From concentration to expansion: decoding the export diversification-growth nexus in India

Central American (CA) countries are considered to be part of the developing world. Their small and open economies have historically relied on the production and exports of agricultural products. In the last two decades, even though the share of agriculture in the GPD has declined significantly facing the surge in shares of manufacturing and service sectors, agriculture remains as one of the major economic activities in the CA countries. Agricultural sector employs a large portion of the economically active population and is an important source of income, particularly for rural and unskilled labor force. Significantly diversified economic performance has been observed among the seven CA countries during the past decades. Among them, Costa Rica and Panama are the most developed in terms of per capita GDP and outperformed the other five countries in various social-economic indicators, whereas Honduras and Nicaragua are the least developed. Identifying the sources contributing to observed differences among the CA countries has important implications for policy makers in their pursuit of economic growth. Therefore, this thesis attempts to examine two important issues for the seven CA countries – economic diversification and its link to economic growth as well as sectoral productivity differences – during the period 1990-2010. We first examine the economic diversification and its possible relation to economic growth. In the second part of the thesis, we then move to analyze the factors leading to differences in the labor productivity of industrial and agriculture sectors. According to Esanov (2012), economic diversification can be categorized into the product or export diversification. Both these two types of diversification are considered to enhance economic growth. To measure diversification, the trend of GDP composition by sector is used as a measure of product diversification while Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) is calculated to measure export diversification. The empirical results in this study suggest that the diversification strategy in the CA region is country-specific, Costa Rica and Panama experienced significant achievements while the other five countries seem to be lagged. Export diversification has been achieved mostly within the same agricultural sector but not among sectors; CA countries have introduced new export products into their export basket, but those new products mainly come from agricultural sector. In addition, the levels of diversification experienced by the CA countries are significantly lower compared to the developed economies. Based on regression analysis controlling for year and country specific unobserved characteristics, this study provides empirical evidence supporting the positive association of export diversification and per-capita-GDP growth. In the second part of the thesis, determinants contributing to observed differences in labor productivity between the industrial and agriculture sectors are analyzed through a two-stage regression model. The data collected indicates that, during 1990-2010, the level of labor productivity in the industrial sector has been higher and growing at a greater speed in comparison with the agricultural sector. A systematic review of the literature suggests that this sectoral productivity gap can be explained by variables such as physical capital investment, openness of the economy, foreign direct investment (FDI) as well as education (human capital). To test the hypothesis that those variables have a greater effect in industrial sector than in agricultural sector, which consequently implies a wider gap in labor productivity, a structural equation model is constructed. The specification in our econometric model explicitly considers possible problem of endogenous explanatory variable. The regression results suggest physical capital investments, openness and education are the major drivers to widen up the gap of labor productivity in the industrial and agriculture sectors. As a reasonable proxy for knowledge spilled into the CA countries from the developed countries, FDI is found to have a diminishing effect on productivity differences; it is a determinant of productivity differences at low level of FDI, but it reduces the productivity differences at large enough level of FDI inflow. Study sectoral labor productivity differences is of special significance in Central America, because these countries have labor-intensive economies and both agricultural and industry sectors together employ a large share of the economically active population. Due to its small share in the world economy, Central America has often been left out in researches on topics related to economic growth. To the best of our knowledge, there has not been previous literature on economic diversification and sectoral productivity differences in the CA countries as a whole. In this regard, this thesis fills in the gap and thus represents a significant complement to literature on the region.

This paper investigates the impact of stock market development, money supply and inflation on economic growth in India during the post-globalisation era of the 1990s, especially during the period from 1994 to 2012. Using autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, the study finds stock market development, money supply, inflation and economic growth are cointegrated, suggesting the presence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between them. The vector autoregressive error correction model (VECM) further confirms the existence of both bidirectional and unidirectional causality between economic growth, money supply, inflation and stock market development in India. The policy implication of this study is that inflation and money supply can be considered a policy variable to predict both economic growth and stock market development in the Indian economy during the post globalisation era.

