Future Greenhouse Gas and Local Pollutant Emissions for India: Policy Links and Disjoints

Abstract

This paper estimates the future greenhousegas (GHG) and local pollutant emissions forIndia under various scenarios. Thereference scenario assumes continuation ofthe current official policies of the Indiangovernment and forecasts of macro-economic,demographic and energy sector indicators.Other scenarios analyzed are the economicgrowth scenarios (high and low), carbonmitigation scenario, sulfur mitigationscenario and frozen (development) scenario.The main insight is that GHG and localpollutant emissions from India, althoughconnected, do not move in synchronizationin future and have a disjoint under variousscenarios. GHG emissions continue to risewhile local pollutant emissions decreaseafter some years. GHG emission mitigationtherefore would have to be pursued for itsown sake in India. National energy securityconcerns also favor this conclusion sincecoal is the abundant national resource whilemost of the natural gas has to be imported.The analysis of contributing factors tothis disjoint indicates that sulfurreduction in petroleum oil products andpenetration of flue gas desulfurisationtechnologies are the two main contributorsfor sulfur dioxide (SO2) mitigation.The reduction in particulate emissions ismainly due to enforcing electro-staticprecipitator efficiency norms in industrialunits, with cleaner fuels and vehicles alsocontributing substantially. These policytrends are already visible in India.Another insight is that high economicgrowth is better than lower growth tomitigate local pollution as lack ofinvestible resources limits investments incleaner environmental measures. Ouranalysis also validates the environmentalKuznets' curve for India as SO2emissions peak around per capita GDP ofUS$ 5,300–5,400 (PPP basis) under variouseconomic growth scenarios.