Forecasting tsunamis in Poverty Bay, New Zealand, with deep-ocean gauges

Abstract

The response/transfer function of a coastal site to a remote open-ocean point is introduced, with the intent to directly convert open-ocean measurements into the wave time history at the site. We show that the tsunami wave at the site can be predicted as the wave is measured in the open ocean as far as 1,000+ km away from the site, with a straightforward computation which can be performed almost instantaneously. The suggested formalism is demonstrated for the purpose of tsunami forecasting in Poverty Bay, in the Gisborne region of New Zealand. Directional sensitivity of the site response due to different conditions for the excitation of the shelf and the bay’s normal modes is investigated and used to explain tsunami observations. The suggested response function formalism is validated with available records of the 2010 Chilean tsunami at Gisborne tide gauge and at the nearby deep-ocean assessment and reporting of tsunamis (DART) station 54401. The suggested technique is also demonstrated by hindcasting the 2011 Tohoku tsunami and 2012 Haida Gwaii tsunami at Monterey Bay, CA, using an offshore record of each tsunami at DART station 46411.