Foreign Debt and Economic Growth: The Role of Institutional Quality and Financial Development in Asian Developing Countries
ABSTRACTThe dual role of foreign debt as both a stimulus for growth and a driver of fiscal fragility remains a critical challenge for developing economies. Although existing literature emphasises static debt‐to‐GDP thresholds, this study contributes to a paradigm shift by examining how institutional quality (IQ) and financial development (FD) dynamically moderate the debt–growth nexus across 32 developing Asian countries (1997–2022). Employing advanced second‐generation econometric techniques, system GMM, dynamic common correlated effects (DCCE) and dynamic panel threshold models (DPTM), we address the issues of endogeneity, cross‐sectional dependence and heterogeneity that have been pervasive in prior studies. Results reveal that foreign debt exerts a baseline adverse effect on economic growth, consistent with the debt overhang hypothesis. However, strong institutional structures and developed financial systems reduce these adverse effects, enabling debt to act as an impetus for growth beyond the identified thresholds. For the full sample, institutional quality and financial development thresholds are 0.93 (on a −2.5 to +2.5 scale) and 38.35% (on a 0 to 100 scale) of GDP, respectively. Disaggregated analyses show that lower‐middle‐income countries (LMICs) benefit at thresholds of 0.91 (IQ) and 37.33% (FD), whereas upper‐middle‐income countries (UMICs) require stricter thresholds of 0.85 (IQ) and 55.94% (FD) to leverage debt for innovation‐driven growth. These findings challenge the universality of debt‐to‐GDP ‘danger zones’, emphasising context‐dependent thresholds shaped by governance and financial maturity. This study underscores that institutional reforms—such as enhancing transparency, strengthening the rule of law, improving fiscal accountability, deepening financial systems and advancing credit allocation and risk intermediation—are essential prerequisites for the sustainable utilisation of external debt. By bridging institutional economics and debt sustainability frameworks, this work offers policymakers actionable benchmarks to navigate debt's dual role as a developmental tool and fiscal liability in emerging Asia.
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3
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1380
- 10.1086/450153
- Jan 1, 1966
- Economic Development and Cultural Change
Publisher Summary This chapter discusses the financial development and economic growth in underdeveloped countries. An observed characteristic of the process of economic development over time, in a market-oriented economy using the price mechanism to allocate resources, is an increase in the number and variety of financial institutions and a substantial rise in the proportion not only of money but also of the total of all financial assets relative to GNP and to tangible wealth. Typical statements indicate that the financial system somehow accommodates—or, to the extent that it malfunctions, it restricts—growth of real per capita output. Such an approach places emphasis on the demand side for financial services; as the economy grows it generates additional and new demands for these services, which bring about a supply response in the growth of the financial system. In this view, the lack of financial institutions in underdeveloped countries is simply an indication of the lack of demand for their services.
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237
- 10.1086/452476
- Jul 1, 2000
- Economic Development and Cultural Change
Institutional Quality and Income Distribution
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12
- 10.1002/jsc.2293
- Sep 1, 2019
- Strategic Change
The impact of financial development (FD) on economic growth in the context of Malaysia and Indonesia has been examined in this study regarding the role of the financial crisis and strategic changes in the institutional setup. Autoregressive distributed lags and threshold regression were applied, and time series data were analyzed for the period between 1984 and 2017 revealing that FD promoted the economic growth in both economies during this period. A nonlinear analysis also revealed that FD and economic growth follow an inverted U‐shape relation in the case of Malaysia whereas, in Indonesia, it followed a U‐shape relation. It was discovered that not all measures of FD promote economic growth. For instance, market capitalization was profound in the Malaysian economy while credit to the private sector and money supply was conducive for the Indonesian economy. The analysis demonstrated that the Asian and global financial crisis adversely affected economic growth in the case of Indonesia due to poor institutional quality (IQ), whereas in Malaysia it was relatively safe from the adversity brought about by the financial crisis due to the presence of IQ and good corporate governance. However, a positive change in IQ was found to have a much greater impact on augmenting economic growth rather than playing a mediating role in connection with FD and economic growth in Malaysia. In the context of Indonesia however, IQ was found to impede economic growth but played a positive and significant mediating role in the nexus of FD and economic growth. The spill‐over analysis revealed that Malaysian FD is positively associated with Indonesian economic growth while Indonesian FD is negatively associated with the Malaysian economy. This study provided all economic and anecdotal explanations in supporting the results of this study.
