Abstract
Wildfire occurrence and intensity have increased over the last few decades and, at times, have been national news. Wildfire occurrence is somewhat predictable based on physical factors like meteorological conditions, fuel loads, and vegetation dynamics. Socioeconomic factors have been not been widely used in wildfire occurrence models. We used a geospatial (or geographical information system) analysis approach to identify socioeconomic variables that contribute to wildfire occurrence. Key variables considered were population change, population density, poverty rate, educational level, geographic mobility, and road density (transportation network). Hot spot analysis was the primary research tool. Wildfire occurrence seemed to be positively related to low population densities, low levels of population change, high poverty rate, low educational attainment level, and low road density. Obviously, some of these variables are correlated and this is a complex problem. However, socioeconomic variables appeared to contribute to wildfire occurrence and should be considered in development of wildfire occurrence forecasting models.
Highlights
Wildfires occurrences and intensity have increased dramatically over the last few decades [1].Major wildfires became headline news across the United States due to the devastating threats posed to human life, homes, buildings, timber, and other natural resources
If wildfire occurrence were related to agricultural land, would it result from the location and type of land used for farming, or the type of people involved in the farming industry? The wildfire occurrence points in Figure 3 are so dense as to obscure the agricultural land base that they cover
The large area of agricultural land that covers the lower part of the state is the most likely area within South Carolina to experience severe wildfire occurrences
Summary
Wildfires occurrences and intensity have increased dramatically over the last few decades [1].Major wildfires became headline news across the United States due to the devastating threats posed to human life, homes, buildings, timber, and other natural resources. Wildfire occurrence is somewhat predictable and can be influenced by many factors, such as meteorological conditions, fuel loads, topography, and vegetation dynamics [2]. While these factors have been shown to be accurate predictors of wildfire, increasing human population densities could be a contributing factor to wildfire occurrence [3]. From 2000 to 2010 South Carolina had a 15.3 percent increase in human population; the state’s population is approaching five million people [5] This population increase results in urban and suburban development becoming more common on undeveloped lands. These lands hold the greatest risk for wildfire. This population increase on recently undeveloped lands results in an equal increase in the number of homes and buildings potentially threatened by wildfire [4]
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