Generation and Transmission Expansion Planning Towards a 100% Renewable Future

Abstract

This paper proposes a novel modeling framework and decomposition-based solution strategy combining stochastic programming (SP) and robust optimization (RO) to deal with multiplex uncertainties in coordinated mid- and long-term power system planning. The problem is formulated as a multi-year generation and transmission planning problem from an independent system operator (ISO)’s perspective to minimize both expansion and operational costs under binary and continuous uncertainties, <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><tex-math notation="LaTeX">${\bf i.e.}$</tex-math></inline-formula> , system component contingency and load/generation variation. N- <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"><tex-math notation="LaTeX">$\bf {k}$</tex-math></inline-formula> contingencies are captured in RO using the reformulated contingency criteria, while the load/generation uncertainty is considered in SP embedded with RO using operating scenarios generated from the historical data with spatiotemporal correlations. The original hybrid model is highly intractable, but the intractability can be relieved by the proposed decomposition strategy based on the column-and-constraint generation and L-shaped algorithms. We apply our model to perform long-term system planning under extremely high renewable penetration and investigate the case of 100% renewables in long-term planning. Numerical experiments on multi-scale test systems verify the efficacy of the proposed approach.