Abstract

Defined benefit (DB) pension plans are the dominant retirement program for state and local governments in the United States. However, in the last 15 years, some have given new employees a choice of alternatives to stand-alone DB pension plans such as cash balance (CB), defined contribution (DC), and hybrid retirement plans. This article examines this shift through survival analysis using panel data of 190 state and local pension plans across the United States. From 2001 to 2019, we modeled five change factors found in the pension reform literature, namely, financial constraints, interest group influence, plan membership, and liability, along with other state factors. Our analysis shows that all five of these factors impacted the shift to alternative retirement plans from stand-alone DB plans. Notable findings are that well-funded pensions were more likely to shift to alternative retirement plans, and interest groups such as police, fire, and teachers were more likely to keep stand-alone plans.

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