This paper examines the relationship between interest rate liberalisation policies and sustainable economic growth in Nigeria. Employing the autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL) – bounds testing approach and using GDP per capita as economic growth indicator, the paper establishes a long run relationship between economic growth and interest rate liberalisation, which is represented by an index calculated using principal component analysis (PCA). The empirical findings of this paper show that interest rate liberalisation policies have a positive impact on economic growth in Nigeria. These results apply irrespective of whether the test is conducted in the short run or in the long run. This supports the numerous past studies, which have reported positive results regarding the effects of interest rate liberalisation on economic growth. The paper, therefore, concludes that interest rate liberalisation policies have been very effective in bolstering economic growth in Nigeria.

Although the growth in exports of Bangladesh over the past few decades has been exemplary, it is enormously concentrated on just one industry which is the Ready Made Garment (RMG) sector. This over dependence on just one sector for export earnings places Bangladesh in a vulnerable position. This study examined the relationship between export diversification and growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Bangladesh using annual data from 1995 to 2020. The study utilized the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test to cointegration approach to estimate the long run relationship and the error correction model to determine the existence of a short run relationship. The results from the study indicate that there exists a significant long run cointegrating relationship between overall export diversification and economic growth in Bangladesh. In the long term, if horizontal export diversification increases by 1%, the GDP growth rate shall rise by around 1.7%. Conversely, the short run relationship between export diversification and economic growth is proven to be insignificant. The results of this study implore that Bangladesh should implement strategies and policies that will diversify its exports and shift away from the dominance of just one exporting sector.

To attain maximum benefits of the demographic dividend which India can enjoy due to its huge working-age pollution, it is crucial to have a highly educated and skilled labour force. In this context, the current analysis focuses on understanding the potential impact of education on the nation's economic well-being. The study attempts to examine the relationship between education and economic growth of India using time-series data from the period 1980-81 to 2019-20. The dependent variable is Real GDP per capita, while the independent variables include total labour force, gross capital formation and gross enrollment ratios at the primary, secondary, and higher education levels, with labour force and gross capital formation as control variables. The study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methodology to explore the dynamics of the association among the concerned variables in short and long run. In the short run, gross capital formation and primary education show a positive and significant relationship with India's economic growth. ARDL Bounds test confirms the existence of a long run relationship existing between economic growth and the independent variables. Secondary and higher education are found to have statistically significant impact on economic growth of India in the long run which discloses the relevance of education for economic well-being of the nation. Consequently, it is recommended that the government focuses on promoting post-elementary education.

This study investigated the relationship between human capital development and economic growth in Nigeria for the period of 1981-2017. Annual time series data from various issues of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin and World Development Indicator (WDI) were collected for the dependent variable - gross domestic product per capita (the proxy for economic growth) and the independent variables - human development index (HDI), number of under-five deaths (NUFD), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), labour force participation (LABF), remittance (REM) and inflation rate (INF). The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Dickey Fuller Generalized Least Squares (DF-GLS) detrending test were used to test for unit root while the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) or the bound testing approach was employed in the study. The result showed that human capital development (HDI), labour force participation (LABF) and remittance (REM) had direct and significant long run impact on economic growth while the short-run estimated model revealed that the one-lagged value of gross domestic product (RGDP) and HDI had direct and significant impact on the dependent variable. The error correction term showed that in event of a disequilibrium, shock or perturbation, the system would restore itself to equilibrium at an adjustment speed of approximately 97.1%. To increase Nigeria’s human development index (HDI), it was recommended that remittances from international agencies should not only used judiciously by the government for the development of human capital. This would not only increase creativity, skill and productive capacities but also promote economic growth in Nigeria.

