From Pahad to Maidan: climate change and the socio-economic dynamics of out-migration in the Uttarakhand Himalayas

The impact of climate change on a variety of scales and on land-use policies across sectors is well-established. There will be climate-related changes to which land use must adapt, although Europe and Germany may not be as affected as other regions. Therefore, we must evaluate how climate change is perceived on a regional scale and across land-use sectors. The aim of this study is to gather information from regional land-use experts regarding their perceptions of climate change to highlight the impact of climate change on land use and to identify the risks and opportunities associated with climate change that these experts observe. With these objectives in mind, we conducted 60 semi-structured interviews and a questionnaire survey with regional land-use experts in agriculture, forestry, and water management in four case study regions in the North German Plain. Climate change is clearly acknowledged by the experts throughout the regions and across the sectors. Drought (particularly in the spring) and increased occurrences of extreme weather events are the most severe regional issues identified. Furthermore, with very few exceptions, climate change is mostly understood as a risk. The results of this study confirm the results from other models and prognoses but with more detail and precision at the regional level. Differences among the sectors and regions were also noted. Unlike most studies, the regional experts in our sample have already noted the impacts and risks of climate change cross-sectorally, which might be a good basis from which to begin regional adaptation.

Migration drivers in mountain regions in the context of climate change: A case study in Shangnan County of China

Climate change significantly impacts the hydrology and water resources of any region especially high mountain areas including cryosphere that consist of glaciers. Numerous studies report that glaciers are retreating and losing volume with time causing serious concerns over freshwater availability in the basins they feed water to. Assessment of these changes and their relationship with various climatic aspects are crucial to understand and tackle such challenges. Long-term trends in temperature and precipitation and their spatio-temporal distribution, for the mountainous state of Uttarakhand in India were assessed, utilizing the India Meteorological Department’s gridded precipitation and temperature datasets for the period 1951-2023. Mann-Kendall trend test was performed at 90% significance level, for each grid, to check monthly trends, which gave critical insights upon shifts in seasonal meteorology. Results reveal notable changes in the monthly distribution of precipitation with many grids reporting a decreasing winter precipitation (Oct-Jan) and many showing an increasing precipitation for May and August. Global warming impact is much visible through changes in minimum temperatures for almost all the grids, reporting a strong positive trend for February, March, August, September and November. Importantly, these changes are more prominent for the high-altitude areas, which highlights elevation dependent climate change pattern. Evidently, the precipitation is shifting from winters to summers and the minimum temperatures are increasing towards the end of ablation season (Aug-Sep), decreasing the chances of receiving solid precipitation or snowfall. Consequently, a decrease in snow cover is expected in the future, which from a hydrological perspective, would lead to a reduction in snowmelt discharge and its contribution to streamflow of the Himalayan perennial rivers. Moreover, the increasing temperature and precipitation during summers can generate huge discharges from glacierized catchments due to increased simultaneous contribution of glacier-melt and rainfall, causing destructive flash floods and debris flow events, as being witnessed in the recent past. Combination of decreased precipitation in winter months and increased temperatures overall, can prove detrimental to glaciers’ health as they will melt more, whereas their replenishment will be lesser, leading to negative mass balances. Climate change is certainly having an adverse effect on the mountain hydrology, especially that of the Himalayan cryosphere. The glaciated catchments are expected to have more glacier-melt and rainfall-runoff contribution and less snow-melt contribution in the near-future. The glaciers, present in the region, are expected to retreat and lose mass more rapidly, considering the meteorological changes in the high elevation areas. Small glaciers might deplete faster, which would lead to problems of freshwater availability in the nearer downstream areas dependent on the melt-runoff water. While there seems no immediate solution to the prevailing scenario of climate change, community-based measures can be adopted to tackle problems of water availability. Water conservation and springshed management in the mountainous regions are some focus areas to work upon, in order to ensure water security under the changing climate.

