From the American South to South America: Testing whether patterns of competition in two‐round elections travel from the United States to Latin America

Abstract

AbstractObjectiveIn this paper, we seek to update and expand the understanding of whether the patterns of competition in two‐round elections in the United States exist in other countries.MethodsUsing insights from the well‐developed literature on two‐round elections in the U.S. South, we analyze an original data set covering two‐round presidential systems in Latin America. We focus on the likelihood that elections will go to a second round, and, once a second round happens, the role that first‐round electoral strength and incumbency status play in determining the ultimate outcome.ResultsUnlike previous work, our statistical model accounts for unobservable factors that simultaneously affect the likelihood of a second round occurring and of the first‐round leader winning that round.ConclusionsPatterns of competition across U.S. and Latin American two‐round elections are similar, though incumbency status may be a bigger asset in the latter than in the former.