Fulfilling international obligations of the Republic of Kazakhstan toward achieving carbon neutrality: Legal challenges and prospects

China updated its NDC in 2020, pledging to achieve carbon peaking before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. To achieve these targets, China must revise its energy mix planning to increase energy security and meet the demand for low-carbon energy production to combat climate change. Linfen is one of the most important economic cities in Shanxi Province, which is one of China's most important coal-producing regions and is plagued by high pollution and high energy consumption. Linfen was chosen as the city of interest for this study due to being a coal hub and one of the most polluted cities in the nation. To ensure effective policy implementation, it is essential to investigate citizens understanding and integrate their perceptions into policy formulation. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the perceptions and attitudes of Linfen citizens regarding China's National Determined Contributions (NDCs) on energy transformation for enhancing quality of life. The questionnaire, containing 27 questions, was distributed online, and received 402 valid responses. The finding revealed that 72.14% of respondents indicated that people were concerned about climate change, and more than 80% agreed with the China NDC's target of increasing the use of renewable energy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and achieve carbon neutrality. They also revealed that developing renewable energy projects based on China's NDCs could improve their quality of life while also boosting the city's economic and social benefits. Nevertheless, it was observed that 10.34% of the participants showed a limited knowledge of the local environmental regulations and China's NDCs. To achieve the government's goals of carbon neutrality by 2030, it is essential to increase the awareness, engagement, and education of Chinese citizens. This will facilitate successful carbon neutrality efforts and necessitate the implementation of public outreach programs that foster communication among diverse stakeholder groups at the local level.

Chile aims to reach carbon neutrality. Its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) commits the country to reach net-zero emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050 and sets targets for emissions to be reduced progressively over time. To comply with the goals of the NDC, line ministries have considered a set of sectoral transformations, such as closing coal-fired power plants, promoting electric mobility, and increasing forest captures which, taken together, could bring emissions down to zero. This study evaluates how these sectoral transformations would fare under a wide range of economic, environmental, and technological uncertainties. It identifies the vulnerabilities of the strategy, that is, under what conditions sectoral transformations are insufficient to achieve net-zero emissions. It then quantifies options for making sectoral plans to deliver the NDC more robust, that is to reduce the likelihood of not achieving carbon neutrality. Additional measures discussed include speeding up retirement of coal-fired power plants, promotion of telework and non-motorized transport, reduction of beef consumption, expansion of thermal retrofitting of houses, increased afforestation, sustainable forest management, and expansion of protected areas. These measures are based on ideas proposed by sectoral experts during a participatory process. Finally, a macroeconomic evaluation finds that enhancing the set of measures put forward to comply with the NDC would result in a net gain of 0.8% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2050, on the top of 4.4% GDP gain that the current NDC plans would bring.

The nationally determined contributions (NDCs) aim to attend long-term temperature goals, which have been imposed by the Paris agreement to strengthen climate change efforts. Fossil fuel is the major energy source in power generation in Sri Lanka, contributing 67% of total input energies. Sri Lanka is intended to achieve 70% renewable energy in the power sector by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality in the power sector by 2050 through its NDCs. This study analysed the NDCs in the Sri Lankan power sector. The study was carried out through Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment Model (AIM/End-use), a recursive dynamic least-cost optimisation framework based on bottom-up modelling principles. The Sri Lankan Power sector has been categorised into a few sectors based on the fuels used in power generation. It mainly considers thermal coal, thermal oil, and hydro. It will also consider all the existing power generation technologies, committed technologies and technologies identified as candidates. A business-as-usual scenario (BAU) and three alternatives NDC were considered in this study. These NDCs include enhancing renewable energy by adding 3867 MW, converting existing fuel oil-based combined cycle power plants to natural gas and establishing new natural gas plants, and improving the efficiency of transmission and distribution network (lost reduction 0.5% compared with BAU by 2030). The study analysed the output data and confirmed the feasibility of meeting GHG emission reduction targets through consideration of selected NDCs in the time span of 2020-2030. The GHG emissions from the BAU scenario and three countermeasure scenarios were analysed in 2015-2050. The input primary energy supply was determined to compare the variation in energy with the effect of NDCs. KEYWORDS: Power Sector, Nationally Determined Contributions, Sri Lanka, AIM/Enduse, CO2 Mitigation.

Global strategies for a low-carbon future: Lessons from the US, China, and EU's pursuit of carbon neutrality

Climate change, driven by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, poses a significant threat to China's environment, economy, and society. This review paper examines China's evolving response to this challenge. It explores China's international commitments, including the Paris Agreement and its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) aiming for carbon neutrality by 2060. Additionally, the paper analyzes domestic policies like the 1+N Climate Policy framework, the 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP) for Energy, and the National Emissions Trading Scheme. These policies highlight China's multi-pronged approach, focusing on GHG reduction and a comprehensive energy sector transformation. The paper emphasizes the importance of evaluating these policies for effectiveness and acknowledges the challenges China faces, such as balancing climate goals with economic growth. Ultimately, the paper argues that China's strategic approach signifies a growing recognition of the need for climate action. The success of this approach, coupled with continued advancements in clean energy technologies and international collaboration, will be paramount in achieving carbon neutrality and securing a sustainable future.