The banking and stock market development was perceived to be an essential channel for economic growth through mobilisation and allocating productive investments. On the other hand, it was emphasised that economic growth would create demand for financial services and would lead to financial sector development. Existing literature attempts to investigate whether financial development is the primary driver of economic growth or vice versa. However, the issue remains unsolved and ambiguous. The present study investigated the causal relationship between stock markets, banks and economic growth in India using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. The empirical result confirmed the long-run bidirectional relationship between financial development and economic growth in India. In the short-run, the empirical evidence showed that the market capitalisation of the Bombay Stock Exchange and IIP were unrelated and that a bidirectional relationship existed between the value of shares traded on the Bombay Stock Exchange and output. Furthermore, the findings supported unidirectional causality from the National Stock Exchange market capitalisation to output in the short-run. The value of shares traded on the National Stock Exchange and output had a feedback connection.

This study is investigating the short run and long run relationship among major macroeconomic variables and economic growth for the economy of Pakistan during 2000 - 2015. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and bounds test have been applied to estimate the short run and long run relationship between GDP and other major macroeconomic variables like, labour force, rate of capital formation, money supply, inflation rate, trade rate, foreign direct investment (FDI) and unemployment. ARDL model indicates significant relationship between labour force, FDI and unemployment economic growth, in the long run, at 1% and 5% level. Keywords: Macroeconomic variables; capital formation; money supply; inflation; trade; FDI; unemployment; economic growth; ARDL model. JEL Code : O1; O4; F43. DOI : 10.7176/JRDM/54-07 Publication date : April 30 th 2019

This study examines both the short-run and long-run relationship among information and communication technology (ICT), economic growth and electricity consumption using annual time-series data for India for the period 1991-2014. All the variables under study are I (1) as per Dickey-Fuller-Generalised least square unit root test results. For cointegration test and causality analysis, we have used autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) bounds test and vector error correction model (VECM) Granger causality test respectively. ARDL test results suggest that ICT stimulates economic growth in the short-run but not in the long-run, whereas electricity consumption has significant and positive impact on economic growth in the long-run and short-run as well, which supports the energy-led growth hypothesis. However, there is no cointegration when electricity consumption becomes a dependent variable and other variables are independent. Economic growth does not Granger cause electricity consumption in the short-run. These findings suggest that India should focus on ICT expansion to accelerate economic growth in short-run and India should not follow energy conservation policies as it might adversely impact economic growth in both short- and long-run. Instead, India should focus on energy efficient policies. This study has crucial policy implications. Hence, proper balance and coordination among ICT policy, energy policy, and economic growth policy are recommended.

The present study is an attempt to identify the major sources of economic growth in India over the period 1971–2016 by employing the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing model. The long-run estimates of the ARDL model indicate that the economic growth in India is predominately driven by per capita capital and financial development while inflation retards economic growth. Contrary to the long run, the short-run results of error correction representation suggest that per capita capital along with human capital development has a significant positive impact on economic growth in India, while inflation curtails economic growth. India has some important policy insights to draw from these findings that the government policies in India need to emphasize the institutional mechanisms that further strengthen the Indian financial system which would increase its depth, scope and stability to foster economic growth. Further, the policymakers in India should strengthen their anti-inflationary measures, through supply-side reforms, to avoid the negative effects of inflation on economic growth. Finally, the government policies in India should also place a considerable emphasis on investment in human capital, which in turn fosters economic growth. JEL Codes: O4, G2, E24, C1

Complementarities between Exports and Human Capital in Economic Growth: Evidence from the Semi‐industrialized Countries