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6
- 10.15408/etk.v19i1.13709
- Mar 22, 2020
- ETIKONOMI
The literature explored the relationship between financial development and economic sustainability, taking into consideration the roles played by institutional quality in the ECOWAS region. Most literature still debates on the roles of institutional quality on economic growth. The study used data from 1996-2017 for 15 emerging economies within the ECOWAS by applying two-step SYS GMM (SGMM) estimators. The study discovered that financial development has no significant and positive alliance on economic sustainability in the ECOWAS region. Besides that, regulatory quality and control of corruption, considered institutional quality variables have conflicting results with control of corruption reducing growth as well as regulatory quality increasing growth. Again, the results came out that capital formation has a positive association with growth and labor force influencing negatively on growth. Finally, due to a lack of proper corruption control systems in the region and poor financial sector development, growth cannot improve.JEL Classification: O11, O43, C23How to Cite:Li, F., Appiah, M., & Korankye, B. (2020). Financial Development and Economic Sustainability in ECOWAS Countries: The Role of Institutional Quality. Etikonomi: Jurnal Ekonomi, 19(1), 41 – 50. https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v19i1.13709.
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250
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The paper investigates the effect of financial development and institutional quality on the environment in South Asia. Other determinants of environmental quality included are economic growth, energy consumption, FDI, trade openness and institutional quality. For empirical analysis, panel data is used for the period 1984 to 2015. The estimated results indicate that Environmental Kuznet Curve (EKC) hypothesis holds in South Asia, i.e., environment first deteriorates with economic development and then it starts improving. Empirical results reveal that 1% increase in economic growth worsens environment by 1.709%. However, further increase in economic growth improves environment by 0.104%. Energy consumption has deteriorating effect on environment. Financial development has degraded the environment in the region, which indicates that South Asian countries have used financial development for capitalization and not to improve technology. The estimated results show that 1% increase in financial development deteriorates environment by 0.147%. FDI, which is a measure of financial openness, has mitigating effect on pollution. In turn, trade openness has worsened the environmental quality in the region. Institutional quality has significant negative effect on carbon emissions. It also has significant negative moderating effects on carbon emissions. The findings show that 1% improvement in institutional quality will decrease pollution by 0.114%. The study suggests that South Asian countries should focus more on technology effect and not on scale effect of financial development.
- Research Article
28
- 10.15388/omee.2020.11.20
- May 29, 2020
- Organizations and Markets in Emerging Economies
Most of the literature that explored the relationship between financial development and economic growth taking into consideration the roles played by institutional quality in the ECOWAS region still debates on the roles of institutional quality on economic growth. This study used data from 1996-2017 for 15 emerging economies within the ECOWAS by applying two-step SYS GMM (SGMM) estimators. The following conclusions were developed: first, the study discovered that financial development has no significant and positive impact on economic growth in the ECOWAS region. Secondly, regulatory quality and control of corruption, which are considered as institutional quality variables, have opposing results with control of corruption reducing growth as well as regulatory quality variable increasing growth. Again, the results indicate that capital formation has a positive association with growth and labor force influencing growth negatively. Finally, due to a lack of proper corruption control systems in the region and poor financial sector development, growth cannot improve.