In order to actively fulfill its international treaty obligations, China has established the goal of peaking CO2 emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. Since 2018, when ecological civilization was written into the Constitution, the realization of carbon peak and neutrality goals has had an ideological foundation and a constitutional basis. China has formulated various special laws and built a 1 + N policy system to reduce carbon emissions, which together with the environmental protection law, climate change law, energy law and other related laws and regulations constitute a unified legal system and provide legal support to achieve carbon peak and neutrality goals. At the same time, China has taken advantage of the new national system with concentrated efforts and resources to delineate the different roles of the government and market mechanisms in carbon emission reduction, and to make the operation of the legal system of carbon peak and neutrality suitable for its actual situation by giving full paly to the initiative of both central and local governments. This article analyzes the current legal system and its characteristics in China in the process of achieving carbon peak and neutrality goals in the context of the new era, and outlooks on the improvement path of the legal system from both domestic and international dimensions. The practice, experience and development direction of China in the construction of the legal guarantee for carbon peak and neutrality goals can provide reference for other countries to achieve carbon reduction.

Solely economic mitigation strategy suggests upward revision of nationally determined contributions

Limiting global temperature increases to 1.5 °C while respecting ‘the right to health’ requires substantial reductions in Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCPs), including methane, black carbon and hydrofluorocarbons, and co-emitted air pollutants. This study evaluates the inclusion of SLCP and air pollutant mitigation within Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that were submitted between 2015 and 2022. Between pre- and post-2020 NDCs, explicit reference to SLCPs and air pollutant mitigation as priorities more than doubled, indicating a rise in policy attention to these pollutants. There was also a large increase in the percentage of countries including methane and HFCs within the scope of their overall GHG reduction targets, and three countries include explicit black carbon reduction targets. With respect to policy, there was a 45% increase in the number of specific mitigation measures included in NDCs post-2020. Hence, the number of countries with implicit reductions in SLCPs and other air pollutants covered in their NDCs is now also substantially larger compared to pre-2020, due to greater inclusion of mitigation measures that reduce SLCPs and air pollutants alongside (other) GHGs.

Future CO2 emission trends and radical decarbonization path of iron and steel industry in China

Abstract. The Paris Agreement commits 197 countries to achieve climate stabilisation at a global average surface temperature less than 2 ∘C above pre-industrial times using nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to demonstrate progress. Numerous industrialised economies have targets to achieve territorial climate neutrality by 2050, primarily in the form of “net zero” greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, particular uncertainty remains over the role of countries' agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) sectors for reasons including the potential trade-offs between GHG mitigation and food security, a non-zero emission target for methane as a short-lived GHG, and the requirement for AFOLU to act as a net sink to offset residual emissions from other sectors. These issues are represented at a coarse level in integrated assessment models (IAMs) that indicate the role of AFOLU in global pathways towards climate stabilisation. However, there is an urgent need to determine appropriate AFOLU management strategies at a national level within NDCs. Here, we present a new model designed to evaluate detailed AFOLU scenarios at national scale using the example of Ireland, where approximately 40 % of national GHG emissions originate from AFOLU. GOBLIN (General Overview for a Backcasting approach of Livestock INtensification) is designed to run randomised scenarios of agricultural activities and land use combinations within biophysical constraints (e.g. available land area, livestock productivities, fertiliser-driven grass yields, and forest growth rates). Using AFOLU emission factors from national GHG inventory reporting, GOBLIN calculates annual GHG emissions out to the selected target year for each scenario (2050 in this case). The long-term dynamics of forestry are represented up to 2120 so that scenarios can also be evaluated against the Paris Agreement commitment to achieve a balance between emissions and removals over the second half of the 21st century. Filtering randomised scenarios according to compliance with specific biophysical definitions (GHG time series) of climate neutrality will provide scientific boundaries for appropriate long-term actions within NDCs. We outline the rationale and methodology behind the development of GOBLIN, with an emphasis on biophysical linkages across food production, GHG emissions, and carbon sinks at a national level. We then demonstrate how GOBLIN can be applied to evaluate different scenarios in relation to a few possible simple definitions of “climate neutrality”, discussing opportunities and limitations.

