, with the 35–39 age group showing the greatest rise in incidence, and the 45–49 group the largest increase in prevalence and DALYs. In 2021, the ASIR peaked in the 15–19 age group, while ASPR and ASDR were highest in the 25–29 age group. Health inequality analysis indicated persistent disparities in BD burden between high- and low-SDI countries, with little improvement over the past three decades. Projections using the BAPC model suggest that ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR may slightly decline by 2041, but the overall disease burden is expected to remain high.ConclusionFrom 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of BD among women of reproductive age has continued to rise globally, exhibiting significant regional, national, and socioeconomic disparities. This highlights the uneven development of mental health systems across different settings. Countries should develop more targeted mental health intervention strategies based on their stage of development. It is recommended to strengthen early screening, standardized diagnosis, and long-term comprehensive management for women of reproductive age, in order to effectively reduce the disease burden and improve overall mental health in this population.

BackgroundMigraine is a common disabling neurological disorder that affects the quality of human daily life and mental health, potentially leading to disability and imposing a substantial disease burden. There is currently a lack of literature analysis on the global burden and changing trends of migraines. Therefore, this study is of great significance for the development of effective management and prevention strategies for migraine by analyzing the global burden of migraine and its changing trends.MethodsWe obtained data on the incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of migraine by region and year from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021). The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to evaluate the time trend of disease burden, and factors that may affect the EAPC were analyzed. The burden of migraine was analyzed based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Frontier analysis was used to visually demonstrate the burden of development levels in various regions, and the trends of migraine incidence, prevalence, and DALYs over the next decade were predicted.ResultsIn 2021, the global number of prevalent cases, incident cases, and DALYs for migraine were 1.158 billion, 90.18 million, and 43.38 million, compared with 1990, the percentage changes were 58, 42, and 58%, respectively. In 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) of migraine were the highest in areas with high SDI. Its prevalence, incidence, and DALYs were 15365.1, 1222.5, and 573.6 per 100,000 people. From 1990 to 2021, the ASDR showed an upward trend globally and in all regions, among which ASIR and ASPR in global, China, East Asia, high, high-middle SDI regions were on the rise, while they showed a downward trend in low, low-middle SDI regions. Frontier analysis showed that areas with high SDI generally had greater potential for improvement. We used a predictive model to estimate that ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR of migraine were all on the rise.ConclusionFrom 1990 to 2021, the global burden of migraine has increased significantly, especially in middle SDI region. This study highlights the importance of tailored interventions aimed at addressing migraine and thus contributing to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals set by the World Health Organization.

In the context of the population growing and aging worldwide, the incidence of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease increased rapidly. This study aimed to describe the burden of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease, providing an up-to-date and comprehensive analysis on the global and regional levels and time trends from 1900 to 2019. The Global Burden of Disease 2019 was used to obtain data for this analysis. Non-rheumatic valvular heart disease in the Global Burden of Disease study includes both non-rheumatic calcific aortic valve disease and non-rheumatic degenerative mitral valve disease. The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life year in 204 countries from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed by location, year, sex, age, and socio-demographic index. Estimated annual percentage change was calculated to represent the temporal trends from 1990 to 2019. Spearman's rank order correlation was used to determine the correlation between socio-demographic index and the incidence and burden of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease. Globally, there were 1.65 million (95% uncertainty interval, 1.56-1.76 million) incident cases, 0.16 million (95% uncertainty interval, 0.14-0.18 million) death cases, and 2.79 million (95% uncertainty interval, 2.52-3.31 million) disability-adjusted life years of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease. Compared with 1990, the number of incident cases, death cases, and disability-adjusted life years in 2019 increased by 104.58%, 210.60%, and 167.62%, respectively, the age-standardized incidence rate (estimated annual percentage change, 0.39; 95% confidence interval, 0.29 to 0.49) increased due to population growth, and the age-standardized death rates (estimated annual percentage change, -0.32; 95% confidence interval, -0.39 to -0.25) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate (estimated annual percentage change, -0.81; 95% confidence interval, -0.87 to -0.74) decreased during this period. Regarding the socio-demographic index, the highest age-standardized incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life year rates of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease were found in high-socio-demographic index countries in 2019. Meantime, the age-standardized incidence rate remained increased from 1990 to 2019, while significant decreases were found in the age-standardized death rate and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate. Females have higher age-standardized incidence rate, while higher age-standardized death rate and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate belong to males globally during the period of 1990-2019. Increasing trends were observed for both incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life year rates with age. High systolic blood pressure was the leading cause for non-rheumatic valvular heart disease across all ages. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease remained increased, while age-standardized death rate and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate decreased, resulting from the growing population worldwide and improving medical resources. The aged, who has high systolic blood pressure and diet high in sodium, should pay more attention to, especially in high-socio-demographic index regions. With the population aging, the number of patients who require heart valve replacement is estimated to increase significantly in the future. Effective measures are warranted to control and treat the incidence and burden of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease.

