Abstract
More than 110 countries, including 500 cities worldwide, have set the goal of reaching carbon neutrality. Heating contributes to most of the residential energy consumption and carbon emissions. The green energy transition of fossil-based heating systems is needed to reach the emission goals. However, heating systems vary in energy source, heating technology, equipment location, and these complexities make it challenging for households to compare heating systems and make decisions. Hence, a decision support tool that provides a generalized ranking of individual heating alternatives is proposed for households as decision makers to identify the optimal choice. This paper presents an analysis of 13 heating alternatives and 19 quantitative criteria in technological, environmental, and financial aspects, combines ideal solution-based multi-criteria decision making with 6 weighting methods and 4 normalization methods, and introduces ensemble learning with a fuzzy membership function derived from Cauchy distribution to finalize the ultimate ranking. The robustness of the proposed method is verified by three sensitive analyses from different aspects. Air-to-water heat pump, solar heating and direct district heating are the top three rankings in the final result under Danish national average data. A framework is designed to guide decision makers to apply this ranking guideline with their practical, feasible situations.
Highlights
Based on previous analysis and comparison between Vise Kriterijumska Optimizacija Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) and TOPSIS methods [27,36], this paper introduced a framework that combines both methods with multiple weighting and normalization methods to generate comprehensive rankings for heat alternatives decision support, followed by ensemble learning with fuzzy membership function to generate a final ranking
The ensemble learning methodology is widely used in machine learning, but it is rarely found in multi-criteria decision making (MCDM)
While facing the challenge of self-salvation through carbon neutrality, this research contributes to helping the heating energy transition in Denmark and globally
Summary
Climate change is currently considered one of the most significant global crises. Limiting global warming to 1.5 ◦C requires rapid and deep transitions in energy, land, and urban infrastructures, as well as industrial systems [1]. More than 110 countries, including 500 cities worldwide, have set the goal of reaching carbon neutrality [2]. 78% of European cities have greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation targets [3]. Challenges have been raised in the long-term planning and decision making of the energy transition for municipalities in order to reach the emission goals [4]. In the Danish context of our research, the municipality has a key role in the national transition to a fossil-free society because strategic energy planning in Denmark is clearly defined as a responsibility of the municipalities
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
