Abstract
If future net-zero emissions energy systems rely heavily on solar and wind resources, spatial and temporal mismatches between resource availability and electricity demand may challenge system reliability. Using 39 years of hourly reanalysis data (1980–2018), we analyze the ability of solar and wind resources to meet electricity demand in 42 countries, varying the hypothetical scale and mix of renewable generation as well as energy storage capacity. Assuming perfect transmission and annual generation equal to annual demand, but no energy storage, we find the most reliable renewable electricity systems are wind-heavy and satisfy countries’ electricity demand in 72–91% of hours (83–94% by adding 12 h of storage). Yet even in systems which meet >90% of demand, hundreds of hours of unmet demand may occur annually. Our analysis helps quantify the power, energy, and utilization rates of additional energy storage, demand management, or curtailment, as well as the benefits of regional aggregation.
Highlights
If future net-zero emissions energy systems rely heavily on solar and wind resources, spatial and temporal mismatches between resource availability and electricity demand may challenge system reliability
Electricity demand profiles for each country are determined by factors such as economic conditions, prevailing weather conditions and consumer usage patterns[24]
Our results suggest that, neglecting transmission constraints, with systems sized to meet time-integrated annual electricity demand, major countries’ solar and wind resources could meet at least 72%
Summary
If future net-zero emissions energy systems rely heavily on solar and wind resources, spatial and temporal mismatches between resource availability and electricity demand may challenge system reliability. Using 39 years of hourly reanalysis data (1980–2018), we analyze the ability of solar and wind resources to meet electricity demand in 42 countries, varying the hypothetical scale and mix of renewable generation as well as energy storage capacity. We assess spatial and temporal gaps between electricity demand and the availability of solar and wind resources, which represent gaps that must be filled by other nonemitting generation technologies or operating strategies in reliable electricity systems based on zero-carbon sources. Our results will continue to be informative even as technological and socio-political feasibility evolves
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