Abstract
Climate change is predicted to impact species’ genetic diversity and distribution. We used Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton, an economically important species distributed in the Sudano-Sahelian savannah belt of West Africa, to investigate the impact of climate change on intraspecific genetic diversity and distribution. We used ten nuclear and two plastid microsatellite markers to assess genetic variation, population structure and differentiation across thirteen sites in West Africa. We projected suitable range, and potential impact of climate change on genetic diversity using a maximum entropy approach, under four different climate change scenarios. We found higher genetic and haplotype diversity at both nuclear and plastid markers than previously reported. Genetic differentiation was strong for chloroplast and moderate for the nuclear genome. Both genomes indicated three spatially structured genetic groups. The distribution of Senegalia senegal is strongly correlated with extractable nitrogen, coarse fragments, soil organic carbon stock, precipitation of warmest and coldest quarter and mean temperature of driest quarter. We predicted 40.96 to 6.34 per cent of the current distribution to favourably support the species’ ecological requirements under future climate scenarios. Our results suggest that climate change is going to affect the population genetic structure of Senegalia senegal, and that patterns of genetic diversity are going to influence the species’ adaptive response to climate change. Our study contributes to the growing evidence predicting the loss of economically relevant plants in West Africa in the next decades due to climate change.
Highlights
Biodiversity is crucial to human well-being as it provides fundamental ecosystem services
We address the following questions: 1) Is the genetic diversity in the West African Sudano-Sahelian zone (SSZ) as low as previously stated for the region? 2) How is genetic diversity structured within the West African SSZ? 3) How would future climate impact the distribution of S. senegal in the West African SSZ? We discuss the potential impact of climate driven range changes of S. senegal in the SSZ of West Africa on extant genetic variation
Significant deviations from Hardy– Weinberg equilibrium (HWE) were detected at seven sites with heterozygote deficiency in one site (HAD) and heterozygote excess in six sites (Table 2) while measures of inbreeding coefficient (Fis) were generally negative or very low ranging from -0.28 to 0.12
Summary
Biodiversity is crucial to human well-being as it provides fundamental ecosystem services. Biodiversity is under threat by human population growth, increased land use, and CO2 emissions, which are all direct or indirect drivers of climate change [1,2,3]. Within subSaharan Africa lies the so-called arid and semi-arid land traversing the savannah belts of the region and making up the Sudano-Sahelian zone (SSZ) [6]. This region is socio-economically and ecologically important, but at the same time threatened by climate change, land degradation due to unsustainable agriculture, deforestation, and overgrazing [7]
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