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- Dec 30, 2024
- Lapai Journal of Economics
This study investigates how institutional quality and the digital economy influence inclusive growth in a selected African nation between 2000 and 2022. The study uses the dynamic system Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) to capture the dynamic aspect of inclusive growth while also accounting for any endogeneity difficulties. The research divides the nations into three income brackets: lower income (LI), upper middle income (UMI), and lower middle income (LMI). This allows for better understanding of the implications of the digital economy and institutional quality in various economic situations. The Digital Economy Index (DEI), the Institutional Quality Index (InsQ), Gross Capital Formation (GCF), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and Official Development Assistance (ODA) were among the key variables examined. Additional approaches for verifying the model's validity and durability included panel unit root tests, cointegration tests, and diagnostic tests such as the Arellano-Bond and Hansen test. The findings revealed that institutional quality and the digital economy both make important contributions to inclusive growth, with the advantages being greater in higher-income countries. However, the effect of the digital economy varies, with Upper Middle-Income (UMI) countries experiencing the greatest significances. Furthermore, institutional quality is critical for driving growth, particularly in UMI countries. The study concludes that enhancing institutional quality and digital infrastructure is critical to promoting inclusive growth in Africa. Digital infrastructure expenditures are critical for LI countries. While UMI nations should concentrate on fostering creative settings, LMI countries should prioritize institutional improvements. These guidelines are vital for promoting equitable, long-term economic growth that transcends social class.
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The role of institutional quality in the relationship between financial development and economic growth: Emerging markets and middle-income economies
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Financial development and remittances: The role of institutional quality in developing countries
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9
- 10.1002/sd.2958
- Apr 5, 2024
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This study investigates the impact of financial development (FD) and green investments (GIs) on environmental pollution in Eastern and Southern African countries from 1990 to 2020. The research not only investigates the direct impacts of FD and green finance on environmental pollution but also examines the moderating role of institutional quality (IQ) and possible nonlinear effects of FD and green finance. Our analysis from the Panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) long‐run PMG reveals a negative association between FD, green investment, and environmental pollution, indicating that a well‐developed financial sector supports sustainable initiatives, leading to improved environmental outcomes. IQ moderates this relationship, with strong governance enhancing the positive effects of FD and green finance on environmental preservation. Interestingly, the study identifies nonlinear impacts, suggesting that beyond a certain threshold, the contributions of FD and GIs to environmental preservation may diminish. Recognizing these nonlinearities and the role of IQ can inform more targeted policies for maximizing efforts toward environmental conservation in African economies.
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- Nov 16, 2021
- iranian economic review
Present study investigates the effect of oil resource rent on financial development through the stock market. In this case, the analysis process has been accomplished in two different states: considering and ignoring the institutional quality index in oil resource rent at the values above and below the financial development threshold. The threshold structural vector autoregression (TSVAR) model has been employed to analyze the stock markets in Norway and Brazil from 1984 to 2019. In Brazil, by ignoring the institutional quality index, the resource curse hypothesis is confirmed at the values below the financial development threshold. If the institutional quality index increases, the positive oil rent shock leads to the increment of the financial development through the stock market. Therefore, the hypothesis of the resource curse is rejected in this country. In Norway, by ignoring the institutional quality, the resource curse hypothesis is confirmed at the values above the financial development threshold. If the institutional quality is considered in oil rent, a positive shock to oil rent reduces the financial development through the stock market in a short-term period. This situation increases the financial development through the stock market in a long-term period. As a result, an increase in the institutional quality contradicts the resource curse hypothesis at the values above the threshold level. In Norway, if the institutional quality in oil rent is considered, a positive shock to oil rent enhances financial development through the stock market at the values below the threshold.
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111
- 10.4236/tel.2018.811127
- Jan 1, 2018
- Theoretical Economics Letters
The roles of institutional quality on economic growth are still heavily debated in the literature. This paper investigates the impacts of institutional quality on economic growth for 29 emerging economies over the 2002-2015 period by employing System Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) estimators. We find the significant positive impacts of institutional quality on economic growth. The institutional quality impedes the positive effects of foreign direct investments (FDIs) and trade openness on economic growth. However, institutional quality improvement can mitigate the competition brought by trade openness in the areas FDIs operate to optimize their spill-over effect.
