Gaming and Modeling Combat

Abstract

This chapter discusses wargaming, combat modeling, and simulation, as well as force sizing and other issues related to military operations and warfighting scenarios. It argues that the ultimate purpose of wargaming and modeling is to help a country like the United States decide what kind of military, and military budget, it needs — as well as when and how to decide to use force. The chapter examines simple models of combat, starting with Lanchester equations, derived by a British engineer early in the twentieth century. However, they do not account well for most types of modern warfare, so the chapter shifts to other models and emphasizes an approach modified from that of the late Trevor Dupuy, focused on air-ground combat. The chapter also studies naval combat, including amphibious assault, blockade operations, and nuclear exchange calculations. Ultimately, it concludes with a framework for analyzing progress, or the lack thereof, in counterinsurgency operations like those in Iraq and Afghanistan.