Although the effects of climate change are universal, some groups are more negatively affected than others, which has raised global concerns. The most affected are families involved with agriculture or that use natural resources in rural areas as a means of livelihood. This study aimed to assess the responses of rural dwellers to climate change and migration, determine the extent of climate change as a driver of migration, assess the viability of migration as an option for climate change adaptation, and evaluate the gender perspective of migration and the impact of climate change on entrepreneurial development in rural areas. A qualitative method was employed to solicit responses from respondents in selected rural areas under four different vegetation zones through in-depth interviews and focus group discussions. Data were analyzed using Atlas.ti. A difference was found in gender reactions to migration due to socio-cultural factors and family responsibilities. In addition, different types of migration patterns were found to exist among men and women. The study also revealed that climate change is a major driver of migration, affects livelihood practices differently in the vegetation zones, and has a negative impact on the entrepreneurship development of the rural areas. Finally, this study provides insights into the effect of migration type on the entrepreneurship development by gender.

The potential link between climate change, migration, and conflict has been widely discussed and is increasingly viewed by policy makers as a security issue. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the role that climate variability and change play among the many drivers of migration and conflict. The overall objective of this paper is to explore the potential pathways linking climate change, migration and increased risk of conflict. We review the existing literature surrounding this issue and break the problem into two components: the links between climate change and migration, and those between migration and conflict. We found a large range of views regarding the importance of climate change as a driver for increasing rates of migration and subsequently of conflict. We argue that future research should focus not only on the climate-migration-conflict pathway but also work to understand the other pathways by which climate variability and change might exacerbate conflict. We conclude by proposing five questions to help guide future research on the link between climate change, migration, and conflict.

Mountain regions are among the most vulnerable areas with regard to global environmental changes. In the Bolivian Andes, for example, environmental risks, such as those related to climate change, are numerous and often closely intertwined with social risks. Rural households are therefore characterized by high mobility, which is a traditional strategy of risk management. Nowadays, most rural households are involved in multi-residency or circular migratory movements at a regional, national, and international scale. Taking the case of two rural areas close to the city of La Paz, we analyzed migration patterns and drivers behind migrant household decisions in the Bolivian Andes. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with selected respondents from 68 households. The drivers for migration were categorized, their relative importance was calculated, and generalized linear mixed models were applied for statistical analyses. Our results underline that migration is a traditional peasant household strategy to increase income and manage livelihood risks under rising economic pressures, scarcity of land, insufficient local off-farm work opportunities, and low agricultural productivity. Migration predominantly occurs to nearby urban areas located in the same region. Climatic variability and water scarcity, which have increased through climate change, play crucial roles as additional stressors for agricultural production. Our results suggest that environmental factors do not drive migration independently, but are rather combined with socio-economic factors. There is a need for more research on the links between environmental changes driven by climate change and other factors and their effects on migration dynamics and rural development in the Bolivian Andes and adjacent areas.

As one of the lowest-lying island nation states in the world, the Republic of the Marshall Islands is vulnerable to sea level rise, flooding and the associated impacts on soil and water salinity. Persistent drought is further affecting agricultural production and access to drinking water, and heat stress is increasingly common. The number of Marshallese people residing in the USA has increased rapidly from 6650 in 2000 to an estimated 30,000 in 2018. While we know that climate change is already affecting the Marshall Islands and that there are significant migration flows, we do not know to what extent people already migrate because of climate change. This paper addresses this gap and presents findings from interdisciplinary fieldwork in the Marshall Islands and destination areas in the USA. The research team conducted a survey (N = 278), focus group discussions, expert interviews and a geo-spatial analysis of flood extent and migration rates to study the relationship between climatic events, ecosystem services and migration. The results show that respondents primarily cite education, health care, work and family visits as migration drivers, and only few mention climate impacts or environmental change. However, respondents do identify impacts of climate change on their livelihoods, health and safety, and the study finds significant correlations between climate impacts, trends in ecosystem services and migration propensities at household level. Furthermore, 62% of Marshallese respondents in the USA indicated that climate change affects their decision to return to Marshall Islands in the future.

This paper deals with detailed analysis of the fiasco created by the Tehri High Dam in Uttarakhand, India, particularly in terms of resettlement and rehabilitation of the local inhabitants. Aspects pertaining to the environmental issues are also discussed. Currently, the river valleys in Uttarakhand state of India are the targets of increasing hydroelectric projects. Virtually all rivers are being exploited for generating environmental friendly power. Having being learned the hard lesson from Tehri Dam, it has been decided to opt for such schemes in which comparatively little submergence and tempering with the fragile eco-systems is involved. However, our observations suggest that even in such schemes if due care is not taken they may turn out to be a failure.

