Future atmospheric methane concentrations in the context of the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations

Abstract

Tropospheric CH4 concentration depends, according to modeled tropospheric processes, on many factors, including emissions of CH4 as well as NOx and CO. Illustrative analyses of the relation between emissions and CH4 concentration give some guidance on the role of CH4 in the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations. The contribution of CH4 to radiative forcing at the time of stabilization is expected to be modest, provided CH4 and CO emissions do not go far beyond current rates. However, in cases leading to stabilization the potential mitigation of increases in radiative forcing by methane control could be comparable to that of CO2 control over the next century. Whether or not this potential is realized will depend partially on the cost of deep reductions of CH4, NOx, CO, or CO2 emissions over the next century, which is not known.