Abstract
This study analyzes the spatial risk distribution of West Nile virus (WNv) in humans and birds across southern Ontario for 2006. The relationship between bird and human risk is also investigated. Surveillance data was obtained for the number of human WNv cases and the fraction of dead birds testing positive in each public health unit. The presence of disease clustering in humans and birds was investigated using a spatial scan test. Choropleth risk maps of regional empirical Bayesian smoothed estimates were created to investigate the spatial distribution of WNv in humans and birds. Isopleth risk maps were created through kriging of smoothed estimates, and were used to identify high-risk areas as well as investigate the relationship between human and bird risk. One disease cluster was found in both humans and birds. The human disease cluster was not significant when the bird data was used as a covariate in the analysis. The choropleth and isopleth maps identified the southern portion of southern Ontario to be the highest risk area for both humans and birds. This study indicates that bird outbreaks are a potential indicator for an increase in human risk. As well, WNv risk is greatest in the southern portion of southern Ontario and is geographically spreading in comparison to previous years.
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