Geopolitics, Turkey’s EU accession course and Cyprus: power balances and ‘Soft Power’ calculations

Abstract

Turkey seems to have injected sufficient ‘soft power’ calculations in its foreign policy, presumably aiming at attraction and persuasion rather than coercion. Yet military power combined with a sustained economic growth are arguably the main drivers of its newly assertive foreign policy. This analysis explores Turkey’s regional ambitions, including its potential leverage on conflict resolution, notably in Cyprus, that may conceivably assume significant geopolitical implications on power balances in the region. It is posited that to be successful, Ankara’s new posture necessitates a priori the resolution of several bilateral disputes, ranging from Armenia to the Aegean and troop withdrawal from Cyprus. These steps could be taken irrespective of Ankara’s European Union accession process, assuming that the new policy is designed to project a credible image of a rising regional power.