From Simple Determinism to Interactive Models of Voting

Abstract

The class-equals-party model of voting in Britain is inadequate as a simple deterministic model. But so too is the political socialization model. The most appropriate model for explaining individual voting in terms of survey data alone is a model that allows for the interaction of social structure, political socialization, and political attitudes. But it is also important to emphasize that a model of voting in terms of individual survey data alone is an inadequate model of electoral behavior. It ignores the importance of macroeconomic conditions that determine what is there for individual voters to perceive and, even more importantly, which parties present themselves for the voter to choose among. The point has always been important theoretically. The continuing and cumulative deterioration of the British economy and eruptions in the party system only make palpable what has always been contingently important.