Future UV radiation in Central Europe modelled from ozone scenarios

Abstract

Photobiologically and photochemically relevant UV radiation for the time around the years 2015 and 2050 is estimated by radiative transfer calculations using variable ozone content based on model simulations. The future cloud conditions are assumed unchanged. Assuming various emission scenarios of chlorfluorohydrocarbons (CFCs) and other trace gases, and taking into account future temperature development and changing atmospheric dynamic conditions, ozone values are simulated. On the basis of these data, three different scenarios of the future total ozone content over Central Europe are analysed, which represent from current knowledge, probable as well as optimistic (high ozone and low UV irradiance) and pessimistic (low ozone and high UV irradiance) conditions. According to these scenarios the future development of the UV radiation is expected not to follow the increasing trend of UV irradiation observed during the last three decades. The predicted changes are highly variable with season. During late winter and spring, the enhanced recent UV values will persist for the next decades. Till 2015 a further slight increase is predicted for springtime. In contrast, during summer and fall, the UV level is assumed to remain on the recent level. For 2050 a decrease to values close to that of an anthropogeneous nearly undisturbed ozone chemistry, as it was found around 1970, is predicted. In addition to average long-time variations of the UV irradiance, short-time increase may occur due to ozone minihole events or due to a large volcanic eruption. The latter can produce a marked increase in UV radiation for several months. During ozone minihole events, with maximum occurrence in spring, UV irradiance is typically increased for a few days. Such episodes must be taken into account additionally to the average UV development. They will occur also in the future and result in UV radiation increases against undisturbed conditions, which are similar to present minihole events. These differences are much larger than the average changes predicted for future ozone development.