Abstract
Central England temperature data for 1659–1986 are analysed using a new procedure for separating the trend from monthly mean temperatures. The method has been developed without any important assumption relating to the trend function. The monthly trends are illustrated. It is suggested that a general warming tendency underlies various cooling and warming periods. Several autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) processes have been fitted to the stationarized time series of which an ARMA (2, 1) process proved to be the most appropriate model. Calculations on the data after adjustment to remove non-linear trends show much lower autocorrelations of yearly and individual monthly mean temperatures than estimated before.
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