Abstract
Climate change is expected to affect the occurrence of heavy rainfall. We analyzed trends of heavy rainfall days for the last decades in Germany. For all available stations with daily data, days exceeding daily thresholds (10, 20, 30 mm) were counted annually. The Mann–Kendall trend test was applied to overlapping periods of 30 years (1951–2019). This period was extended to 1901 for 111 stations. The stations were aggregated by natural regions to assess regional patterns. Impacts of data inconsistencies on the calculated trends were evaluated with the metadata and recent hourly data. Although the trend variability depended on the chosen exceedance threshold, a general long-term trend for the whole of Germany was consistently not evident. After 1951, stable positive trends occurred in the mountainous south and partly in the northern coastal region, while parts of Central Germany experienced negative trends. The frequent location shifts and the recent change in the time interval for daily rainfall could affect individual trends but were statistically insignificant for regional analyses. A case study supported that heavy rains became more erosive during the last 20 years. The results showed the merit of historical data for a better understanding of recent changes in heavy rainfall.
Highlights
Changes in extreme weather and climate events can have significant impacts on the environment and are considered to be among the most serious challenges to society [1]
This topic is directly linked to several Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) [9], including SDG 6.4.1, 13.2, and 15.3 [10]
There was no clear Germany-wide trend as Kendall’s tau fluctuated around zero, and dominantly positive trends in one CLINO period were compensated by more negative trends in other CLINO periods
Summary
Changes in extreme weather and climate events can have significant impacts on the environment and are considered to be among the most serious challenges to society [1]. Heavy rains are extreme weather events, which can occur everywhere They can quickly lead to rising water levels and flooding, often accompanied by soil erosion [5]. Water erosion leads to huge losses of land resources and affects the livelihood of our civilization [8]. This topic is directly linked to several Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) [9], including SDG 6.4.1 (water use efficiency), 13.2 (climate change measures), and 15.3 (land degradation neutrality) [10]. Reliable information on the frequency, duration, and intensity of heavy rainfall is important, e.g., for water resources management and agriculture
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