Migration for work remains a livelihood strategy in subsistence farming communities globally, especially in view of unprecedented environmental change. Farmers in the high Himalaya migrate during the winter, when farming activities are reduced. This study examined the drivers of seasonal migration in the context of climate change and migration's role in food security and livelihood resilience in the district of Humla, Nepal. Focus group discussions and a household socioeconomic survey were conducted. The results suggest that rather than climate change impacts, structural poverty is the root cause of migration, such that men from poor households with small landholdings and high food insecurity, mainly belonging to low-caste groups, migrate for work during the winter. Focus group participants also presented a clear perception of climate variability and change and their negative impacts on crop production. In this context, the poorest households find cultivating their own land risky. Moreover, the traditional practice of sharecropping, which helped them reduce food shortages, has also become less profitable. Therefore, more households are likely to participate in seasonal migration in the context of climate change, and those already migrating are likely to do so for longer time periods. Currently, such migrants take up low-paying unskilled wage work, mainly in towns and cities in Uttarakhand, India, which enable them to make only modest savings, hardly enough to repay the debt their family has incurred during food shortages. Even in the future, these farmers are likely to be limited to the same migration pattern, because they lack the social ties, education, and financial capital needed to fulfill the administrative and monetary requirements for more economically promising long-term overseas migration. Thus, it is unlikely that migration will make a significant contribution to building livelihood resilience in the context of climate change in remote Himalayan farming communities.

<p>Climate and environmental changes as drivers of human migration likely reach back to the rise and decline of ancient civilizations in the Mediterranean Basin. At present, there is evidence of such changes and their impacts to cause risks for human security in the Mediterranean region particularly in its southern and eastern rim countries. Discussions on the relationships between climate change, conflicts, and human migration include framing these as potential threat multipliers, e.g., climate change-induced water shortages, which will lead to food insecurity and may thereby intensify conflicts and ultimately internal and cross-border migration. Most accounts anticipate these threat multipliers to occur in countries that are particularly vulnerable to climate change, lack adequate adaptive capacity, and be exposed to multiple socio-ecological stressors. Against the background of existing socio-political and armed conflicts in the Eastern and Southern Mediterranean, this risk deserves further scholarly attention. Inadequate or missing political instruments or agreements to deal with conflicts, insufficient cross-border collaboration, and limited links to international frameworks exacerbate the challenges faced by local communities in this region. These factors have likely contributed to the internal and cross-border migration of large groups of populations in war-torn countries in the Mediterranean Basin and elsewhere.</p><p>Despite strong evidence for links between climate change and its consequences for water, food, and economic security, there is still significant debate as to the relative importance of them for individual decisions to migrate. Equally contested are propositions addressing a possible direct causal relationship between climate change impacts or climate variability and violent conflict. In addressing these issues, it quickly becomes clear that the relationships between climate and environmental changes, conflicts, and human migration are multi-causal and are characterized by complex interactions and feedbacks. Key determinants likely include the social, political, cultural, and economic conditions of a specific country or region as well as their historical trajectory.</p><p>The Mediterranean Expert Group on Environmental and Climate Change (MedECC) has embarked on addressing these challenging issues through a Special Report that follows the First Mediterranean Assessment Report of MedECC (MAR1; 2019). Major issues to be addressed include:</p><p>(i) how can we identify current “hot spots” of climate change impacts and ongoing or emerging conflicts;</p><p>(ii) how can we shed light on understanding the roles of different determinants on internal and cross-border migration, particularly with regard to a) migration linked directly and/or indirectly to environmental change and conflicts, b) migration linked to other determinants, and c) understanding the relationships and interdependencies of different determinants;</p><p>(iii) what are major knowledge gaps and what approaches should be followed to address them?</p><p>While the “Task Force on Migration” of the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East - Cyprus Climate Change Initiative has already discussed strategies and policy instruments to enhance adaptation to climate change, the MedECC Special Report will refine and complete such assessment by considering the links between climate change, conflicts, and migration based on existing adaptation measures.</p><p>This paper will provide background and rationale for the MedECC Special Report, its present state, and perspectives on its continued development.</p>