Achieving carbon neutrality enables China to attain its industrial water-use target

Global climate change, marked by persistent warming trends, has emerged as one of the foremost challenges confronting human society in the 21st century. Systematically promoting carbon peak and neutrality has become a critical priority for governments in China. As the most active urbanization region in the country, metropolitan areas assume a pivotal leadership and exemplary role in executing carbon peak and neutrality initiatives. Consequently, we focus our research on the Chang-Zhu-Tan Metropolitan Area (CMA). The STIRPAT and CA-Markov models are employed to forecast carbon sinks and carbon emissions under various scenarios in 2030 and 2060, respectively, to explore pathways to carbon neutrality under various conditions. The findings indicate that the carbon surplus and deficit (CSD) values have consistently been negative from 2000 to 2020, signifying a persistent carbon deficit in the region, which has exhibited an upward trend. Notably, the CSD in Yuelu, Ningxiang, and Changsha experienced the most significant increases, particularly in Yuelu, where it reached - 11.22 × 106 t by 2020. Depending on the combinations of scenarios, the CSD values are anticipated to range from - 130.75 × 106 t to - 98.22 × 106 t in 2030, and from - 63.28 × 106 t to - 21.22 × 106 t in 2060. Furthermore, the carbon emissions under different scenarios are projected to reach peaks in 2030, with a maximum of 66.54 × 106 t in 2060. The prediction results of carbon neutrality in the CMA indicate that carbon emission is expected to reach peaks before 2030 across various scenarios. However, carbon emissions will significantly exceed the carbon sink capacity by 2060, and there is still a carbon emission gap of at least 2122.44 × 104 t from achieving carbon neutrality, highlighting the necessity of accelerating emission reduction in the industrial and energy sectors. Consequently, the critical challenge to achieve carbon neutrality lies in the substantial reduction of carbon emissions.

The Chinese government actively participates in global climate governance and has proposed to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality by 2060. Due to large differences in regional development, local governments need to comprehend their own carbon neutrality status and then scientifically plan a path to achieve carbon neutrality. In this study, we constructed a new carbon neutrality capacity evaluation indicator system named CNCIS, which can dynamically reflect the balance of energy, economy and environment in the process of reducing carbon emissions. In addition, to scientifically evaluate the carbon neutrality capacity, we proposed a novel comprehensive evaluation model, namely, the BWM-Entropy TOPSIS method, which can solve the unbalanced weighting and low efficiency problem in weighting indicators and improve the applicability of TOPSIS. Finally, based on real data from 30 provinces in China, we proved the effectiveness of our method and analyse the reasons for the different carbon neutrality capacities of the provinces. The main findings are as follows: (1) Clean and efficient utilization of energy had the greatest impact on achieving carbon neutrality, which is mainly represented by carbon emissions intensity, CO2 emissions per capita and coal consumption per capita. (2) In the energy, economy and environmental aspects, the factors that most affect carbon neutrality were carbon emissions intensity, the volume of technology marketing and water consumption per capita respectively. (3) Sorted by carbon neutrality capacities, the provinces could be divided into three categories, in which economically developed provinces more easily achieve carbon neutrality while resource-based provinces are the hardest. Based on these results, corresponding suggestions were proposed to help local governments scientifically plan a path to achieve carbon neutrality.

Achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is an intrinsic requirement for sustainable development. The industrial structure primarily characterized by the chemical and energy industries poses a hindrance to the attainment of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals in the provinces of the Yellow River Basin of China. Predicting the time of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality and exploring the pathways of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is an urgent issue for the government to address. The STIRPAT and InVEST models were used for the carbon emissions and carbon sequestration estimation in the nine provinces and regions of the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2060. The results show that the study area will realize carbon peaking in 2030 under the baseline scenario, with the carbon emission of 4146 million tons. Under the high-emission scenario, the study area will realize carbon peaking in 2035, with the carbon emission of 4372 million tons. Under the low-carbon energy-saving scenario, the study area will realize carbon peaking in 2025, with the carbon emission of 3909 million tons. The entire study area cannot achieve carbon neutrality in 2060 under the three scenarios. Under the baseline and high-emission scenarios, only Qinghai and Sichuan can realize carbon neutrality by 2060, and under the low-carbon energy-saving scenario, Sichuan, Qinghai, Shaanxi, and Gansu will achieve carbon neutrality on time. This research indicates that attaining carbon peaking and carbon neutrality can be accomplished by implementing strategies such as encouraging the growth of clean energy, managing energy usage, refining the industrial structure, and strengthening the ecosystem’s carbon sink.

Thailand commits to achieving Carbon Neutrality by 2050 and net-zero GHG emissions by 2065. Its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) also aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 30% by 2030 through domestic efforts, termed “Unconditional NDC,” and up to 40% with international support, termed “Conditional NDC,” compared to its 2030 Business-as-Usual (BAU) of 555 MtCO2eq. This study explores the potential for reducing GHG emissions in Thailand's energy sector through international cooperation such as the Joint Credit Mechanism (JCM), in accordance with of the Paris Agreement (PA). It is essential that the results of international transfers are accurately accounted for and reported in the NDC tracking under Article 13 by both Parties to prevent double counting. The investigation utilizes the AIM/EndUse model, created by the National Institute for Environmental Studies in Japan. The results show that under the international cooperation framework, Thailand needs to reduce GHG emissions beyond the target specified in the conditional NDC. Finally, to enable the transfer of Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs) under Article 6.2 of PA, Thailand's share of carbon credits should reasonably be capped at no more than 20%, with an additional emission reduction of 12.34 MtCO2 beyond the conditional Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target of 49.34 MtCO2.