Gaussian Mixture Based Uncertainty Modeling to Optimize Energy Management of Heterogeneous Building Neighborhoods: A Case Study of a Dutch University Medical Campus

Abstract

To realize the goals of energy transition, becoming energy-neutral at the neighborhood level by sharing energy among clusters of heterogeneous buildings with local distributed energy resources (DERs), will play a vital role. However, uncertainties related to demand and renewable sources pose a major operational challenge to schedule the DERs. In this paper, a scenario-based mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model is proposed for an energy management system (EMS) of a local energy community. The proposed EMS executes a stochastic day-ahead scheduling operation of multi-energy systems (MES). A set of scenarios are generated with the Gaussian mixture model (GMM) to consider uncertainties of demand and renewable sources. Moreover, Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) are performed to assess the effectiveness of the proposed EMS compared to the deterministic one. The proposed method is validated by using a real-world case study of a generic Dutch university medical campus in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Two types of analysis are performed: one-day analysis and seasonal analysis. In both cases, in an average, the stochastic process outperforms the deterministic process considerably, in terms of cost, CO2 emission, imported electricity from grid and usage of local energy resources.