Climate change is a global issue. Its impacts are recognized at different scales ranging from global to regional to local. Climate change particularly changes in temperature and precipitation has been observed differently in different ecological regions in Nepal Himalaya. The study area comprises five villages of three ecological regions in the Gandaki River Basin (GRB) of Nepal. Based on the observed climate data of a 30-year period from 1990 to 2020, the changes in temperature and precipitation of each ecological region are analyzed using the Mann–Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope. The temperature trend was found to be increasing at the rate of 0.0254 °C per year (°C/a) between 1990 and 2020 in the Mountain region, by 0.0921 °C/a in the Hill region and 0.0042 °C/a in the Tarai region. The precipitation trend in the Mountain region is decreasing by −13.126 mm per year (mm/a), by −9.3998 mm/a in the Hill region and by −5.0247 mm/a in the Tarai region. Household questionnaire surveys, key informant interviews and focus group discussions were carried out to assess the perception of climate change and its impact. The farmers of the three ecological regions have perceived increasing temperature trends, but perceived variability in precipitation trends. Both snowfall and rainfall have varied. Snowfall has drastically decreased. Drought has increased. Extreme disaster events and impacts from such climate-induced events are experienced by 67.9% of respondents. A major impact of climate change is reported on cultivated crops with damage caused by increased insect and rodent pests. The impact of climate change is varied by ecological region. The comparative study of observed data and household data shows the need for a micro-level study so that a real situation can be captured and would be very much useful for policy formulation to combat climate change at a local scale.

Female literacy is a crucial indicator of social development and gender equality, particularly in mountainous rural regions where accessibility and socio-cultural constraints strongly influence educational attainment. This study examines the spatio-temporal pattern of female literacy in Chakrata Block (Uttarakhand) and Shillai Block (Himachal Pradesh) during 2001-2011. The analysis is based on village-level data from the Census of India. Villages were classified into five literacy categories very high to very low based on the literacy rate. A comparative spatial analysis was applied to identify regional disparities and literacy transition. Results show overall improvement in female literacy in both blocks, but the pattern differed. Shillai experienced a balanced upward shift and eliminated very low literacy villages by 2011, while Chakrata showed gradual yet uneven progress, retaining pockets of deficiency in remote settlements. The expansion of moderate and high literacy categories indicates growing acceptance of girls’ education, however, advancement to very high literacy remained limited. The study highlights the importance of accessibility, awareness and targeted interventions for improving female literacy in mountainous rural regions. Keywords: Female literacy, Gender disparity, Rural education, Mountain regions, Educational accessibility

Contributors. Acknowledgements. Section 1: Climatic and Environmental Changes. Global change and mountain regions - an IGBP initiative for collaborative research A. Becker, H. Bugmann. Climate variations in Italy in the last 130 years M. Brunetti, et al. Dendroclimatic information on silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) in the northern Appennines M. Brunetti, et al. Trends in high frequency precipitation variability in some northern Italy secular stations M. Brunetti, et al. Climate change experiments on a glacier foreland in the Central Alps B. Erschbamer. High mountain summits as sensitive indicators of climate change effects on vegetation patterns: the 'Multi Summit-Approach' of GLORIA (Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments) H. Pauli, et al. Temperature and precipitation trends in Italy during the last century E. Piervitali, M. Colacino. Climate and other sources of change in the St. Elias region D.S. Slocombe. Permafrost and climate in Europe: climate change, mountain permafrost degradation and geotechnical hazard C. Harris, D. Vonder Muhll. Thermal variations of mountain permafrost: an example of measurements since 1987 in the Swiss Alps D. Vonder Muhll. Climate change and air quality assessment in Canadian National Parks D. Welch. Regional clean air partnerships and the ETEAM E.R. Hauge. 4 Additional Chapters. Section 2: Impact on the Biosphere and Hydrology. The Effects of global warming on mountain regions: a summary of the 1995 report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change M. Beniston. Global change in respect to tendency to acidification of subarctic mountain lakes V. Dauvalter, et al. Influence of climate, species immigration, fire, and men on forest dynamics in northern Italy,from 6000 cal. BP to today T. Mathis, et al. Koenigia Islandica (Iceland Purslane) -- A case study of a potential indicator of climate change in the UK B. Meatyard. Semi-objective sampling strategies as one basis for a vegetation survey K. Reiter, et al. Simulating the impact of climate change on drought in Swiss forest stands B. Zierl. Forecasted stability of Mediterranean evergreen species considering global change L. Gratani, A. Bombelli. Birds as bio-indicators of long-transported lead in the alpine environment M. Janiga. Annual estimations of ecophysiological parameters and biogenic volatile compounds (BVOCs) emissions in Citrus Sinensis (L.) Osbeck F. Manes, et al. A multiscale study to analyse the response of vegetation to climatic conditions F. Manes, et al. Phytotoxic ozone effect on selected plant species in a standardized experimental design F. Manes, et al. Plant invasions in central european middle-mountains: a result of global change? L. Soukupova. 5 Additional Chapters. Section 3: Socio-Economic Implications. Economic evaluation of Italian parks and natural areas S. Notaro, G. Signorello. Environmental and human impact on coastal and marine protected areas in India R. Krishnamoorthy, et al. Past climate change and the generation and persistence of species richness in a biodiversity hotspot, the Cape Flora of South Africa G. Midgley, R. Roberts. The world network of biosphere reserves: a flexible structure for understanding and responding to global change M. Price. The role of a global protected areas system in conserving biodiversity in the face of climate change L. Hannah. Section 4: The Abruzzi Parks: A Case Study. The strong reduction phase of the Calderone glacier during the last two centuri

