Geographical analysis of fluoride and nitrate and its probabilistic health risk assessment utilizing Monte Carlo simulation and GIS in potable water in rural areas of Mathura region, Uttar Pradesh, northern India

Abstract

Human health is being increasingly exposed to fluoride and nitrate ingestion globally due to anthropogenic alternations in groundwater resources. In the present research work, a hazard quotient (HQ), Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), and geographic information systems (GIS) have been used to estimate the non-carcinogenic health risk of nitrate and fluoride in vulnerable adults, teenagers, and children living in far-flung areas of Uttar Pradesh, Northern India. About 110 samples from some nearby populations were collected and analyzed for nitrates by ion chromatography and fluoride by a fluoride-selective electrode. The results indicated that the concentrations of fluoride and nitrate in the sampling areas ranged from 0.21 to 1.71 mg/L and 0.4–183.54 mg/L, respectively, with mean concentrations of about 1.20 mg/L and 51.52 mg/L for fluoride and nitrate, respectively. The results indicated that 27.27 % of the fluoride samples (27 out of 110) and 45.45 % of the nitrate samples (44 out of 110) were above the standard limits set by WHO. The calculated average HQ values fluoride and Nitrate for children, teenagers and adults were 1.88, 0.98, 0.90 and 3.02, 1.57, 1.45 respectively The 95th percentile HQ values for fluoride were 2.87 for children and 1.03 for adults, while those for nitrate were 4.10 for children and 1.98 for adults. Results of the health risk assessment show that there is a high potential for both non-carcinogenic and cancer risks from fluoride and nitrate through the consumption of groundwater. The Monte Carlo simulation showed the uncertainties and increased risks for children; therefore, one can infer that rural groundwater of the Mathura region, Uttar Pradesh, India, must be treated to make it potable for consumption.