Abstract
The purpose of this research was to forecast next maritime depression beyond 2018. For this we used the nonlinear forecasting method: “Radial Basis Functions” [1] through the computer program NLTSA [2] allowing a prediction for 20 steps ahead. Forecasting applied to a freight rate dry cargo index since 1741 [3] and to alpha1 coefficient. The lowest alpha predicted was 1.01 in 2038. Stopford’s dry cargo index forecast will be at its lowest point, of 114 (100 = 1947) units, in 2034 and 2035. Three cycles forecast to last 5, 5, and 4 years (2019-2038). Thus shipping has to learn to live with cycles… and depressions, but perhaps it is better if knowing them in advance.
Highlights
Shipping suffers from frequent recessions, i.e. one every twelve years [3]
The purpose of this research was to forecast maritime depression beyond 2018. For this we used the nonlinear forecasting method: “Radial Basis Functions” [1] through the computer program NLTSA [2] allowing a prediction for 20 steps ahead
Forecasting applied to a freight rate dry cargo index since 1741 [3] and to alpha1 coefficient
Summary
Shipping suffers from frequent recessions, i.e. one every twelve years (on average) [3]. A shipping depression, is not as frequent, because it needs a serious percentage (greater or equal to 20%) of existing fleet to be laid-up (the shut point in economics), due to lack of demand (=seaborne trade). Goulielmos started in second half of 1981; and one which started in end-2008. The Joker is an external shock such as a war (e.g. the Yom Kippur war in 1973; the Gulf war in 1990; the Iraq war in 2003; and so on), or a canal closure (e.g. the Suez Canal closed short term in 1956 and long term in 1967-1975).
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