Malignant reproductive system tumors significantly impact the physical and mental health of adolescent and young adult males (AYAMs, aged 15–49 years), particularly their fertility. In recent years, the incidence of testicular and prostate cancer in this population has risen, while early diagnosis and treatment remain challenging. However, global epidemiological data on AYAMs are limited. This study aims to evaluate global trends in the incidence and burden of testicular and prostate cancers among AYAMs from 1990 to 2021, using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, to address the research gap and inform public health strategies. We extracted data on the incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for testicular and prostate cancer in adolescents and young adult males (AYAMs) aged 15–49 years from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, covering 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. As the GBD 2021 database only includes data for testicular cancer (ICD-10 code C62) and prostate cancer (ICD-10 code C61), other male reproductive system cancers, such as penile and epididymal cancer, were excluded. To analyze temporal trends, we applied the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) method using linear regression models to calculate age-standardized incidence and DALY rates. Additionally, Spearman’s rank correlation was used to assess the relationship between age-standardized rates and the Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) for each country and region in 2021. In 2021, a total of 94,229 new cases of male reproductive system cancers were reported globally among AYAMs. From 1990 to 2021, the global age-standardized incidence rate significantly increased (EAPC = 1.38), while the age-standardized DALY rate exhibited a downward trend (EAPC = -0.26). Both testicular cancer and prostate cancer showed a consistent increase in age-standardized incidence rates, while their age-standardized DALY rates declined. Testicular cancer represented a significantly higher proportion of male reproductive system cancers in AYAMs globally compared to prostate cancer, with regional variations in the cancer burden. Additionally, the age-standardized incidence rates of both testicular and prostate cancers were positively correlated with the SDI, while the age-standardized DALY rate displayed a hill-shaped relationship with SDI. Over the past three decades, the incidence of testicular and prostate cancers among adolescents and young adult males (AYAMs) has steadily increased, accompanied by significant regional disparities in DALYs. To reduce the global burden of these cancers, particularly for AYAMs, targeted prevention strategies are crucial. These should include early screening, timely treatment, and public health education tailored to the unique needs of young males. In low- and middle-income countries, efforts should focus on improving health management, promoting physical activity, fostering healthy dietary habits, and enhancing access to early cancer screening for AYAMs. Early detection and intervention are essential for improving survival rates and minimizing the long-term effects of cancer, such as fertility issues and psychological impacts. Collaboration between governments, public health organizations, and social institutions is critical for advancing cancer prevention and control, with a focus on the specific health needs of AYAMs.

Prostate cancer (PC) remains a major global health concern, with significant geographic and ethnic disparities in incidence and mortality. While the widespread use of prostate-specific antigen screening has improved early detection, ongoing debates regarding overdiagnosis and overtreatment raise concerns about its clinical utility and cost-effectiveness. Previous studies have examined regional variations in disease burden, yet gaps persist in understanding long-term epidemiological trends and the influence of sociodemographic factors. A standardized, comprehensive analysis is essential to guide evidence-based prevention and control strategies. This study investigated PC incidence, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) between 1990 and 2021, providing a detailed assessment of its global burden. By analyzing temporal and regional trends, this study seeks to inform targeted prevention efforts and optimize healthcare resource allocation. Data were analyzed for annual incident cases, deaths, prevalence, DALYs, age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs), age-standardized death rates (ASDRs), and age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPRs) for PC from 1990 to 2021, using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021. Temporal trends were assessed by calculating percentage changes in incident cases, deaths, and DALYs, along with estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) in ASIR, ASDR, ASPR, and DALYs. Pearson correlation analyses were conducted to evaluate the relationship between EAPCs and the socio-demographic index (SDI). Joinpoint regression was applied to identify significant shifts in these metrics over time. The analysis reveals a 161.53% increase in global PC incidence and a 0.568% rise in prevalence, while mortality rates have declined by 0.83%. Regional variations are evident, with Eastern Europe and South Asia experiencing a higher burden of disease. Age distribution analysis shows that PC predominantly affects older populations, particularly individuals aged 70 years and above. SDI analysis indicates a positive correlation between SDI and PC prevalence, while the association with DALYs is comparatively weaker. Additionally, high-income regions such as Bermuda, Antigua, and Barbuda exhibit significant disparities in disease burden. PC remains a growing global burden with significant regional and age-related disparities. While higher SDI regions show increased prevalence, the weaker correlation with DALYs suggests that healthcare access alone does not fully alleviate disease burden. These findings emphasize the need for targeted strategies that integrate early detection with equitable treatment and long-term management to reduce disparities and improve outcomes.

Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease that causes a significant global burden. The aim of this study was to report the latest estimates of the global, regional, and national schistosomiasis disease burden and forecast changes in schistosomiasis-related disease burden. This work was based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. We analyzed the schistosomiasis data by sex, age in years, and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) region and country, using Age-Standardized Rates (ASR) for comparisons among different groups. The Estimated Annual Percent Changes (EAPC) analysis was used to evaluate the temporal trend of the disease burden, and the Differential Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing (ES) models were used to predict the disease burden from 2022 to 2046. In the GBD 2021 study, it was reported that compared to 1990, the number of deaths has decreased by 74,350, the prevalence number has increased by 1,482,260, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) have decreased by 1,770,436. Additionally, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) has decreased by 0.31 per 100,000 people, with an EAPC of -0.353 (95% CI: -0.361 to -0.344). Similarly, the age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) has decreased by 15.45 per 100,000 people (EAPC: -1.56, 95% CI: -1.78 to -1.34), and the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) has decreased by 559.64 per 100,000 people (EAPC: -0.63, 95% CI: -0.95 to -0.31). The regions and countries with the highest disease burden are mostly concentrated in Africa. Despite a general decline in global schistosomiasis burden indicators, the burden of disease has actually increased in high SDI areas. The ARIMA and ES models forecast results show that female mortality and ASMR will decline in the next 25 years, while male mortality and ASMR will remain stable, and other disease indicators will continue to decline. The global schistosomiasis burden has significantly decreased over the past 30 years, but it remains high in African regions and countries, as well as low-SDI areas. Effective cooperation among countries should be strengthened to improve the disease burden in high-burden areas and countries.

BackgroundNeuroblastoma and other Peripheral Nervous Cell Tumors (NPNTs) contribute substantially to global pediatric cancer morbidity and mortality, particularly among children under five. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the global burden of NPNTs, examining long-term trends from 1990 to 2021 and projecting future patterns through 2050, based on data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021.MethodsWe analyzed mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2021 using GBD data. Trends were assessed via age-standardized rates (ASRs) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Predictive models (Exponential Smoothing and ARIMA) projected future burden through 2050. Analyses were stratified by age, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI) regions.ResultsIn 2021, NPNTs resulted in 5,194 deaths (95% UI: 4,295–5,932) and 285,479 DALYs (95% UI: 227,709–341,110) globally. Children under five years accounted for 1,355 deaths (26.1% of total) and 126,215 DALYs (44.2% of total), with males exhibiting higher mortality rates (ASR: 0.08 vs. 0.06 per 100,000 in females). Middle-SDI regions experienced the highest number of deaths (1,503) and DALYs (79,412), while high-SDI regions had the highest age-standardized death rate (0.09 per 100,000) and DALYs rate (5.25 per 100,000). From 1990 to 2021, population growth drove 90.2% of DALYs increases, while aging offset 13.0% of the rise. Projections diverged: ES models predicted stable trends, whereas ARIMA forecasted a 22.3% increase in male DALYs by 2050 (from 165,574 to 226,533).ConclusionsThe escalating burden of NPNTs is strongly tied to demographic expansion and inequitable healthcare access. Prioritizing early diagnosis in high-burden regions (e.g., middle/low-SDI settings) and addressing sex-specific disparities are imperative. These findings call for data-driven policies to mitigate future disease burden through targeted resource allocation and surveillance strengthening.

Global burden of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease in older adults (60-89 years old), 1990-2019: systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background:To date, no study has evaluated trends in the burden of alcohol-induced cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2019 study. Herein, we report on the global burden of alcohol-induced cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases in terms of age, sex, and sociodemographic index (SDI) from 1990 to 2019, based on analysis of GBD 2019 data.Methods:The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to determine the trends in the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for alcohol-induced cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases.Results:From 1990 to 2019, the global age-standardized incidence rate showed an upward trend (EAPC = 0.10), whereas the global age-standardized mortality rate and DALYs showed a downward trend (EAPC = − 0.88 and − 0.89, respectively). Low-(187.08 in 2019) and low-middle (178.11 in 2019)SDI regions had much higher age-standardized DALYs. Eastern Europe saw the largest increases in the age-standardized mortality rate and DALYs. Lithuania had the largest increase in mortalities caused by alcohol-induced cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases(EAPC = 4.61). The age-standardized mortality rates and DALYs were higher in men than in women.Conclusion:From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate of alcohol-induced cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases increased globally; however, both the age-standardized mortality rate and DALYs caused by alcohol-induced cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases showed decreasing trends. Future studies should devise preventive strategies for low and low-middle SDI regions, Eastern Europe, Lithuania, and other high-risk regions.