Future Prospects for Ground-based Gravitational-wave Detectors: The Galactic Double Neutron Star Merger Rate Revisited

Abstract

Abstract We present the Galactic merger rate for double neutron star (DNS) binaries using an observed sample of eight DNS systems merging within a Hubble time. This sample includes the recently discovered, highly relativistic DNS systems J1757−1854 and J1946+2052, and is approximately three times the sample size used in previous estimates of the Galactic merger rate by Kim et al. Using this sample, we calculate the vertical scale height for DNS systems in the Galaxy to be z 0 = 0.4 ± 0.1 kpc. We calculate a Galactic DNS merger rate of Myr−1 at the 90% confidence level. The corresponding DNS merger detection rate for Advanced LIGO (Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory) is , where D r is the range distance. Using this merger detection rate and the predicted range distance of 120–170 Mpc for the third observing run of LIGO, we predict, accounting for 90% confidence intervals, that LIGO–Virgo will detect anywhere between zero and two DNS mergers. We explore the effects of the underlying pulsar population properties on the merger rate and compare our merger detection rate with those estimated using different formation and evolutionary scenario of DNS systems. As we demonstrate, reconciling the rates is sensitive to assumptions about the DNS population, including its radio pulsar luminosity function. Future constraints from further gravitational wave DNS detections and pulsar surveys anticipated in the near future should permit tighter constraints on these assumptions.