From geopolitical pendulum to regional player: Uzbekistan’s regional foreign policy following the leadership change in 2016

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ABSTRACT Existing studies on the correlation between leadership change and regionalism foreign policy shifts in Central Asia tend to focus on a narrow single explanatory factor, which often overlooks the multiplicity of subregional and domestic explanatory factors. Using the case of the presidential transition in Uzbekistan from Islam Karimov to Shavkat Mirziyoyev, this paper analyses how Uzbekistan’s foreign policy shifted towards more regionalism following leadership change and seeks to understand how it can be explained by subregional and domestic variables that influenced the new leader’s perception. Methodological analysis draws on a content analysis of 71 official speeches by President Mirziyoyev and other sources to argue that a combination of subregional and domestic factors, including regional security dynamics, domestic economic needs and expanding the region's transit potential should be included as the main variables that shaped the leadership's perception of regional foreign policy. Consequently, the paper challenges existing accounts for reasons underpinning closer regional collaboration in Central Asia by focusing on multiple explanatory variables.