Abstract. Busthanul N, Demmallino EB, Sultani HR, Lampe M, Ismail A, Yassi A, Daris L, Saudi MY, Zainuddin A. 2023. Ecological adaptation of smallholders to tropical climate change in the highland zone of South Sulawesi, Indonesia. Biodiversitas 24: 5328-5335. Climate change has adversely affected the stability of agricultural production and livelihood systems, threatening the well-being of farmers in Indonesia, particularly small-scale farmers with limited resources. To mitigate the impacts of climate change on agricultural production, innovative approaches are required. Ecological adaptation is one of such approaches which addresses the threat of climate change. However, studies on ecological adaptation in Indonesia have mostly been concentrated on food crops, with limited attention to horticultural commodities in mountainous regions. This study aims to explore how horticulture farmers in the mountainous region of Enrekang District, South Sulawesi, adapt to the effects of tropical climate change. This study employs a post-positivistic approach, to a case study of the impact of climate change on the horticulture farming community in Enrekang District. The study uses a household survey method to gather quantitative data, while focus group discussions and key informant interviews were used to collect qualitative data using semi-structured and unstructured questionnaires. The study's findings revealed diverse ecological adaptation patterns among horticulture farmers, which include adjustments in planting timing, management of pests and diseases, crop rotation, and the use of pumping systems. In addition to these scientifically based strategies, local knowledge also played a crucial role in adaptation processes. Furthermore, to ensure the sustainability of these ecological adaptation strategies, there is a need for the government and scientists to support and empower local communities collectively. This recognition and collaboration are vital for ensuring the resilience and effectiveness of adaptation efforts in mitigating climate change.

The purpose of this paper is to understand the extent to which farmers’ participation in NGO interventions affect their household food security in Yatta Sub County of Machakos County, Kenya. This study assessed farmers’ participation in needs identification, selection of interventions, implementation and monitoring. The study applied mixed method approach to collect both quantitative and qualitative data. This involved a cross-sectional survey of 357 farmers selected from 100 farmers’ groups that had worked with NGOs for more than three years, 6 focus group discussions (5 with farmers and one with NGOs), 33 key informant interviews, as well as 2 case studies. Quantitative data was analysed using logistic regression model. Findings reveal that there is a significant relationship between farmers’ participation in NGO interventions and household food security outcomes. In needs identification, NGOs mainly engaged farmers in joint meetings as opposed to formalized assessments. Selection of interventions was done through consultative meetings, while implementation was carried out in farmer plots and demonstration plots. Farmers participated in monitoring through project management committees, quarterly review meetings and feedback sessions. However, there was no standardized protocols of applying participation among NGOs. Sometimes unstructured needs assessment, hurried selection of interventions and lack of skills among farmers to negotiate with NGOs for preferred interventions negatively impacted farmers’ participation. The study is useful in informing NGOs and funding agencies to strengthen farmers’ participation in NGO interventions. NGOs should develop standardized participation protocols, which are engrained in their contracts with farmers to enhance uniformity and accountability.