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3
- 10.17261/pressacademia.2021.1382
- Mar 30, 2021
- Pressacademia
Purpose- The aim of the research is to predict the impact of financial globalization, institutional quality and economic growth on financial development in fragile economies. In this paper the panel data consists of Turkey, Brazil, India, South Africa, Indonesia, Argentina, Egypt, Pakistan’s annual data from 1995-2017. Methodology –System GMM dynamic panel data approach has been applied to deal with simultaneity bias and endogeneity bias when the explanatory variable is correlated with the residual disturbance term. The System GMM estimator combines regression in differences with regression in levels to get rid of the individual specific effects and along with it any time invariant regressor. The models are estimated by using one step system GMM estimator in other words Arellano and Bover /Blundell and Bond System Generalized Moments Method. Findings- The results show that economic growth and financial development are positively related. Thanks to financial development interest rates can be determined by market conditions and financial intermediaries can minimize transaction costs and information acquisition costs can be minimized. Empirical findings suggest policy guidelines for developing financial sector by using economic growth as an economic instrument. Conclusion- The paper concludes that economic growth have significant impact on financial development so both financial institutions and financial markets development in fragile countries. For less developed countries, developments in institutions are likely to have far greater direct effects on growth than financial development itself. When the financial system is developed, Institutional improvements can also deliver more growth. Since global standards for institutions such as International Country Risk Guide, Global Government Indicators increase, it seems also developing ountries are aware of the importance of institutional quality on economic growth. The findings suggest that financial development is affected by economic growth, inflation and population in fragile countries.
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3
- 10.32350/jfar/0102/02
- Aug 30, 2019
- Journal of Finance and Accounting Research
The study examines the influence of financial development, fiscal policy, and institutional quality on the growth of Pakistan economy. We investigate whether financial development and or fiscal policies promote the economic growth. We also analyse the effect of institutional quality on economic growth of Pakistan. We use time series data from 1985-2016 and use GDP to proxy economic growth. We use unit-root tests to check for stationary of our sample. We perform a logarithmic transformation on the series to reduce outlier effects and use Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model. The results show that financial development and revenue have a positive impact on growth. Our study results implicate that sound, strategic, and result-oriented policies should be formulated to transform our institutions and financial sectors into well organized, powerful, and trusted frameworks. These transformations will ensure efficient and productive utilization of savings.
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48
- 10.3390/su13031038
- Jan 20, 2021
- Sustainability
This study aims to determine the role of globalization, electronic government, financial development, concerning the moderation of institutional quality in reducing income inequality and poverty in One Belt One Road countries. The electronic government and regional integration of the economies of the One Belt One Road countries has increased globalization and can play a vital role in reducing income inequality and poverty. However, this globalization and digital transformation of government systems can only be beneficial in the presence of good institutional quality. The sample includes 64 One Belt One Road countries from 2003 to 2018. We employed a two-step system generalized method of moment (Sys-GMM) and a robustness check through Driscoll–Kraay standard errors regression. Our findings show that globalization, economic growth, e-government development, government expenditure, and inflation have a statistically significant and negative impact on income inequality and are key to eradicating income inequality and poverty. On the other hand, financial development, gross capital formation, and population size positively influence income inequality, which causes an increase in poverty and income inequality as financial development and population levels increase. Moderating variable institutional quality also positively impacts income inequality, which means that institutional quality in Belt and Road Countries is weak, as they are mostly developing countries that need to improve their systems. Moreover, the marginal effect also revealed that institutional quality has a corrective effect on the factors’ relationship with income inequality. Our findings endorse and conclude that globalization and e-government development improve economic growth and eradicate poverty and income inequality by boosting digitalization, investments, job creation, and wage increases for semi-skilled and unskilled human capital in Belt and Road countries. The sustainable utilization of financial and institutional resources plays a vital role in reducing income inequality and poverty in Belt and Road countries.
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