Abstract
In the provision of urban residential areas, private land developers play critical roles in nearly all stages of the land development process. Despite their important role little is known about how the spatial decisions of individual developers collectively influence urban growth. This paper employs an agent-based modelling approach to capture the spatial decisions of private land developers in shaping new urban forms. By drawing on microeconomic theory, the model simulates urban growth in the Jakarta Metropolitan Area, Indonesia, under different scenarios that reflect the decision behaviours of different types of developers. Results reveal that larger developers favour sites that are more proximate to the city centre whilst smaller developers prefer sites that are located further away from the city, that drive a more sprawled urban form. Our findings show that new urban areas are generated by different developers through different processes. The profit maximisation behaviour by developers with large capital reserves is more predictable than those with small capital funds. The imbalance in capital holdings by different types of developers interacts with one another to exert adverse impacts on the urban development process. Our study provides supporting evidence highlighting the need for urban policy to regulate urban expansion and achieve more sustainable urban development outcomes in a developing world context.
Highlights
Urban development, or the conversion of land from nonurban to urban, is contingent on the decisions of multiple actors [1]
In order to understand the heterogeneous role played by developers in the urban development process coupled with the consequences of this heterogeneity for urban planning, this study adopts an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach to explore the multifaceted characteristics of land developers and how their spatial decision behaviours affect the spatial form of the urban footprint
The new urban areas created by small developers (Scenario 1) appear in areas 25 km away from Jakarta’s CBD (Figure 4a) while developments by medium and large developers are concentrated around the 25 km radius line (Figure 4b,c)
Summary
The conversion of land from nonurban to urban, is contingent on the decisions of multiple actors [1]. Among the urban development actors, private land developers play a critical role driving the process of urban growth [1,2,3]. Their decisions to convert undeveloped rural land into urban use is a central process that drives the expansion of urban footprint [2,4]. In order to understand the heterogeneous role played by developers in the urban development process coupled with the consequences of this heterogeneity for urban planning, this study adopts an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach to explore the multifaceted characteristics of land developers and how their spatial decision behaviours affect the spatial form of the urban footprint
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