This study investigates the impact of external debt on the economic growth of Laos, with a specific focus on the evolving structure of external debt in the country spanning 1995 to 2020. It employs an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to establish long-term cointegration among key economic variables. The variables under scrutiny include human capital, labor force participation, external debt, inflation, and exchange rates, which are analyzed for their roles in shaping economic growth in Laos. In the long term, the study identifies robust and statistically significant relationships. Notably, human capital and the labor force emerge as influential drivers of economic growth, with coefficients of 2.0594 and 0.0591, respectively. Conversely, there is a substantial negative correlation between the external debt ratio per GDP and inflation rate with economic growth. This indicates that increases in these variables are associated with diminished economic expansion over time. In the short term, the study reveals that human capital and labor force participation positively impact Laos' economic growth. In contrast, the short-term effects of the external debt ratio, inflation rate, and exchange rate are adverse, indicating potential economic challenges that need to be addressed promptly. Based on findings, this study provides valuable insights into the determinants of economic growth in Laos, both in the long and short terms. These findings can inform policymakers and researchers in the development of more effective economic strategies, taking into account Laos' unique economic context.

This study examined the trade impact of trade liberalization in the developing economies from 1981 to 2014. It employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound test approach. Two measures of trade liberalization were used to form an index of trade openness, while three measures of financial sector development were used to construct index of financial development using principal component analysis. The result suggested that the long run impact of trade liberalization on the economic growth of Nigerian is found to be negatively significant. The short run impact of trade liberalization on economic growth was found to be positive and significant. In total, the long and short run impact of trade liberalization to economic growth suggested that the Nigeria economy is yet to harness the benefits of international trade. It was also suggested that trade liberalization could enhance economic growth. However, the introduction of other variables in the likes of financial development, labour force and gross capital formation, none played a significant impact on economic growth in the Nigeria. The findings of this study offer some important policy implications. Trade liberalization could be another avenue for economic diversification through foreign direct investment and by so doing there will be improved in gross capital formation and indeed economic growth. Nigeria also needs to create diversified, dynamic and competitive sectors capable of absorbing the more educated labour force to translate human capital to higher economic growthKey Words: Trade liberalization, Economic growth, Labour force, gdpc, ARDL, cointegration

The paper examined "the role of export diversification on economic growth in South Africa". The study used annual time series secondary data for the period covering 1980 to 2010 and employed a Vector Error Correction Model to determine the effects of export diversification and possible factors that affect it on economic growth. Possible factors that affect export diversification considered as independent variables in this study include gross capital formation, human capital, real effective exchange rate and trade openness. Results of the study reveal that export diversification and trade openness are positively related to economic growth while real effective exchange rate, capital formation and human capital have negative long run relationships with economic growth. The study recommends the continual implementation of trade liberalisation by the South African government. The South African government is also encouraged promote the production of a diversified export basket through subsidisation and promotion of innovation and production of new products. DOI: 10.5901/mjss.2014.v5n9p705

The impact of corruption on economic growth has been the subject of theoretical debate among economists, with some arguing that corruption hinders growth and development. In contrast, others suggest that it can positively affect the development process. As such, the effects of corruption on economic growth remain inconclusive. This study examines corruption's impact on economic growth, as measured by real GDP per capita (constant 2015 US$) in Malaysia. The study utilized the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method to investigate the relationship between corruption and economic growth in Malaysia. The data used in the analysis were obtained from the World Bank and International Country Risk Guide data repository and covered the period of 1992-2021 annually. The Corruption Index was used to measure corruption. At the same time, other variables included economic growth (GDP), Gross Capital Formation (GCF), General Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GE), Individuals Using the Internet (INT), Labor Force (LF), and School Enrollment (SE) in Malaysia. The study's primary results are as follows: (1) corruption and economic growth in Malaysia have a long run relationship when considering the measures of GCF, GE, INT, LF, and SE in the model; (2) when the measures of GCF, GE, INT, LF, and SE were included interchangeably and combined in the model, corruption had a positive and significant impact on economic growth in Malaysia; (3) corruption and economic growth in Malaysia have a significant short-run relationship when considering the measures of GCF, GE, INT, LF, and SE in the model. The study's limitation relates to the data used, as alternative corruption measures beyond the corruption index could yield different outcomes. The study's distinctive contribution is exploring the impact and relationship between corruption and economic growth, specifically in Malaysia.